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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Garpal Gumnut said:

gg
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Each to their own GG. But, have a look at the USD/JPY vs XAU/USD. I don't know about you, but I see a strong negative correlation.



Plus, I'm bullish on the USD/JPY. So either the USD/JPY and XAU/USD are going to move out of their inverse correlation into lockstep for the first time in well.. forever, or in my opinion their correlation will hold and we will see weakness in the XAU/USD.

Also take a look at the Yen Futures vs. the USD/JPY. Almost a -1.0 correlation here and nothing looks bullish in regards to the Yen Futs.

Bullish USD/JPY. Bearish Yen Futs and XAU/USD.

 
Garpal Gumnut said:

gg
Click to expand...
i disagree , while i hope gold ( price ) explodes into the stratosphere , , Friday's US trading ( in stocks particularly ) looked like the Plunge Protection Team breaking out the big weapons .. and despite all logic it also looks like cash flowing into US Treasuries

i say beware of treachery ( way beyond the usual deceit )
 
Cam019 said:
@DaveTrade looking at GLD I would be expecting price to come back to at least the level marked which is $167.99 - $169.10.

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I hear what you both are saying.

Let us see how Mr. Market takes it all on Monday.

Nobody really knows, there will be wild swings in everything.

gg
 
The COMEX price is actually only half a price because (a) it is leveraged and manipulated and (b) takes no account of the physical market. Basel III has reduced the use of unallocated gold in ratcheting the leverage much higher (100:1) as now the only unallocated gold that can primarily be used is the GLD unallocated.

Fundamental demand continues to underpin gold:







This is just Chinese retail.

Central Bank demand is opaque, but believed to be much higher. Add in the rest of the world's CB demand (Russia, Germany, et al) and the COMEX price can be seen to be quite misleading.

Here is the manipulation:



Notice overall the significant loss of volume. This is the loss of paper leverage due to Basel III and as the various bullion banks became compliant through mid 2021.

jog on
duc
 
This champagne cork will pop off sooner or later, we have
- nazis on the front door of Europe
- mad leader seeing red over his personal emotions
- has real nukes
- world is taking sides

this is no Kimberly from the north with a few plastic toy missiles who half the world laughs at
 
POG is now overstretched, but the Ukranian crisis could propel it a lot higher near term. Here's the hourly trend for the past month:


How NATO cannot intervene after Russia's indiscriminate shelling of civilians las night is a mystery.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Another jump of the hurdle last night as seen on this hourly chart:

Assuming a continuation of this short term uptrend then POG hits$2000 again before end of March.
Not that I ever get my preference, but some consolidation around current levels would be handy so that we don't see another rapid bout of profit taking.

(the white band above is perfectly horizontal but this type of chart lends itself to an optical illusion that slopes it down on the right)
 
For what it is worth GLD has made a pretty reasonable Elliott Wave cycle over the past 20 years which suggests to me it is breaking up out of Wave 4 into Wave 5 - which theory says should head back above $2,100 on this chart. With Ukraine likely to be an ongoing issue for a time - even if Putin wins the battle he may eventually loose the war (we can hope!). Gold, as a safe haven, should push higher in that environment.
 
Thanks @Sean K

Gold has traditionally been "Buy Local".

I may be old fashioned but it is a store of wealth or fear of lost wealth in local currency. In war it is worth what it gets me NOW.

I prefer $AUD2843.

gg
 
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