Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[noirua]

Gold slides! Monday may see a reversal by gold stocks: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={F9467C75-1D43-499A-B349-16C878D25E3C}

 

[bean]

I AM A GOLD AND SIVER BUG -- i AM 100% CASH AS OF FRIDAY.
GOLD HAS NOT BOTTOMED THE MARKET HAS NOT BOTTOMED.
AND EVERYONE IS STILL SO COMPLACEMENT, THAT TO ME SPELLS CRASH
I HOPE I AM RIGHT BECAUSE FOR EXAMPLE BOUGHT MMN FOR ABOUT .31 ABOUT 10 TRADING DAYS AGO SOLD FRIDAY @ .295 A LOSS.
BUT I WILL NOW PUT BIDS IN @ .25 OR LESS (TAKE EACH DAY AS IT COMES )
I SOLD SOME GOLD STOCK AND WILL ALSO BE PUTTING BIDS IN AT 10-30% LESS THAN THEY ARE NOW.
GOLD AND GOLD STOCK ARE GOING DOWN -- WITH THE MARKET..
IF NO RISE OVERSEAS MARKET MONDAY NIGHT THEN TUESDAY NIGHT IS GOING TO BE UGLY.
I KNOW THAT GOLD IS GOING DOWN SO I GATHER THE MARKETS WILL BE JOINING IN.
I ALSO HOPE I AM WRONG, I DO NOT WANT TO SEE PEOPLE LOSE MONEY, BUT LAST WEEK WILL SEEM SMALL BY COMPARISION.

 

[CanOz]

I AM A GOLD AND SIVER BUG -- i AM 100% CASH AS OF FRIDAY.
GOLD HAS NOT BOTTOMED THE MARKET HAS NOT BOTTOMED.
AND EVERYONE IS STILL SO COMPLACEMENT, THAT TO ME SPELLS CRASH
I HOPE I AM RIGHT BECAUSE FOR EXAMPLE BOUGHT MMN FOR ABOUT .31 ABOUT 10 TRADING DAYS AGO SOLD FRIDAY @ .295 A LOSS.
BUT I WILL NOW PUT BIDS IN @ .25 OR LESS (TAKE EACH DAY AS IT COMES )
I SOLD SOME GOLD STOCK AND WILL ALSO BE PUTTING BIDS IN AT 10-30% LESS THAN THEY ARE NOW.
GOLD AND GOLD STOCK ARE GOING DOWN -- WITH THE MARKET..
IF NO RISE OVERSEAS MARKET MONDAY NIGHT THEN TUESDAY NIGHT IS GOING TO BE UGLY.
I KNOW THAT GOLD IS GOING DOWN SO I GATHER THE MARKETS WILL BE JOINING IN.
I ALSO HOPE I AM WRONG, I DO NOT WANT TO SEE PEOPLE LOSE MONEY, BUT LAST WEEK WILL SEEM SMALL BY COMPARISION.

Gold is getting ugly because of investors liquidating assests to cover losses from the Yen carry trade, correct? Was it on here that i read that or in the AFR?

At some point, buyers should re enter, correct? Where's Doom?

 

[CanOz]

"The carry unwinding" is a part of the reason for gold's decline, said Neal Ryan, director of economic research at Blanchard. That "will eventually be positive for the market, but it'll sting a bit at first."
"Combining the need for capital because of margin calls on funds, yen carry unwinding and some relentless selling and shorting from large commercials on the market who realized the precious metals were susceptible to these drops has hurt as well," he said in e-mailed comments.
"Investors are retreating into cash and hiding until there are some signs that the volatility is dissipating from the market," he said.

Yeah, thats a good article that noirua posted. Basically says what i read somehwere else too.

So it will eventually be positive for the market. I'm seriously considering buying some "GOLD" stock on the ASX once it bouces.

Cheers,

 

[CanOz]

Are you putting those numbers in Goldbug, or is it from another practicioner? I'm fairly new to EW, but I am struggling to see why you have put your waves where they are. Looks pretty random to me.

