Gold Price - Where is it heading?
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading
I also sat through a presentation from two analysts regarding gold and oil. The gold analyst basically showed that production is slowing down due to gold mines in the US and South African mines being depleted (Australia is the other major producer), and new production centres in third world countries not being as rich. Also there are major concerns about infrastructure and politacal instability in those third world countries.
The oil analyst basically showed that US demand for oil was outstripping supply, and future projections showed a continuing widening of the demand and supply graph.
This could cause major problems for the US deficit which has been growing in proportion to the rise of Gold prices, and the falling US dollar.
I also sat through a presentation from two analysts regarding gold and oil. The gold analyst basically showed that production is slowing down due to gold mines in the US and South African mines being depleted (Australia is the other major producer), and new production centres in third world countries not being as rich. Also there are major concerns about infrastructure and politacal instability in those third world countries.
The oil analyst basically showed that US demand for oil was outstripping supply, and future projections showed a continuing widening of the demand and supply graph.
This could cause major problems for the US deficit which has been growing in proportion to the rise of Gold prices, and the falling US dollar.
brerwallabi
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading
February 23 (DowJones/MarketWatch) -- Comex April gold futures solidified their recent press higher Wednesday by confirming support at the $433-per-ounce level and ending the session above the $436 mark for the first time in 2005. April gold closed up 30 cents $436.10. The benchmark contract added 1.7 percent in Tuesday's dealings. In a bullish sign for the precious metal, gold held firm despite a modest recovery in the U.S. dollar. "A day of consolidation is by no means a bad thing with $428 to $432 now likely to be an area of support rather than resistance," said James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com. "The market simply needs to hold above $430.50 to keep the rally intact," market analyst Dale Doelling said...
GOLD is going heading to $450 and then beyond, and some of the little's will be doubling in price do some research quick and get on for some fast bucks,gold could well go $500 and beyond and the Aussie price will drag along with it, who thought that our market would break 4000 and head towards 4200, do some fast investigative work on gold and you might be suprised on how it is viewed, anyway thats enough raving from me
February 23 (DowJones/MarketWatch) -- Comex April gold futures solidified their recent press higher Wednesday by confirming support at the $433-per-ounce level and ending the session above the $436 mark for the first time in 2005. April gold closed up 30 cents $436.10. The benchmark contract added 1.7 percent in Tuesday's dealings. In a bullish sign for the precious metal, gold held firm despite a modest recovery in the U.S. dollar. "A day of consolidation is by no means a bad thing with $428 to $432 now likely to be an area of support rather than resistance," said James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com. "The market simply needs to hold above $430.50 to keep the rally intact," market analyst Dale Doelling said...
GOLD is going heading to $450 and then beyond, and some of the little's will be doubling in price do some research quick and get on for some fast bucks,gold could well go $500 and beyond and the Aussie price will drag along with it, who thought that our market would break 4000 and head towards 4200, do some fast investigative work on gold and you might be suprised on how it is viewed, anyway thats enough raving from me
brerwallabi
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading
Anybody got any thoughts on where the $US is heading, if you look at the recent decline of the US dollar from 7th Feb that is when gold headed north again. The IMF dump looks definately off and was never going happen anyway, so my view is the $450 could be tested again very soon, once it brakes through and when and if $450 becomes the new support, a few little Aussie explorers and near producers may have a lot of new interest, holding a couple big risers hopefully. If you dont have a junior goldie in your portfolio nows the time to get in. My opinion and not advice in any form.
Anybody got any thoughts on where the $US is heading, if you look at the recent decline of the US dollar from 7th Feb that is when gold headed north again. The IMF dump looks definately off and was never going happen anyway, so my view is the $450 could be tested again very soon, once it brakes through and when and if $450 becomes the new support, a few little Aussie explorers and near producers may have a lot of new interest, holding a couple big risers hopefully. If you dont have a junior goldie in your portfolio nows the time to get in. My opinion and not advice in any form.
RichKid
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading
Gold looks good, especially for unhedged local juniors with the Aussie stabilizing. I think it may spike again but then retreat, so a small opportunity there before retreats and really runs hard at 500 in the medium turn. Good to see it above 430, favours the bulls imo.
Gold looks good, especially for unhedged local juniors with the Aussie stabilizing. I think it may spike again but then retreat, so a small opportunity there before retreats and really runs hard at 500 in the medium turn. Good to see it above 430, favours the bulls imo.
Re: GOLD Where is it heading
I just read in afr.com that china has flagged it may "unexpectedly introduce policies to implement flexible exchange rate" - but article seems to have dissapeared (under textiles/flashing red light or something).
