Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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greggles said:
Joules, what sort of impact do you think that will have on the gold price?
Click to expand...

the impact is already in mode ......general decline with most commods in a very large winter bear trend with (current) resurgences until the cycle is complete and we start a new spring .....we know from the number of miners who are ready to back-door refit like RDS PEL A1C
maybe another 10 years of gen decline ....doesnt mean individuals cannot make the most of the AUD

the peak in capital investment is never locked with gold
 
Gold is really struggling. It looks like it has broken down through the lower channel and is heading lower.

n4fHd3tK.png
 
Joules, what do you think? Is the channel still intact? Gold feels bearish but I want to be optimistic.

7y3RU9vo.png
 
greggles said:
Joules, what do you think? Is the channel still intact? Gold feels bearish but I want to be optimistic.

View attachment 87678
Click to expand...

i think the channels only useful to denote the short term swings within the large congestion zone so you need smaller contexts to build your ideas about where price is likely to go....if youre using channels for entries and exits then stick to them
i am currently short silver looking for a break of the tri as at least that has an anecdotal boundary and most of the upside swings have been hooks but PM's are a mess waiting for a catalyst to get upwards and without that i suggest we need to go lower to find the level bids will overrun sellers
 
Gold in $US is still in an 18 month uptrend. If the latst year and a half is anything to go by, we should be ready for the next leg up.

eTU5F88J.png
 
I was doing some scanning on US stocks and noticed that a few silver miners were appearing. Wondered why. XAGUSD broke out 5-6 days ago. Missed that completely.
 
AUD down in the last 24 hours, but gold in AUD up $35 in the same period. ASX-listed gold miners should have a good day today.

RDlCR31q.png
 
See your angle CanOz, however politics guide the main thrust of my investment strategies.

Not hellbent yet of corse but interesting times.
 
FFADE237-D729-4B9D-9208-0645787D33C4.jpeg 21D0F812-CD0A-49B5-A484-093E432817A4.jpeg For all you gold bugs and China haters...from Kevin Muir.

At the risk of alienating all my readers who view gold as a barbarous relic, I am chancing one more post to expand on my ideas regarding the correlation between gold and the Chinese currency.

Although some readers got a chuckle out of my article Gold: Come’on - Admit it - You want to own it, there was also a bunch of pushback on the idea that the Chinese were pegging the price of gold in CNY.

“Why would they do that?”

“To what end?”

And I guess I purposely left out the details, instead I choose to focus on the correlations and leave it to readers to draw their own conclusions.

And before I give you my theories as to the reasons behind the relationship, let’s have a look at how the correlation has fared since I wrote about it last.


Still trading on top of one another. In fact, it’s almost tick for tick.

Speaking of tick for tick, the great twitter account of @TickByTick_Team created a terrific chart that demonstrated the collapse in the volatility of gold priced in CNY. I have recreated using the 90-day historical volatility, but it doesn’t matter which time frame you use - the end result is that gold priced in CNY has become a lot less volatile.


I am sympathetic to the idea that China would never bother to peg the price of gold. Pegging implies that you would be willing to both buy and sell it to keep it at a certain level. I don’t believe that China has any interest in selling even the tiniest little bit of their gold reserves to keep it at a certain price.

But I do believe the Chinese are managing the price of gold priced in CNY. They have in essence provided a floor at which they are willing to accumulate gold. They don’t bother selling it when it rises above that level, but when the gold price descends into their buy zone, they are there with stacks of blues.

So why is the price of gold going down recently? Well, if we assume that China is one of the biggest buyers of gold, when their currency depreciates, their bid for gold priced in US dollars falls.

The price of gold has not been pegged in CNY, it is merely being bought in that currency. The Chinese have fundamentally changed the way they look at gold. Instead of pricing it in US dollars, they are pricing it in CNY. And they are bid. For size.

Kevin Muir

the MacroTourist
 
I had $1181 pegged as a potential Low a couple of months back …. Its gone with minimal resistance.

Fast move to $1125 could set up a nice Rubber Band Trade.

Current move is not treating my Gold Stocks kindly however:rolleyes:

Old Chart from 11 July …. then Today's

Gold 11July2018.jpg GOLD under 1181.jpg
 

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