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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Well the last few wagons of the Gumnut Goldtrain are at last coming back close to profit.


Trying to second and third guess the POG with the USD and AUD can be quite a pain. I wouldn't want to be depending on it for a short term punt.

Much as I have nothing against Mrs Pelosi I was hoping she would do an Ivana Trump fall on the turps down the stairs at the American Embassy in Taiwan, without her having to end up 6 yards wide of the hole at the first green at Bedminster of course.

gg
 
he is just selling hype.

few months back he saying Bitcoin would go to 500k lol and gold would drop by half.

Once the FED started rolling back the QE measures in November you could already predict there be a taper tantrum/correction(has happened everytime the life support been taken off post GFC, add in rate hikes in march and its a recipe for hard landing/stagflation with FED so far behind inflation.

Yes FED will have to PIVOT and print again at some stage if Biden stays on, its just crazy to hike rates into a technical recession.

I believe POG will follow markets down for the rest of the year and likely very sharp and big rebound next year when the bad stagflation hits and FED is forced to pivot and print again and everyone starts realising cash is trash and runs into gold, as per monetary supply calculations unless FED does 6-7% rate rises, inflation will be above 6% till at least middle/late 2023.

1970s all over again baby!
"Let's dance, let's shout
Shake your body down to the ground"
 
Well it is all happening tonight.

  • China raising the ante on Taiwan.
  • US Job numbers surprise greatly to the upside.
  • USD rises against all currencies incl. AUD
Gold lost 1.3% in under an hour.

The AUD lost 1.3% in under an hour.

Percentages all approx. I'm none too good at subtraction nor long division.

So as of now.

Gold USD $1770
AUD $2574

gg
 
Just a warning to those trading Gold that spoofing is becoming a major problem.

For an explanation please google "spoofing gold" or read this article from kitco.com and follow yer nose.

CFTC charges World Series of Poker player with manipulating gold and silver markets

www.kitco.com

It is unfortunately not done just by shysters like Shak who features in the article but also by large criminal organisations and JPMorgan Chase, the latter are defending a case at the moment. I presume other merchant banks are involved as well. The large merchant and fund houses are really just legal large criminal organisations.

So buyer beware.

It is another reason why I stick to physical and avoid derivatives or futures in Gold.

gg
 

An update on these charts;


 

Powell comments fuel 1,000-point market rout Friday as stocks slide for a second week

The Fed Chair delivered a hawkish speech outlining the central bank's campaign to rein in rising prices.
www.cnbc.com

Gold mining stocks fall sharply​

In an ugly day for the markets overall, gold mining stocks are taking it on the chin.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF has fallen more than 5%, underperforming the major market averages. The fund has now fallen more than 38% from its recent peak in early April.
Several individual mining stocks were down more than 7%, including Coeur Mining and IAMGOLD.
Gold settled down 1.22% for the day, notching a negative week for the precious metal.
—Jesse Pound, Gina Francolla
 
Just a different perspective on the POG.



Gold is doing its thing. Pretty much nothing safer.

Silver is the obvious play here if you enjoy living a little on the wild side.

If you are looking for long term protection from the excesses of government then:



Now the 'official' figures are arguable. However for this purpose I'll simply accept them.

If you bought silver in 1969 at $5oz you would have 20oz worth $375.60. So it doesn't really protect you that well.
If you bought gold at $35oz you would have had 2.850z worth $4989.70 today. Absolutely swamping the dollar value of $780.21

However:

Periodically, silver goes on a % tear as against gold (both being money) and at that point, holding silver and converting into gold is a good speculation.



jog on
duc
 

I was a tiny bit (~2%) underweight gold and thought it'd be cute to buy some AEM instead of PHYS (or heading all the way to the city for a bullion buy).

Stayed up past my bedtime to buy the NYSE open on Thursday night to nearly perfectly top tick the entry at $46 ?



Meanwhile...
 
A lot of people were calling a breakout around the blue circle above 1850 ish, me included, then it hit the previous high and imploded. Maybe JP Morgan's work. That big C&H we were talking about that would propel POG to 2600 looks a tenuous idea at the moment. Fingers crossed that blue line holds.

Having said that, a lot of producing gold miners are flush with cash and have an AISC well below the $1400 mark.

 
I'm carrying a large insurance policy @Sean K on my other investments via Gold which despite all the moves on stocks and commodities does not seem like money well spent should Gold dip below US$1680, which I believe was touched a little while ago ( I'll have to check ).

Having said that I will sell if the low is breached and be happy to have paid my commission. I did make some kopeks leading up to the point you mentioned, so it is not all doom.



If anyone does happen to know what the future is could they possibly DM me.

I will of course hold atm. as my losses are not overly significant though not insignificant on Gold due to the lower AUD and I only have one golder GOR in a small trading account.

It is a crazy world, topsy turvy, with no obvious precedents.

So for gawds sake don't anyone do their own research. It will be as bad as the muppets who get paid for publishing recommendations.

gg
 
I still have down bias on GLD at the moment but how it reacts to the support zone below will be telling. There is a glimmer of hope that this zone may hold and turn the market up, take a look at the daily chart below.


On the daily chart it looks like it will reach the support zone at a higher strength level than it had the last time it was there around mid July. This gives some positive divergence on strength.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
So for gawds sake don't anyone do their own research. It will be as bad as the muppets who get paid for publishing recommendations.
Click to expand...
It's a bit of a quandary...
Pro's & cons both ways.
Long term chart looks like it could easily test $1600, possibly $1500.

Boiling it down to the simplest denominator;
With the price being up from mid 2019, the supply side would/ should be kicking in quite well by now.
Hard to get decent stats for covid years to prove this though, however world production was on the rise into 2019 then obviously eased off, despite the higher prices, but the supply flurry is definitely on now.
I would think demand is depressed.
Reduced manufacturing, supply & transport bottlenecks, inflation/ cost of living etc.

Is there any macro pro's I'm missing that are going to reverse it and push it up?
Just my
 
as a gold bull, I hate to say you are probably right ,until Fiats completely lose it..just a few bank runs, couple of internet major outages locking card usage and cash access from atm and etc..but could take a couple of years
 
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