Go BSG/BGF/your favourite spec gold stock.
(though spot gold seems to be going south at the moment)
I just read in afr.com that china has flagged it may "unexpectedly introduce policies to implement flexible exchange rate" - but article seems to have dissapeared (under textiles/flashing red light or something).
Go BSG/BGF/your favourite spec gold stock.
(though spot gold seems to be going south at the moment)
RichKid
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading
Gold has had a small spurt recently, still generally up but threatening to retrace. Seems to have some correlation to oil, despite all the market turmoil recently it hasn't risen as much as you'd think for a safe haven commodity/currency. I expected a short term drop in oil based on the higher recent bottoms and the double top before another spurt but oil has risen a bit sooner than I anticipated so perhaps the same for gold? or another drop for gold before rising for the next oil spike?
Gold has had a small spurt recently, still generally up but threatening to retrace. Seems to have some correlation to oil, despite all the market turmoil recently it hasn't risen as much as you'd think for a safe haven commodity/currency. I expected a short term drop in oil based on the higher recent bottoms and the double top before another spurt but oil has risen a bit sooner than I anticipated so perhaps the same for gold? or another drop for gold before rising for the next oil spike?
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading up in 2nd half of year
At the moment I believe we are seeing an opportunity to add to or build up positions in the gold mining stocks here and also in the US
The current bull market in gold has seen rallies in the 2nd half of the year for the last 3 years and I believe we will see that continue and test $500 towards the end of the year
Duetsche Bank has suggested $525 this year as possible from some sources I've heard
Worth watching to add positions on any pullbacks over May and June
R/
bvb
At the moment I believe we are seeing an opportunity to add to or build up positions in the gold mining stocks here and also in the US
The current bull market in gold has seen rallies in the 2nd half of the year for the last 3 years and I believe we will see that continue and test $500 towards the end of the year
Duetsche Bank has suggested $525 this year as possible from some sources I've heard
Worth watching to add positions on any pullbacks over May and June
R/
bvb
Re: GOLD Where is it heading
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/...SMUL&s=DX&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=BAR&d=MEDIUM
Interesting. Gold seems to have gapped up, without a lot of weakness in US$/DX (though we may see more weakness today/tomorrow).
Also, copper had big fall in LME. Copper had been moving somewhat as a proxy for gold.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/...SMUL&s=DX&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=BAR&d=MEDIUM
Interesting. Gold seems to have gapped up, without a lot of weakness in US$/DX (though we may see more weakness today/tomorrow).
Also, copper had big fall in LME. Copper had been moving somewhat as a proxy for gold.
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GOLD .... WHERE IT IS REALLY HEADED !
GOLD .... WHERE IT IS REALLY HEADED !
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOOK HERE ... LOOK HERE ////
SO MUCH TALK ABOUT GOLD ........ WELL ,THIS POST WILL CONTAIN 2 CHARTS LONGER TERM
HERE IS SOMETHING PROFOUND TO LOOK AT .....
IF YOU HAVE ANY UNDERSTANDING OF FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LINES THIS CHART WILL MAKE SENSE TO YOU .........
50 % RETRACEMENT REPRESENTS AN EQUILIBRIUM ....
WHAT IS THIS CHART TELLING ME ? IT SIMPLE.........
ALL THE EQUITY MARKETS IN THE WORLD ARE GOING TO HAVE A PROBLEM GOING FORWARD ........
GOLD .... WHERE IT IS REALLY HEADED !
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOOK HERE ... LOOK HERE ////
SO MUCH TALK ABOUT GOLD ........ WELL ,THIS POST WILL CONTAIN 2 CHARTS LONGER TERM
HERE IS SOMETHING PROFOUND TO LOOK AT .....
IF YOU HAVE ANY UNDERSTANDING OF FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LINES THIS CHART WILL MAKE SENSE TO YOU .........
50 % RETRACEMENT REPRESENTS AN EQUILIBRIUM ....
WHAT IS THIS CHART TELLING ME ? IT SIMPLE.........
ALL THE EQUITY MARKETS IN THE WORLD ARE GOING TO HAVE A PROBLEM GOING FORWARD ........
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading
Thanks for the charts MW. Thats a very good long term view of gold. I had a friend who told me four/five years ago that gold was the way to go. He had a whole garage full and left the Citibank energy derivatives desk to trade for someone in the top 200 rich list. This rich guy liquidated all his business assets (firing everyone) and entrusted my friend with it all.
Looking back, I wish I had taken his advice.