Me too guys, from i've learned about EW, this is contrary to say the least. Curious as to where your learning this Goldbug.

Cheers,

 

[wavepicker]

Me too guys, from i've learned about EW, this is contrary to say the least. Curious as to where your learning this Goldbug.

Cheers,

I totally agree with his comments. In fact liquidated my Gold positions in April last year and have done various trades in the choppy market since the peak, as was execting the pattern of trend that has approximately played out, having a stab as to what it would most likely look like in last June.

Still don't think this correction is quite over, with more sideways/downward bias till the 8.5 year cycle bottoms in 2008. Last April when this peaked it was evident that the this market will struggle for 1-2 years until that cycle bottomed. (I should note that a cycle bottom does not necessarily coincide with a price bottom, but a cycle bottom will most likely keep price stalling and retesting correction lows). What made it more convincing was that we had a completed 5 wave structure to the upside. This was textbook impulse and charted the way it's supposed to be as per what is advised in Elliott Wave Principle-Key To Market Behaviour by Frost and Prechter, using a logscale to when constructing the channeling fro commodities, as they usually have quite long extended 5th wave as buying is more fear based.



https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=23&pp=20

post # 446 & 454




https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=28&pp=20

post #559

 

[Magdoran]

Are you putting those numbers in Goldbug, or is it from another practicioner? I'm fairly new to EW, but I am struggling to see why you have put your waves where they are. Looks pretty random to me.

What teachings are you following Gold Bug ?

I have never seen counts like yours before, even if you aren't using Fib retracements.

Not saying they are wrong, just alien to me.

Me too guys, from i've learned about EW, this is contrary to say the least. Curious as to where your learning this Goldbug.

Cheers,

The charts Goldbug is posting is generated by Hubb’s “Profitsource” which was their answer to “Advanced GET”. It uses an internally generated Elliott count based on an algorithm in part based on moving averages, and program Elliott Wave rules.

The time and price level marker shown on the charts is known as the “range projector” which was largely developed along the lines of Advanced GET’s “MOB” (Make or break) tool designed to calculate Fibonacci generated price targets from pivot points, and uses a kind of Fibonacci time extension from key pivot points to work out the time element of the projection.

The EW count is a rough computer generated approximation of EW rules, but in many cases cannot replace a gifted human EW practitioner, and the algorithms can’t really identify patterns like ending diagonals and nesting patterns, as well as a host of other finer areas of technical analysis.

The range projector and MOB both work reasonably well if you know how to use them and are reasonably good at T/A, but rely on the limitations of the programming, and are Fibonacci based.

It is interesting that Profitsource sees LHG as bullish, and OXR as bearish… but that’s what a software generated analysis will deliver sometimes.


Hence Goldbug is probably just posting up what Profitsource has generated… is that right GB?


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. So Goldbug, are you a practitioner of EW, or just a recent user of the software? (I suspect the latter – if so, you will encounter high levels of scrutiny here, since some of the posters that questioned your count are seasoned practitioners, some probably the best in Australia, so if you recently attended a basic EW course in conjunction with the software, prepare to have your eyes well and truly opened – EW is much much more than this). Mag.

 

[Goldbug]

The charts Goldbug is posting is generated by Hubb’s “Profitsource” which was their answer to “Advanced GET”. It uses an internally generated Elliott count based on an algorithm in part based on moving averages, and program Elliott Wave rules.

The time and price level marker shown on the charts is known as the “range projector” which was largely developed along the lines of Advanced GET’s “MOB” (Make or break) tool designed to calculate Fibonacci generated price targets from pivot points, and uses a kind of Fibonacci time extension from key pivot points to work out the time element of the projection.

The EW count is a rough computer generated approximation of EW rules, but in many cases cannot replace a gifted human EW practitioner, and the algorithms can’t really identify patterns like ending diagonals and nesting patterns, as well as a host of other finer areas of technical analysis.

