Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Sean K]

The BIS have now closed their short position in gold. The BIS are now actively accumulating gold as are the other CBs.

View attachment 150038

The end of paper price manipulation has pretty much arrived. There may be some attempts into January 2023, but pretty much it's over.

jog on
duc

JP Morgan might have opened some longs too.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

A number of factors will influence the POG between now and the end of January.

1. Fund managers holidays.
Most very, very rich FM's in the USA head to the Hamptons for Christmas or Hanukkah from about ten days before Christmas. Some unfortunately were forced to have an exposure to Crypto. Those who haven't lost their socks so far are desperately manipulating the price of BTC up above $USD 1700 in an attempt to get out with some grace without ending up having sat on a candle, wick side up. Watch for large volume selling of BTC next week and decisions on where to park the moolah. "Gold will do " , do I hear?

2. War in Ukraine and beyond.
The Ukranians are doing a good job of putting it right up the Russians who as Corporal Jones famously quoted "They don't like it up 'em Sir". Rumours are coming to me that all is not good in the Kremlin. The usual hangers on are set to be windowed by the more aggressive Wagnerites and Chechnyans. Unfortunately this will not lead to peace rather a ramping up of hostilities possibly involving Poland, The Baltic States, Türkiye and Georgia amongst others. Gold will benefit from the possible implications of NATO direct involvement in the War.

3. Gold has been quite resilient during Crypto's rise and fall, the favourite currency ( is it a currency? ) of mobsters, hackers, blackmailers, fraudsters, thugs, warlords, respected world leaders and those between the ages of 12 and 22 with acne. These creatures will doubtless still hold crypto enabling a market for BTC to fall benefitting Gold.

It may seem that I have tied the further rise of Gold to Crypto's fall. That is for a reason. It is tied to a fall in Crypto. The latter is a huge market with $USD Trillions still in it. All waiting to move in to Gold.

gg

 

[DaveTrade]

I got back into Gold last night at the open, above the price where I previously got out, I made the decision to trade each leg up. The gap was unfortunate for my entry point but it didn't surprise me, there are gaps all through this chart. Gaping into resistance can be a reversal point but obviously I think this is the beginning of the next leg up. We shall all see what unfolds, if I keep my risk down in the trade then I'll still be ok if it doesn't work out.
View attachment 149998

I got stopped out of this one, the resistance zone proved to be too much for the market at this time. If the new up trend holds, determined by the 50sma, then I may get another entry. The number one rule of trading the markets is that we go with the flow of the market.

 

[Sean K]

Is this like leaving the fox in charge of the chicken coop.

JPMorgan, HSBC to share custody of GLD's 900 tonnes of gold

Kitco News' general-interest stories takes a look at what is making headlines in the marketplace and how that is impacting precious metals prices

www.kitco.com

 

[aus_trader]

I suppose just like manufacturing and other ventures, US is slowly withdrawing. The JPM move could be to diversify from CCP influence...

 

[qldfrog]

I suppose just like manufacturing and other ventures, US is slowly withdrawing. The JPM move could be to diversify from CCP influence...

View attachment 150171

And this is working both way, China is rushing to get out of the us right now.
China owners of US assets are selling or disengaging.
This is good for gold as not so good for peace/the world.

 

[aus_trader]

And this is working both way, China is rushing to get out of the us right now.
China owners of US assets are selling or disengaging.
This is good for gold as not so good for peace/the world.

Good point about the peace @qldfrog,

I am going to miss the One World / Global Marketplace days ...and all those cheap manufactured goods !

I suppose on the positives you mentioned, could be good for Gold long term and maybe for the environment too with more durable goods that could last a lifetime like in the good old days. With less going to landfill with the 'use it once and throw it out' mindset these days with manufactured goods and plastic gadgets.

 

[Telamelo]

 

[ducati916]

From Zoltan Pozsar:

Zoltan Pozsar: Gold At $3,600 Is Not Improbable If US Refill Reserves With Russian Oil

In his latest dispatch, Credit Suisse contributor Zoltan Pozsar shifted focus on his ongoing series about Bretton Woods III where

thedeepdive.ca

jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

From Zoltan Pozsar:

Zoltan Pozsar: Gold At $3,600 Is Not Improbable If US Refill Reserves With Russian Oil

In his latest dispatch, Credit Suisse contributor Zoltan Pozsar shifted focus on his ongoing series about Bretton Woods III where

thedeepdive.ca

jog on
duc

It‘s an interesting theory. Likely?

