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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Brexit is on.

Aussie gold up 10% today.

BBC economists warning that people may not be able to withdraw cash from thier banks.
 
Goldy said:
I guess it's always better to have your money in cash..
Click to expand...

Never heard such crap in all my life. Nothing will change apart from fear...which will soon dissipate.
 
Hmm, GC has met its pattern target at 1356. We could test the Brexit high, which seems reasonable. After that, if we remain well bid then 1400 is the next target.
 
Porper said:
Never heard such crap in all my life. Nothing will change apart from fear...which will soon dissipate.
Click to expand...

Paper money is being printed out of thin air without productive backing. Check webpage of Austrian Economics.

Check the Weimer Republic's demise and Argentina. Many others hitting this wall now.

Money is losing value but its demise being hidden by crap figures. Just one example, US unemployment said to be 5% but not counted are those seeking work more than 12 months. Included as full time jobs are just a few hours part time. It is said a person holding 3 part time jobs are counted as 3 full time jobs. Real unemployment there is said to exceed 20% and they have 50 million on food stamps.

Real fear among banks and big players is driving the prescious metals stampede now and in my view it is just the beginning of the run. Well worth a bit of googling. But JMHO, we'll see.
 
explod said:
Real fear among banks and big players is driving the prescious metals stampede now and in my view it is just the beginning of the run. Well worth a bit of googling. But JMHO, we'll see.
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Oh crap Explod, every-time gold has a run you come out with this, i could almost set my watch to it...I tend to think gold on the bid does = one of three things:

1.) anticipation of a weak dollar, the DX usually correlates, Bonds correlate
2.) fear, the safety trade, Bonds correlate, equities tank, Vix rises
3.) Inflation from dovish monetary policy - Bonds correlate, equities correlate, vix drops

Which is it this time Explod?
 

Almost no yield in bonds, no interest for money in the bank. Big companies including banks have fallen big numbers to the detriment of super funds. Deutcher in strife last week and on the edge, and many being propped by government stimulus (money printing) one of the majors when it cracks will set off a domino tumble soon IMHO.

Physical in the hand for this kid. Anyway I realise most of you are much wiser than I. This is just my innocent 10cents
 
Further to the above discussion the following quote of Egon von Greyerz overnight on King World News expands my point of view:-

 
Yup, by the look of the GC price, all hopes for more QE have evaporated...risk off again
 
Gold looking a tad overdone me thinking

NCM 26.05
NST 5.64
EVN 2.90
SBM 3.605
RRL 3.84

Time to get shorty
 
What is wrong with profiting that way? Making more than what it was bought for. I suppose the next we hear is a GST on bullion sales. That would stop the business in its tracks.
 
Wysiwyg said:
What is wrong with profiting that way?
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I do believe the illegal part is that the individuals do not pay back the GST and disappear keeping the 10% gain instead of sending it back as part of the BAS?
and apologies for the typos/spelling errors in my above post
 

I know the gold bugs thrive on fear, but take a step back and look at the economy, its doing pretty good, there are plenty of businesses on the asx generating millions or billions of dollars in free cash flow each year, and paying a certain amount of this out to share holders, these companies are not only reinvesting to continue to grow their own businesses, but share holders get to spend or reinvest their dividends.

I think holding a baskets of good companies in this economy is going to perform better than your gold bars.

I mean the gold price has gone no where in five years, and not a single dividend paid or interest received.

Even if you held cash over that time, you would have been better off, at least you would have gotten a little interest. Mean while the ASX200 paid over 20% in dividends and is up about 50% in capital value.
 
explod said:
.

Money is losing value but its demise being hidden by crap figures..
Click to expand...

Well you can by about the same amount of gold with $1 today as you could buy 5 years with the same $1. So it hasn't lost that much value compared to gold. but if you had the dollar stored in ASX200, you would have a lot more than $1 now and could buy a lot more gold today.

Most people fear the US dollar the most, they though QE would destroy its value, yet you can buy even more gold today with a US $1 than you could 5 years ago.
 

Wow, fear based on reserve banks printing a few dollars...

If you look at the Weimar Republic as an example, they were printing to pay off war debts and as a result caused massive inflation. From Wikipedia:
"Beginning in August 1921, Germany began to buy foreign currency with marks at any price, but that only increased the speed of breakdown in the value of the mark. The lower the mark sank in international markets, the greater the amount of marks was required to buy the foreign currency demanded by the Reparations Commission"

In the more current case, the reserve bank is printing to stop deflation (or to hit a target inflation rate of about 2%). Their end goal is a specific inflation rate, rather than it being a byproduct of anything else. So long as inflation does not get out of control, then there's no real problem.
There's the theoretical problem of the Fed potentially becoming 'insolvent' (Liabilities > Assets), but so long as liquidity remains (they can print money to pay) then the system still works.


Ray Dalio has a great publication (here) detailing this. Surprisingly, it's given me a decent model to work from.
 
I wouldn't be too worried. Australian economy is doing fine. There are issues of course. US economy is OK... industrial production which is an issue (when you're celebrating industrial production not dropping as much this month, cause for concern re growth), capacity utilization is on the low side and non-farm payroll had a really terrible month In May but June and July have been good. The difficulty the fed will run into is balancing some questionable growth statistics with not wanting to have really high inflation.

Oil seems like a big factor right now... if we see an oil bull market we are going to be in interesting times. US core inflation is 2.3% so a rise in the price of oil would really heat up US inflation.
 
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