Damn it Joules ... There are a lot of Gold Bears in the woods at present and if you are one of them I am genuinely concerned
..... More input from you please Sir as I don't wish to turn into Goldilocks
the ideal level i was/am expecting a reverse swing or at least an attempt to feign a reverse of "some" magnitude (as my technique has a requisit of ratios/symmetry I have to wait to see a low established and the construct of that)
is in the 1139 -1116 zone of the front month cfd (my measures say 1116's is a 'better' fit)
the 78.6% retrace of the whole upmove todate is also in the 1116's zone (metals adhere to .786's and .886's recurrently than say the usual .618's %'s etc) .....traders should be careful of using end-point to end-point measures like lucas/gann/fibonacci simply because they do not and cannot relate to anything other than two end points, so, in that regard they are merely random numbers ...the point of highlighting the .786% is that it is within a cluster of other ratios that are part of the larger construct (the bear trend)...woops, writing a book....
the structure thus far down hill has begun to essentially trend with all the usual abcxabc type lifts followed by GTFO levels where momo gets added and you know sellers are intentionally leaning....all the lifts dry up very quickly with rarely more than 6-7 points, the construct immediately becomes choppy and overlapping, so the bounce signals (with more downside to come) become clear very quickly...much of my trading consists of about 6 hours hey-hey sunshine followed by about 60 hours of choppy nuggets..sounds like a trend to me....
the one anecdote that is obviously clear, to people who can get out of the way of their own bias, is the extreme bullish sentiment at the swing high and obverse to that the extreme contracts of the commercials......so, yeah, the commercials probably need to close out more than they have.... participation is generally, in the current price range, low now, which to me adds to background of weaker longs not necessarily aggressive bears
so going back to the bullish extreme sentiment, it needs to be clear that after 5 years of bear market the rampant desire to own PM's is completely at odds with the % of the weekly decline(s) and the relatively minute amount of time taken in the current bounce....it just doesnt fit the picture of a new bull phase and yet fits the picture perfectly of a bounce that small traders (and trend following managers) want desperately to be an uptrend
the $DX is on a rip yer face off uptrend.....so, there's that......
my guess is we've almost completed A (up) and B (down) with C (up) to come ......but first we need to get a little palpable fear into the print......the kind of fear that makes the anti gold nuts come out confidence and wave the toldya-so flag around
i placed the symmetry boxes on the previous chart to show a little idea that price and time are playing out as they usually do, that the first interruption (the 2007-2009 bear for equities) is matched in the opposite direction currently.....these things of themselves are merely roadsigns and my experience is that when they unfurl in the same direction (price direction) they tend to have an expectancy of repetition, these are relative to size and of course the context needs to be taken into account, that means what type of moves (progressive or pro-regressive) .......i'm trying to avoid writing a small novel here, suffice to say; we know bear markets are excruciatingly long for bulls..... these bounces should carry a lot of mistrust and they don't !!
stepping much further back in the view, the weekly overhead downtrend line has printed neatly as the roof, so, from that perspective it is not surprising that the bounce has needed to take a big step back wards to regain strength to get thru that overhead and as can be clearly shown in this chart next chart
(hat tip @rvm for the find) the tap on the roof saw a big GTFO series of trades, the deep pockets getting out while the managers and small species were filling their boots, again, with current participation so quiet it is hard to see gold/silver heading north until we get to the level where every donkey is calling for much much lower levels
when all retailers start using emotive logic to describe outlandish lower numbers and it becomes normal type then we can expect that to play into the bid side
....i run out of texaco chances at 1116's for deep pocket bids to come play, even tho ratios are a guide and offer risk levels theyre secondary to the auction, the auction just agrees more of the same the levels can be immediately disregarded and with them taken out a re-profiling of the likely action to come
...much like vpoc's n waps etc, ratios are subjective requiring understanding of the relative size and context
where were we....oh yeah....predicting......hmmmm....
"small species" is correct, chortle ......