Oh, and he also said he could see gold reaching 1k per gm.
Thanks for the charts MW. Thats a very good long term view of gold. I had a friend who told me four/five years ago that gold was the way to go. He had a whole garage full and left the Citibank energy derivatives desk to trade for someone in the top 200 rich list. This rich guy liquidated all his business assets (firing everyone) and entrusted my friend with it all.
Looking back, I wish I had taken his advice.
Oh, and he also said he could see gold reaching 1k per gm.
RichKid
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading
Judging from the chart and from comments I've heard from Comsec chartists the next bottom will be the high 300's ie around 380, but 400 will be stubborn.
So around 400 will be the stage to top up for the next rally imo. I'd wait for the countertrend reversal ie to bounce off support.
Judging from the chart and from comments I've heard from Comsec chartists the next bottom will be the high 300's ie around 380, but 400 will be stubborn.
So around 400 will be the stage to top up for the next rally imo. I'd wait for the countertrend reversal ie to bounce off support.
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading
On the current softening in the price of gold,
Does anyone know if the French Reserve went ahead with their plan to sell 200 tonnes of gold? If so surely that would be having the influence on world markets we are seeing currently.
Personally I believe the gold price will soften however must not be far away from a bottom - reading about Greenspan calling the revaluation of the yuan an inevitability, surely this will effect the US$ and hence the price of gold
On the current softening in the price of gold,
Does anyone know if the French Reserve went ahead with their plan to sell 200 tonnes of gold? If so surely that would be having the influence on world markets we are seeing currently.
Personally I believe the gold price will soften however must not be far away from a bottom - reading about Greenspan calling the revaluation of the yuan an inevitability, surely this will effect the US$ and hence the price of gold
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading
Gold is definately topping / has topped and after extensive distribution will pullback to 375 and maybe 200 ish before taking off proper.
Gold is definately topping / has topped and after extensive distribution will pullback to 375 and maybe 200 ish before taking off proper.
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading
reich,
US$200? Some would consider that an extremely bullish outlook on world finances & the US$ in particular. Just wondering is that a chart based view or on fundamentals?
reich,
US$200? Some would consider that an extremely bullish outlook on world finances & the US$ in particular. Just wondering is that a chart based view or on fundamentals?
brerwallabi
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading
The US current account deficit will probably lead to a sharp drop in the dollar, OECD economists are predicting. They have actually modelled a 30% fall in the dollar's value against other currencies, it found such a drop would generate inflationary pressures that would likely be met with increases in interest rates.
Can anyone see this resulting in the coresponding increase in the POG, am I being over optimistic. The other impact of a dollar fall could be devasting for economies, also our Aussie residential property market and the sharemarket, looks to me like cash and gold could be looking good.
The US current account deficit will probably lead to a sharp drop in the dollar, OECD economists are predicting. They have actually modelled a 30% fall in the dollar's value against other currencies, it found such a drop would generate inflationary pressures that would likely be met with increases in interest rates.
Can anyone see this resulting in the coresponding increase in the POG, am I being over optimistic. The other impact of a dollar fall could be devasting for economies, also our Aussie residential property market and the sharemarket, looks to me like cash and gold could be looking good.
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading
My view is that we have seen the bottom for the USD for quite a while. This is based on both charts and observed sentiment over the past 9 months or so which to me strongly suggests a bottom.
The US deficits have received a lot of attention but there are countries in a far worse position as far as their Current Account position is concerned. These are the ones whose currencies ought to be avoided. These countries are called "New Zealand" and, the worst one is called "Australia".
I am not holding or buying gold right now but if I was then I would either get physical or trade in a way that gains if gold rises in AUSTRALIAN Dollars. In contrast, those who have profited from gold in recent times have done so because it has risen in US Dollars. In Aussie Dollars it's gone basically nowhere. This will change if the USD has bottomed.
This is opinion not investment advice, do your own research etc.
My view is that we have seen the bottom for the USD for quite a while. This is based on both charts and observed sentiment over the past 9 months or so which to me strongly suggests a bottom.
The US deficits have received a lot of attention but there are countries in a far worse position as far as their Current Account position is concerned. These are the ones whose currencies ought to be avoided. These countries are called "New Zealand" and, the worst one is called "Australia".
I am not holding or buying gold right now but if I was then I would either get physical or trade in a way that gains if gold rises in AUSTRALIAN Dollars. In contrast, those who have profited from gold in recent times have done so because it has risen in US Dollars. In Aussie Dollars it's gone basically nowhere. This will change if the USD has bottomed.
This is opinion not investment advice, do your own research etc.
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