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Gold Price - Where is it heading?
- Thread starter guycharles
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chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
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You might find that the chinese might start buying gold rather than putting it into the stock market...rico01 said:A collapse in the chinese market
Will they turn around now and buy gold as a safehaven?
I,d like it too anyway!!!
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Jadefox said:
Jadefox, it just seems very odd. There was the initial sell-off along with equities etc, then a solid reversal back above where it started the session then bang, straight down at the start of NY Access market. I'm not a pro trader or anything so I can't give a plausible explanation for it, but it maybe gives credence to the conspiracy theory that the market is not being allowed to form it's own level due to manipulation. What you can bank on though is that after any of these 're-tracements' down, there is a sure & steady re-action back up. I've gone long again today.
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MARKET TALK: Gold May Snap Back, Target $715 Area -Analyst
Feb 28, 2007 - 10:39:44 HKT
Dow Jones Newswires
Big gold price drop not gold-specific but simply due to fact "everything was sold down" yesterday, says John Mesrobian, president of Constantinople Advisors; thinks recovery "could come quickly" and projects gold will rise to $715-$730/oz over next 30 days.
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Naif said:
Dr Doom , I totaly agree with the market talk that the gold will rise to 715 level..
as i have said in my previous replies that the gold should go to 700-725 level and then fall below 690 .. and then will rise again , and this fridays when the new data will come out for the COT , i expect that the large speculators will decrease their long positions..
they always say don`t follow the cot data because it doesn`t give the truth about the movement of the price, and from my experince the cot is 100% true, we should just learn how to analyze it correctly and with technical analysis you will be able to pick the best price to buy or sell..
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This may be of interest!
Gold Bugs Unconcerned
Source: FN Arena News - February 28 2007
By Greg Peel
When asked on Monday what he thought would happen to gold if the US equity market broke down, veteran gold trader and CEO of the Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation, Jim Sinclair, suggested the sellers would come in.
“Quite quickly thereafter and most certainly when the US dollar also gets hit gold will steady” Sinclair suggested, before adding that the next move would be to the heavens.
Gold pundit Peter Grandich, of The Grandich Letter, noted that gold had been “quite overbought” on Comex (futures exchange) by investment funds. It was no surprise therefore that gold was hit hard, but the bounce off the US$660/oz low was a “valiant comeback”.
Grandich welcomes such corrections, and would not yet be surprised if US$650/oz was seen again. But ultimately Grandich sees the gold price in four figures. He also points out that market carnage such as was experienced last night used to spark a flight into US dollars, but this was not the case in any magnitude. The US dollar is “terminally ill”, says Grandich.
There is no doubt that almost every analyst in Australia is bullish gold, if not quite so stridently as our gold bugs above. We have experienced such shake-outs of wobbly longs before, and there is nothing to suggest views will change overnight.
A less hyperbolic Neal R. Ryan, of US coin dealer Blanchard & Co, had been forecasting a few weeks ago “the end of easy money” available from the yen carry trade. This has now taken its toll on the Chinese stock market. Ryan cites a number of reasons why this is good for precious metals.
Firstly, he believes that a significant correction in US equities will put pressure on Fed chairman Bernanke to follow up on his recent comments that inflation is under control, and cut rates. Ryan suggests that Bernanke, and US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, “don't want to be at the helm of the economy while it spirals down the tube”. A rate cut would be a big positive for precious metals.
Secondly, the euro has become very popular and the yen is finally beginning to strengthen. Moreover, the Chinese may yet raise rates as part of the government’s economy-slowing package. This would see more weakness in the US dollar. “The dollar is cracking”, says Ryan.
Thirdly, investors will simply shift into precious metals to get away from volatile markets elsewhere, Ryan suggests.
It is notable that gold didn’t really tank last night until after the official close, when EFT custodians dumped the physical required to cover investor selling in the listed products. They would have sold into a thinner market. It is also notable that recent reports of Chinese retail buying over the New Year period were adding impetus to the gold price. A stock market collapse – if you can call it that – may well put at least a temporary halt on such enthusiasm. Ryan also notes, however, that the strongest season for precious metal investing is as yet a month away.
âœLoad up”, say Ryan.
Gold Bugs Unconcerned
Source: FN Arena News - February 28 2007
By Greg Peel
When asked on Monday what he thought would happen to gold if the US equity market broke down, veteran gold trader and CEO of the Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation, Jim Sinclair, suggested the sellers would come in.
“Quite quickly thereafter and most certainly when the US dollar also gets hit gold will steady” Sinclair suggested, before adding that the next move would be to the heavens.
Gold pundit Peter Grandich, of The Grandich Letter, noted that gold had been “quite overbought” on Comex (futures exchange) by investment funds. It was no surprise therefore that gold was hit hard, but the bounce off the US$660/oz low was a “valiant comeback”.
Grandich welcomes such corrections, and would not yet be surprised if US$650/oz was seen again. But ultimately Grandich sees the gold price in four figures. He also points out that market carnage such as was experienced last night used to spark a flight into US dollars, but this was not the case in any magnitude. The US dollar is “terminally ill”, says Grandich.
There is no doubt that almost every analyst in Australia is bullish gold, if not quite so stridently as our gold bugs above. We have experienced such shake-outs of wobbly longs before, and there is nothing to suggest views will change overnight.
A less hyperbolic Neal R. Ryan, of US coin dealer Blanchard & Co, had been forecasting a few weeks ago “the end of easy money” available from the yen carry trade. This has now taken its toll on the Chinese stock market. Ryan cites a number of reasons why this is good for precious metals.
