Gold Price - Where is it heading?

kennas said:

Still respecting 660 support. It's not potentially going down until that is clearly broken.

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Hi Kennas,

With all the doom and gloom going around I don't think that gold will simply fall over. Its just having a minor correction before going on to better things. Its amazing how fickle some traders are, especially the newbies. Some are just wanting to get out at any price. The same newbies last week were probably betting on a continued strong run. Patience is needed here and its best to leave the emotion out of it.
DYOR

The most interesting thing with ASX:GOLD is the lack of sellers.

Yes... there is a lot of fear out there but i'm still long on gold. Patience is the best bet at this correctional time. As i write it has pulled back over the 660 mark. We'll see what sort of action happens over night.

Good luck to all gold investers......Stay strong

Well this is the Chinese golden year of the pig, so gold is perfect for me now

(and I really am a pig too, although that's coincidental and had nothing to do with the selection of this screen name).

GP

It looks bullish to me....any thoughts!

Kimosabi said:

The most interesting thing with ASX:GOLD is the lack of sellers.

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Theres always been a lack of sellers

Goldbug said:

It looks bullish to me....any thoughts!

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Your wave 2, goes below the start of wave 1?

Gold taking it a little....

Can anyone explain this Intraday dip in Gold today. A $9 dollar (10%) drop appears to be pretty significant

Marc Faber (Dr Doom) said this would happen when the indices tank and implied buying with ears pinned back at around 600-610.

Kimosabi I wouldn't take any notice of an intraday chart of GOLD, there is very little turnover.

It's not a coincidence I have chosen my username as such. Dr Faber's prediction so far is spot on, see here

Also, apparently the Plunge Protection Team is now known as the Presidents Working Party. Let's see if they can pull some rabbits out of their collective, well financed hats?.


As for gold, here is one explanation - liquidity crisis in other markets -

~~~~~~~~~~~~~
By Chris Laird
March 02, 2007


www.prudentsquirrel.com



This week, gold sold off along with the general financial markets. The reason is that funds/investors had been playing the Yen carry trade for a long time, and the Yen strengthened during the Chinese stock crash. Then, funds/etc, having to cover margins sold their most liquid and profitable positions to cover margins. That is hitting gold, even as markets continue down.

So, the story is that the Yen carry is unwinding, that is causing market liquidations, that is causing gold liquidations now this week. Gold is way down, the US stock market barely stabilized, but is way down, Japan has not stabilized, down 250 or so.

What is happening is market – gold – market sell offs.

The whole thing is a leverage/liquidity issue. As leverage flees financial markets, the Yen strengthens because of the Yen carry, then as more is cleared, the Yen strengthens. Then of course markets sell off more – leading to more market sell offs and Yen strengthening. But this is not only about the Yen carry. Market leverage has built for 5 years to ridiculous levels. Next week or so, we will see hedge fund crises.

Derivatives are now a huge question as well, and with hedge funds and investment banks, there will be emerging gigantic losses. Look for Amaranth to be a toy scenario.

Gold is getting hit because it is a liquid asset to cover margins. This is not fundamentally a gold market sell off it is a liquidity sell off. This is anticipating further financial market sell offs next week. This is market-gold-market sell off this week. The second phase starts next week – the second market sell off phase.

But, the next shoe is due to drop next week – that is – if the US and Japanese PPT teams cannot stem the crisis. Make no bones about it, there is a critical market liquidity crisis right now in all world financial markets. They may or may not stem this.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Naif said:

hi dutchy

you can see the data of the cot from this website:
http://www.softwarenorth.com/trading/commitmentscurrent/
and then click on GC but it will give you the data only for futures but if you subscribe with this website (i think it cost 30 us dollar) you will be able to see the data for the futures and the options..

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Hi Naif,
Looks like the commercials were right again!

Also, Granditch analysis here

http://www.grandich.com/docs/alert_03-02-07.pdf

DD

Wrong... gold is very near a bottom>>> I do not subscribe to his site but on 321 gold >>> there is a person who give coments and has a paying subscription jeff kern... I have when he was free a few years ago. have the data he uses and nearly have his program work a few day ago his system had a run of 1 down then four up >> which has a 70% probability of marking a high with a correction of 10 to 15% lasting 1 or 2 weeks.
If you read his last article on that site, he updates once a month that a longer term index may come into play.
I went back into gold and silver about 7-10 trading days ago but I sold out at profit and losses and I am 100% cash.
I also have speadsheets on the DOW have daily data to 1895 and that is another reason why I am 100% cash
gold silver uraniun >> I drop nearly 10% the other day got part back.
But why hold when I know I can get 10-20% more shares of the same companies than I held.

Investing in gold > maybe you should invest in his site

CanOz,

Quote:
Your wave 2,goes below the start of wave 1?

In a bullish Elliot Wave movement, the impulsive wave starts at (1) and retracts down to (2). (2) will then advance to (3). (3) retracts to (4) and (4) advances to (5).
Three of the waves (numbers 1, 3 and 5) determine the overall price trend of the security. These three directional waves are separated from one another by two counter-trend interruptions, the waves numbered 2 and 4.
In a bear market the opposite will happen. (1) will advance to (2) and then retract down to (3) and so on.

Please note that the monthly chart is a major price trend movement not a correctional miner movement to what we witnessed last night.

Goldbug said:

CanOz,

Quote:
Your wave 2,goes below the start of wave 1?

In a bullish Elliot Wave movement, the impulsive wave starts at (1) and retracts down to (2). (2) will then advance to (3). (3) retracts to (4) and (4) advances to (5).
Three of the waves (numbers 1, 3 and 5) determine the overall price trend of the security. These three directional waves are separated from one another by two counter-trend interruptions, the waves numbered 2 and 4.
In a bear market the opposite will happen. (1) will advance to (2) and then retract down to (3) and so on.

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Hmmm, I'm confused.

I didn't think you started a wave with a number or a letter. I thought the reference was where the wave ended.

kennas said:

Hmmm, I'm confused.

I didn't think you started a wave with a number or a letter. I thought the reference was where the wave ended.

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The numbers are used as a symbol of reference to determine what direction or trend the wave is heading.

and bearish trend would look like this.
Notice the number directions.
I do need to mention though, EW formulas are based on projections in determining only the trend not the actual price the security will change direction at.

Goldbug said:

and bearish trend would look like this.
Notice the number directions.
I do need to mention though, EW formulas are based on projections in determining only the trend not the actual price the security will change direction at.

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Are you putting those numbers in Goldbug, or is it from another practicioner? I'm fairly new to EW, but I am struggling to see why you have put your waves where they are. Looks pretty random to me.

The biggest problem I see here with the EW counts is trying to shoehorn an impulsive count on a corrective pattern.

Impulses are quite uncommon in long term commodity charts, you are better off looking to corrective patterns... unless an impulse hit you in the face.

There are of course plenty of medium term impulses in the commods at the moment.

Just a comment

Goldbug said:

and bearish trend would look like this.
Notice the number directions.
I do need to mention though, EW formulas are based on projections in determining only the trend not the actual price the security will change direction at.

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What teachings are you following Gold Bug ?

I have never seen counts like yours before, even if you aren't using Fib retracements.

Not saying they are wrong, just alien to me.