The range projector and MOB both work reasonably well if you know how to use them and are reasonably good at T/A, but rely on the limitations of the programming, and are Fibonacci based.

It is interesting that Profitsource sees LHG as bullish, and OXR as bearish… but that’s what a software generated analysis will deliver sometimes.


Hence Goldbug is probably just posting up what Profitsource has generated… is that right GB?


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. So Goldbug, are you a practitioner of EW, or just a recent user of the software? (I suspect the latter – if so, you will encounter high levels of scrutiny here, since some of the posters that questioned your count are seasoned practitioners, some probably the best in Australia, so if you recently attended a basic EW course in conjunction with the software, prepare to have your eyes well and truly opened – EW is much much more than this). Mag.

Yes that is true, I am a user of the software product and an avid learner of EW. I beleive it takes years to be a practitioner.The software has served me well since discovering it 12 months ago. I didn't think it would cause such a response by displaying a chart with my thoughts on where gold was heading. Hence name of thread.

The charts on LHG and OXR does raise a point of discussion and how other people interperate them. Thanks for your veiws.

 

[CanOz]

Yes that is true, I am a user of the software product and an avid learner of EW. I beleive it takes years to be a practitioner.The software has served me well since discovering it 12 months ago. I didn't think it would cause such a response by displaying a chart with my thoughts on where gold was heading. Hence name of thread.

After reading Wave's and Mag's post i think i see where your coming from now. Interesting to see this perspective on gold.

Cheers,

 

[Goldbug]

After reading Wave's and Mag's post i think i see where your coming from now. Interesting to see this perspective on gold.

Cheers,

Just a point of observation.

By using the software with the basic rules, the Monthly (major) Chart shows that we are in a wave (3) which: Rule 2 states, wave (3) is never the shortest wave. Also Rule 3 states, wave (4) never enters the price territory of wave (1). This would mean that before we are in a major bear market the price of gold would have to accelerate down to the point of 328.
Wave (3) actually commenced as soon as the price went past (1) 328.
If gold bounces back over 732 without to much long-term corrections, then gold will still be in a major wave(3) regardless of what the Daily (minor) chart reads.
The projections down to wave (4) and back up to wave (5) are just that, projections, that the software correlates towards the whole wave principle. I’m actually observing the over all major gold trend that is possibly formulating towards what I base my decisions on.

Now observe the great “79” crash. History is always a good learning cue. The Gold RSI reading is 92. Then it went into a corrective stage, ABC. I treat the RSI indicator as the thermometer. The ASX back in “87” also hit 92. How many years did it take to recovery?
In May, gold hit 84 RSI, then corrected. In my opinion, that’s why we need corrections so it doesn’t get that high. Who wants another crash?

Thats why I think gold is still long term bullish.

 

[wavepicker]

Just a point of observation.

Also Rule 3 states, wave (4) never enters the price territory of wave (1). This would mean that before we are in a major bear market the price of gold would have to accelerate down to the point of 328.

Thats why I think gold is still long term bullish.

Agreed Goldbug about Gold being in a secular bull. But I still think it will be caught in a sideways range/downward biased correction for while.

Incindentally, whilst it's true wave 4 cannot overlap with a 1st wave in most markets there are exceptions to this rule and they important ones:

-wave 4 can overlap wave 1 in an "leading diagonal triangle" which is a rare pattern but can sometimes occur as a wave 1 in an impulse and wave A of an ABC correction. When this pattern does occur in a wave 1, the ensuing correction is sharp and deep and usually finds support at the span of the previous wave 2 of one less degree within that leading diagonal triangle. The subdivsions of a leading diagonal triangle are 5 wave impulses.

- wave 4 can also overlap wave 1 in an Ending Diagonal pattern. These subdivide into 3 wave structures(as opposed to the 5 waves of a leading diagonal triangle). Ending diagonals usually occur in 5th waves where the previous wave 3 moved to far and too fast OR as C waves in an ABC correction. When an Ending Diagonal ends this implies a sharp reversal in the opposite direction to come. Some recent examples are: SP500 just prior the last start of the last correction, the DJIA, EURJPY, stocks: JBM, NAB,ORI,PBL and ZFX just to name a few but there heaps more.