Firstly, he believes that a significant correction in US equities will put pressure on Fed chairman Bernanke to follow up on his recent comments that inflation is under control, and cut rates. Ryan suggests that Bernanke, and US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, “don't want to be at the helm of the economy while it spirals down the tube”. A rate cut would be a big positive for precious metals.
Secondly, the euro has become very popular and the yen is finally beginning to strengthen. Moreover, the Chinese may yet raise rates as part of the government’s economy-slowing package. This would see more weakness in the US dollar. “The dollar is cracking”, says Ryan.
Thirdly, investors will simply shift into precious metals to get away from volatile markets elsewhere, Ryan suggests.
It is notable that gold didn’t really tank last night until after the official close, when EFT custodians dumped the physical required to cover investor selling in the listed products. They would have sold into a thinner market. It is also notable that recent reports of Chinese retail buying over the New Year period were adding impetus to the gold price. A stock market collapse – if you can call it that – may well put at least a temporary halt on such enthusiasm. Ryan also notes, however, that the strongest season for precious metal investing is as yet a month away.
âœLoad up”, say Ryan.
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Nice post Bushy. Explains a few things.
This is what I predicted here over the last few weeks, waiting for the general correction and dragging gold stocks with it. See how gold stocks were sold off yesterday and the gold price is off probably $15, hardly a crash. Price swings of $20 a session will become commonplace from now on.
This is eerily close to what happened in 1929, in that the initial stages of the general market correction dragged gold down with it but eventually rebounded strongly. The big problem will be how much (short term) damage will be done by those who are exposed to other intruments as well as gold, & need to liquidate profitable (gold) positions in order to pay margin calls etc
When all is said & done, gold will be the store of wealth of choice when the irresponsibly administered fiat money experiment turns sour.
Another thing to ponder - the total market cap of all the gold stocks combined is equal to probably 2 or 3 of the DOW component companies, so if suddenly everyone wants out and a flight to safety ensues, a gold price of $700 will seem like a bargain.
History won't be kind to Greenspan, but he can always lay the blaim on the incumbent at the time, helicopter Ben.
This is what I predicted here over the last few weeks, waiting for the general correction and dragging gold stocks with it. See how gold stocks were sold off yesterday and the gold price is off probably $15, hardly a crash. Price swings of $20 a session will become commonplace from now on.
This is eerily close to what happened in 1929, in that the initial stages of the general market correction dragged gold down with it but eventually rebounded strongly. The big problem will be how much (short term) damage will be done by those who are exposed to other intruments as well as gold, & need to liquidate profitable (gold) positions in order to pay margin calls etc
When all is said & done, gold will be the store of wealth of choice when the irresponsibly administered fiat money experiment turns sour.
Another thing to ponder - the total market cap of all the gold stocks combined is equal to probably 2 or 3 of the DOW component companies, so if suddenly everyone wants out and a flight to safety ensues, a gold price of $700 will seem like a bargain.
History won't be kind to Greenspan, but he can always lay the blaim on the incumbent at the time, helicopter Ben.
hi jadefox..
you have to identify resistance and support levels viatechnical analysis, and watch the cot data, cot data is options and future contracts and the data of this week when it come out and the large speculators decrease their long positions it doesn`t mean that next week the gold will but it will be affected later..
you have to identify resistance and support levels viatechnical analysis, and watch the cot data, cot data is options and future contracts and the data of this week when it come out and the large speculators decrease their long positions it doesn`t mean that next week the gold will but it will be affected later..
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Dr Doom said:
Not a fan of Benny Boy I take it
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Hi YT,
Well I think he does his best, knowing he is backed by an unlimited dollar making machine, which will be good for gold and gold companies.
The market corrected over 400 points and this is his reply -
""If the housing sector begins to stabilize and if some of the inventory corrections that are still going on in manufacturing begin to be completed there's a reasonable possibility that we'll see strengthening of the economy sometime during the middle of the year," he said."
These Fed people always speak in roundabout ways, so you can interpret their remarks any way you like, but he's clearly saying to me 'if the housing downturn keeps going then we're in for a recession'.
At least Greenspan has publicly stated what many are privatly thinking, that a recession is a real possibility. Forewarned is forearmed.
DD
Well I think he does his best, knowing he is backed by an unlimited dollar making machine, which will be good for gold and gold companies.
The market corrected over 400 points and this is his reply -
""If the housing sector begins to stabilize and if some of the inventory corrections that are still going on in manufacturing begin to be completed there's a reasonable possibility that we'll see strengthening of the economy sometime during the middle of the year," he said."
These Fed people always speak in roundabout ways, so you can interpret their remarks any way you like, but he's clearly saying to me 'if the housing downturn keeps going then we're in for a recession'.
At least Greenspan has publicly stated what many are privatly thinking, that a recession is a real possibility. Forewarned is forearmed.
DD
Sean K
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Just copy the URL address and paste it in.petervan said:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Gerbino/feb282007.html
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Touche.
<Quote>
"If the mainland Chinese are bidding stocks to 45 times earnings, it is an indication of how high they will eventually bid up gold mining companies in New York and Toronto when exchange controls are lifted. As Doug Casey likes to say; “it will be like Hoover Dam going through a garden hose.”
<Quote>
"If the mainland Chinese are bidding stocks to 45 times earnings, it is an indication of how high they will eventually bid up gold mining companies in New York and Toronto when exchange controls are lifted. As Doug Casey likes to say; “it will be like Hoover Dam going through a garden hose.”
Sean K
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Gold holding well at the moment. Respected 660 support which is nice. Will be interesting to see NY open. Fat Profits are claiming $1000 oz this year. While I would like to see that, general market correction will also bring goldies down I feel.
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Sean K
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Still respecting 660 support. It's not potentially going down until that is clearly broken.
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