Mofra said:reich,
US$200? Some would consider that an extremely bullish outlook on world finances & the US$ in particular. Just wondering is that a chart based view or on fundamentals?
So let me get this right... You are saying that the XJO is headed down big time and that the top was in March this year but that the US markets may be propped up by the PPT?reichstag911 said:...The corrupt fascist junta have ramped the U.S. market nicely since the massive bear market that started in 2000 - and may continue to do so for a long time before it can't prop it up anymore.
But that might not happen til next decade.
The PPT is alive and well and should never be underestimated.
USA will be fighting for its survival after all.
It will lose to Chindia but hey that's life !
My long term U.S. charts indicate that the DOW will prolly break down BIG TIME around 2012-2014: MAJOR BEAR PARTY TIME.
IF it's a deflationary depression - everything may get pulled down with it including PM's.
Tasty bear-fest coming up for later this year to 06/07 : )
It's a big wave 4 down for Australia.
XJO topped in March 05 which i called in March 05...
(posted it at newsgroup)
Cheers.
brerwallabi said:Is this the turnaround for gold now, starting to work its way back up, next week looks like the testing time, its being following oil closely lately so expect a big jump next week.
Could there be a gold boom?
RichKid said:Gold is on the retreat again but the bottoms are getting higher and higher. It should really start to test those resistance levels above USD400 in the next few months. (currently looking to break below 400).
Anyone out there still very bullish on gold? I'm hoping to get leverage via some of the smaller gold stocks.
RichKid
wayneL said:Latest available COT data
Comm's are nett short, but coming off lows, seems a short signal has not come off. So must mean long1
brerwallabi said:Gold Where is it heading?
Answer $500 US before Xmas watch LHG and CMX fly today.
Mining Weekly- News Today
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/today/?show=77663
Debate rages over sustainability of gold's assault on $500/oz
The gold price, which yesterday touched a near 18-year high of over $482/oz, appears to be continuing its steady assault on the magical $500/oz level, with bulls still outnumbering bears.
But analysts are mixed as to whether the march can be sustained.
T-SEC gold analyst Nick Goodwin takes a bearish stance, saying that hedge funds and speculators have pushed it to its current level, and that a sharp drop should not be discounted.
Speculative buying, which results in rapid upswings, could see selling at the top of the curve, without any buyers. As an example, Goodwin cites India, which buys a third of the world's gold. The market in India is driven by jewellery makers, who are loathe to buy at current levels.
So, argues Goodwin, the dynamics of supply and demand will see the price falling back sharply.
This situation is enhanced by the fact that these buyers also hold gold in reserve and India has a healthy scrap market.
For the full year, the World Gold Council expected demand from India to push up to 850 t, an increase of about 230 t on last year. Already, the first half of the year saw demand in India up 180 t year-on-year, but the second-half seems to be slowing down somewhat. However, as the jewellery makers evaporate from the market, the price will drop sharply - even though it may have been pushed to $500 - and shares will bear the brunt of this fall, as they tend to outrun the gold price.
Not so, says a bullish David Davis, gold analyst at Andisa Securities, in his paper 'The Future of Gold'. Davis predicts gold at $700/oz by the end of 2008 and, by the end of the decade he forecasts that the yellow-metal would have risen to $800/oz.
In the third quarter of the year, the yellow metal averaged $439,72, a 3% quarter-on-quarter increase.
By the end of next year, he says, gold will have marched to $600.
Davis bases his predictions on supply-and-demand dynamics, which are predicted to “undergo irreversible change, caused by a decline in global mine and Central Bank supply and increased demand from China and investment”.
Supply-and-demand factors could - on their own - “trigger a quantum upward charge in the gold price, enough to sustain a new dollar gold price equilibrium”.
And if this was not enough to push the price upwards, Davis argues that the US dollar will continue to underpin the price and push it further.
The reason for the price moving to stratospheric highs, says Davis, is that supply is falling behind demand and no substantial new reserves are being found to replace dying mines.
While not a new phenomenon, he says that this phenomenon has previously been hidden behind hedging and Reserve Bank sales.
But, this cannot happen ad infinitum and, when the turnaround comes, the gold price will move up rapidly.
With too little exploration, dwindling reserves, dying mines and shortened life-of-mine, Davis sees a recipe for gold's profitability into the future.
And then there is China; this red-hot economy is likely to keep growing its demand for commodities, although it has stabilised from its recent growth patterns. Despite this, the country is likely to double its economy in the next ten years.
Another bear is MD of Barclays Capital's Mining and Metals division, Gerard Holden. Speaking at an Absa Corporate and Merchant Bank resource breakfast this week he called the peak at current levels.
“In the case of gold, we believe that this price move will peak around current levels with a reduction back to $350 (an ounce to) $375 per ounce in the medium term.”
However, he did temper that statement with a warning: “Now I need to caution that an unexpected event which damages global economic growth or raises global tension would impact upon these price outlooks.”
Respected precious-metals observer Paul Walker, who leads Gold Fields Mineral Services, echoes Davis's sentiments that the gold price is sustainable.
In response to emailed questions, he tells Mining Weekly Online that the gold price will continue its march over $500, and this march is sustainable.
He adds, however, that a “lack of Indian demand at high prices will constrain the highs somewhat, as will higher scrap (prices)”.
He confirms that much of the volatility in the price is due to speculators.
Another dimension to the debate was added in the inaugural edition of the 'Yellow Book' released this month where Gary Mead looks at the outlook for gold over the next 12 to 18 months.
He says the greatest unknown is how far and for how long the hedge funds will be prepared to keep the current momentum going.
“What goes up eventually will come down; but it may go much higher and perhaps even break through $500 an ounce in 2006, before it does come down,” Mead writes, adding that he foresees an average 2006 price of $430 an ounce.
RichKid said:The last gold chart I posted would show that gold has hit the upper boundary of that channel, so it either bounces downwards gradually in the opposite direction (circa 440/450) or it pullsback (as it has so far) and then spikes through the channel top- according to previous price action.
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