It should be noted that most often, that wave 3's in commodities are NOT the longest wave. In fact wave 5's 90% of the time in commodities are longest, and this is evident by the long "blowoff" type moves which climax a trend either up or dowm. Why?? Especially in the case of Gold, because the buying is fear based and not hope based. Fear acts faster than greed and hope. That is why when you get big selloffs in the stocks they move down with higher momentum compared to rising.

Cheers

 

[Goldbug]

Agreed Goldbug about Gold being in a secular bull. But I still think it will be caught in a sideways range/downward biased correction for while.

I also agree with you wavepicker, the fund boys are getting too agressive pushing the count past the top of impulse wave(3) in which if not corrected within a week or so, we could be in a sideways/downward ABC corrective waves in the Daily (minor) trend for some time. Hope I'm wrong but the fundamentals don't look strong at the moment.

Thanks for the added learning.

Cheers

 

[Magdoran]

Yes that is true, I am a user of the software product and an avid learner of EW. I beleive it takes years to be a practitioner.The software has served me well since discovering it 12 months ago. I didn't think it would cause such a response by displaying a chart with my thoughts on where gold was heading. Hence name of thread.

The charts on LHG and OXR does raise a point of discussion and how other people interperate them. Thanks for your veiws.

Hello Goldbug,


Welcome to ASF by the way, and I’m sure you’ll find plenty of like minds (and some not so like) here, and considerable knowledge to draw from. You may find it worthwhile to go way back to earlier posts in threads like this to see some of the discussions that have gone in the past, and get a feel for some of the ongoing polemics - you may find some inspiration here.

The response to your charts was caused by confusion about the wave count since quite a few of the ASF community are EW users, and the software’s selected counts conflicted with the dominant schools orthodoxy on EW counts. Of course this thread is about individual views on Gold, but the interest was in your rationale, hence the responses.

Just out of interest, what is the content of the EW course connected with Profitsource - did you do this? If so, what did they cover? Did they go into the history at all? Do they mention Prechter/Frost these days (or Robert Fisher, or Robert Miner for that matter)? Do they cover ending diagonals, nesting patterns, various flats, extensions, rules of alternation, etc?

Regarding Profitsource, does it allow custom wave numbering these days, or is it all automated? I know you can access pre-scanned “type 1/2 buy/sell” “set ups”. Do you use these? How configurable is the “range projector” on the current version of Profitsource? Can you impose a manual count, and adjust the Fibonacci retracements/extensions?

Do you do your own EW independent of the software, and if so, which school do you tend to draw from (examples are Prechter/Frost, Miner, Fisher, there are whole schools of Fibb players out there too…)?

Sorry to barrage you with so many questions, but it’d be interesting to know what Hubb is up to, and also get a feeling where your technical analysis rationale stems from. Look forward to seeing more posts from you in the future.


Regards


Magdoran
P.S. In the last posts “P.S.” I was trying to give you the heads up so you know what to expect. Mag

 

[BlueDaze]

Gold Bottom At $490 In 2008?

From a technical stand point my target is approximately $490 which is 50% of the entire range from the low of $250 to the high of $730.

This will be a suckers rally and fully retraced. After that rally, volatility and the rate of change of price will slow for the remaider of wave C. once again I think that level will be close to $490, but could go as low as $430 as stated before. All the same, given the whole bull campaign took 6 years, the ensuing bear campaign will not be over soon. My guess it will take a good 2 years, before finishing, and then the secular bull resuming.

Cylces are dimensionless. This means that they do not have to line up exactly with a major low in prices. As stated before, the expected low in Oct 2009 may or may not coincide with a lower low of Wave A $542.

It may just as easily coincide with a higher low after gold bottoms in the current correction. This is why it's important to have other tools as well at our disposal help us making our trading decisions.

