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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Geez i thought i was on Zerohedge there for a moment . and none of that anti chinese rhetoric has any influence on gold but anyway ... US does same thing and its defending its freedon while they kick sand in everyones face and china is taking over the world .... Go figure
 
I shorted 8 Ausi Gold stocks at the close of trade the day Trump got in. That was even before the US and European markets had opened with that news. Gold had peaked, if you were paying attention.
I got out of my gold shorts at about 30% profit a piece.
Now I am up on 3 by 8% playing that vague theme, the fears that made gold spike on that day are now far more valid than the panic of that day. We just need confirmation when he opens his mouth as president. But the market is already adjusting for that risk so I am in early with a buffer already in place.
Has some relevance to gold for me.
 
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I am adding the Gold quarterly chart, not that there is much to see as it continues to slide down. However, over the next month or two it may rally upward if the US stockmarket goes into correction mode, which is highly likely. I can't see it rising above the right-angle top of the falling wedge but short term players may make a dollar or two, perhaps!

 
Fed makes even more hawkish statements and gold rallies.
Lets see what happens when the grown ups come back from their holidays.
 
There has been a bit of a gold rally since I last posted and now it is nudging the all important $1200 support/resistance level. It will be interesting to see if it can close above $1200 and rally upward for a bit. My guess is no but I wouldn't be taking any bets on this one!
 
Wysiwyg said:
Quant? Do you use quantitative analysis or just like the name? I am keen to see your chart analysis. Thanks.
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Sorry i took a while to reply , i was waiting on the FOMC exhaustion which happened , 2016 put in a HH on yearly and i expected the HL and timing was perfect , technical and some fundamentals involved as well but reluctant to get into that considering how emotive people are with gold and on ASF in general
 
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Wysiwyg said: ↑
Quant? Do you use quantitative analysis or just like the name? I am keen to see your chart analysis. Thanks. ""

Oh and i definitely use Quantitative analysis but once again reluctant to get into discussions about that here especially after the baking the esteemed , well respected and factual Howard Bandy got . Cant stand the dick measuring ego **** and will avoid totally , bordering on trolls tbh , sad actually as this place could be so much more than it is but it is what it is , traders are such dicks generally , so many smart people's wisdom is missed ....
 
Quant said:
Oh and i definitely use Quantitative analysis but once again reluctant to get into discussions about that here especially after the baking the esteemed , well respected and factual Howard Bandy got
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Well I suppose I am a quantitative analyst of some sort by using formulae to technically analyse. Not complex calcs. though and as I have found the field is abstract.
 
Wysiwyg said:
Well I suppose I am a quantitative analyst of some sort by using formulae to technically analyse. Not complex calcs. though and as I have found the field is abstract.
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I use it Howard Bandy style , put lot of work into it . a reliable all market algo is very hard work , thats why not many make it . it is complex to a degree . it has to be to deal with different market conditions
 
Quant said:
I use it Howard Bandy style , put lot of work into it . a reliable all market algo is very hard work , thats why not many make it . it is complex to a degree . it has to be to deal with different market conditions
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Quant when you say "all market"? I assume you are talking about different phases of markets, volatile, trending high volume, go nowhere low vol, ranging etc? What time frame are you looking at?
 
Trembling Hand said:
Quant when you say "all market"? I assume you are talking about different phases of markets, volatile, trending high volume, go nowhere low vol, ranging etc? What time frame are you looking at?
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Yes i filter volatility , trend , momentum . All that type of thing , stops are dynamic adjusting to volatility . I use a 2 bar reversal filter to assist entry and i have developed a very neat bull/bear count to keep me in the trade till momentum/move is over . Entries are easy and exits were always my weakness previously .

I predominantly trade 30m TF as i seek to trade the swings intraday and take a large bite out of the range . Have quite a few rules to deal with breakouts and swings on higher TFs (daily) , i do monitor the next time frame up so i dont trip over dynamics of bigger picture
 
The market is getting excited about the new run-up in gold again and many start to bet 'the start of the new bull market. But based on my Cycle analysis, my view is very different from them.

Yes, on short term time frame, Gold has reversed up and that is why we have bought Gold and Silver (long) recently and we have just taken the profits as well. It is still possible to see the higher prices (1250) after a few days of consolidation.

Remember! Short term trade is very different from long term investment. For long term investment, we must buy in slowly based on the major turning point.

The following short term charts (expecting higher prices in gold and Silver) were sent to the members more than a week ago - we went Long (bought gold) on the 6th Jan.






The medium term outlook remains bearish. See Charts below







credit : johnyii.com
 
There isn't much of a fundamental reason for a gold rally right now in my opinion. Any opposing views?
 
Well, it is exactly 1 year since I made those comments. Lets look at what $10,000 has turned into.

Todays gold price is $1,600 AUD. Up 2.5% for the 12 Months. Your 10K would have turned into $10,250

The XAO right now is at 5709. Up 15% for the 12 Months. Plus, at a minimum I earned 5% in distributions for holding my ETF's. That's a 20% return for the year. My 10K has turned into $12,000.

This year the Gold buffs start with $10,250 and I start with $12,000. We see what happens in the next 12 Months. I'm staying with my stocks for sure.
 
Gold continues to show strength and finally pushing through the critical resistance 1222 to 1235.50 today.

Though we are still bearish on medium term but on short term, we are bullish and that is why we are buying and holding Long positions. Currently, momentum is building up and money flow is still positive. We see a possible upside to 1250 - 1279 and We will continue to monitor as we go along.

In term of timing, a short term top could possibly be seen in March

Gold Weekly chart - showing more momentum is building up

 
Reactions: SFA
I even came back today to have a second look, there's so many little things you see the next time around, today I'm LOL'ing over "rectangles are pretty"
 
ThingyMajiggy said:
I even came back today to have a second look, there's so many little things you see the next time around, today I'm LOL'ing over "rectangles are pretty"
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That second coming of jesus formation I often see setting up but alas it always fails without any follow through.
 
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