 

[Telamelo]

 

[mullokintyre]

I fully expect a significant pull back tonite in the US market, as the manipulators flush out the last of the gold bugs.
Watching the action today, noticed that silver stocks in particular are having a down day despite the positive moves in Silver overnight.
Almost all of my gold stocks down or at best neutral, despite t gold having a slight increase overnight.
Once this next leg down is in, I will start adding selected gold stocks to the portfolio.
Of course, I could be completely wrong.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

I fully expect a significant pull back tonite in the US market, as the manipulators flush out the last of the gold bugs.
Watching the action today, noticed that silver stocks in particular are having a down day despite the positive moves in Silver overnight.
Almost all of my gold stocks down or at best neutral, despite t gold having a slight increase overnight.
Once this next leg down is in, I will start adding selected gold stocks to the portfolio.
Of course, I could be completely wrong.
Mick

It all seems to be trending with perception of inflation/interest rates at the moment. If there's a report that supports increased interest rates - USD up / POG down, and vickiversa.

 

[ducati916]

It all seems to be trending with perception of inflation/interest rates at the moment. If there's a report that supports increased interest rates - USD up / POG down, and vickiversa.

Increased interest rates increase the rate of inflation.

This is how it works:



With the Fed disclosing a $1.25T dollar loss, no longer is the Fed remitting interest payments to the Treasury. The Treasury has to accelerate bond issuance to make up the shortfall.

Meanwhile, via the RRP, the Fed is paying Banks $500M/day (in freshly printed reserves) to NOT lend their $2.5T+ in excess reserves, so as not to fuel further inflation.



At least QE was somewhat balanced: the Fed removed bonds for cash. Now, the Fed just prints $500M+/day to give to the banks.

The higher interest rates go, the more they pay the banks. A rising interest rate, as gold has figured out, is inflationary.

jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

Increased interest rates increase the rate of inflation.

This is how it works:

View attachment 150279

With the Fed disclosing a $1.25T dollar loss, no longer is the Fed remitting interest payments to the Treasury. The Treasury has to accelerate bond issuance to make up the shortfall.

Meanwhile, via the RRP, the Fed is paying Banks $500M/day (in freshly printed reserves) to NOT lend their $2.5T+ in excess reserves, so as not to fuel further inflation.

View attachment 150280

At least QE was somewhat balanced: the Fed removed bonds for cash. Now, the Fed just prints $500M+/day to give to the banks.

The higher interest rates go, the more they pay the banks. A rising interest rate, as gold has figured out, is inflationary.

jog on
duc

Here I was thinking that raising rates was a design to curb inflation...

 

[qldfrog]

Here I was thinking that raising rates was a design to curb inflation...

Raising rate is a design to curb consumption and cool economies, Weimar economy or Zimbabwe during Mugabe had high even hyper inflation yet we can not really say that either had too much consumption or heated economies.ROL
Not all inflations are the same IMHO..

 

[qldfrog]

Raising rate is a design to curb consumption and cool economies, Weimar economy or Zimbabwe during Mugabe had high even hyper inflation yet we can not really say that either had too much consumption or heated economies.ROL
Not all inflations are the same IMHO..

I did not mention also the raising of rate to counter a local currency collapse but that is not relevant currently

 

[divs4ever]

Good point about the peace @qldfrog,

I am going to miss the One World / Global Marketplace days ...and all those cheap manufactured goods !

I suppose on the positives you mentioned, could be good for Gold long term and maybe for the environment too with more durable goods that could last a lifetime like in the good old days. With less going to landfill with the 'use it once and throw it out' mindset these days with manufactured goods and plastic gadgets.

the market place might be dearer , but the products will be more suited to local supply and demand ( and possibly shorter supply chains )

 

[eskys]

We have golden pears today

 

[Sean K]

$1800 causing trouble.