If we are lucky enough to get a lower low that lines up with the bottom of the 8.5yr cycle in 2009, then this maybe a point from which the current secular bull market in gold continues.

Still don't think this correction is quite over, with more sideways/downward bias till the 8.5 year cycle bottoms in 2008. Last April when this peaked it was evident that the this market will struggle for 1-2 years until that cycle bottomed.

Hi wavepicker, was hoping you would re-surface. Do you still maintain your downside target for gold at $490? And when is the projected bottom in 2008? Is it in early, mid or late 2008?

You had also stated that a gold rally above $576 would invalidate your EW wave-count. Gold did hit above the $585 mark, so does your EW view still stand? If yes, why?

 

[Dr Doom]

Here's another angle for you EW types - I figure gold is a currency of last resort, so with the yen carry trade coming under pressure (but still has a way to go before it looks like doing damage?), how does a $US/Yen chart look?. As the yen is shaping up to be a currency competitor against gold there could be some more short term weakness in gold until it is realized that Japans economy is only just coming out of 'basket case' status & has yet to prove itself if this current correction takes hold. Cash & daytrades now (still watching LHG though )

 

[wavepicker]

Re: Gold Bottom At $490 In 2008?

Hi wavepicker, was hoping you would re-surface. Do you still maintain your downside target for gold at $490? And when is the projected bottom in 2008? Is it in early, mid or late 2008?

You had also stated that a gold rally above $576 would invalidate your EW wave-count. Gold did hit above the $585 mark, so does your EW view still stand? If yes, why?

Hello Buedaze,


Because the $576.50 level was breached I have had to change the wavecount slightly(Will post my thinking at a later time). Nevertheless the altrenate wave count still points for a continuation of the sideways market for the near future. We had 3 waves down followed by another 3 waves up, this in itself says the market will most likely remain in a range. Not sure about the $490 downside target ATM. Will be a better idea as more market time elapses.

The 8.5 year cycle bottoms next year or 2009. But I need to do some more cycles work to find out roughly when. It must be noted though that a cycle low does not have to coincide with a price low.

Cheers

 

[Bush Trader]

Hi All

Has anyone considered that the implications that the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade could have on the mid term Gold Price? If these “Hedge Funds” are forced to sell gold positions to cover margin calls, won’t the whole job go pear shaped? It is my understanding that gold has been purchased by these chaps to cover the currency downside, is this correct? If it is the case then gold might no longer be a safe haven, or have I got it all wrong?

Your thoughts are appreciated in advance.

Cheers

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Hi All

Has anyone considered that the implications that the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade could have on the mid term Gold Price? If these “Hedge Funds” are forced to sell gold positions to cover margin calls, won’t the whole job go pear shaped? It is my understanding that gold has been purchased by these chaps to cover the currency downside, is this correct? If it is the case then gold might no longer be a safe haven, or have I got it all wrong?

Your thoughts are appreciated in advance.

Cheers

Bush Trader,
Dr Doom asked the very same question above. If the carry trade unwinds then that could imply that US dollars would have to be sold, which is good for gold. Consider also that the next interest rate for the US is most likely down, which is also good for gold. Not too sure if would be good for Japanese investors though, who may sell gold, but should be offset by the rest of the world demand. Does that make sense??

 

[Bush Trader]

Bush Trader,
Dr Doom asked the very same question above. If the carry trade unwinds then that could imply that US dollars would have to be sold, which is good for gold. Consider also that the next interest rate for the US is most likely down, which is also good for gold. Not too sure if would be good for Japanese investors though, who may sell gold, but should be offset by the rest of the world demand. Does that make sense??

Uncle Festivus: Thanks for your response, it does make sense.

Cheers

 

[BlueDaze]

Gold - Another Corrective Phase

There is a March 5 article by Bob Hoye that caution of a minor low in gold price after March 9, and continued pressure on gold prices for a total of 6-8 weeks (Apr 9 - Apr 23)

http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Bob+Hoye