Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

Source, fact and figures please??? or leave the rubbish at the door...........

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...016/01-overflow/comex gold%coverage ratio.jpg

 

[explod]

Source, fact and figures please??? or leave the rubbish at the door...........

You accusing me of making a faulse statement Champ?

Its from a chart published recently on zerohedge going back 15 years of comex paper contracts to the ounce of gold. I am not able to copy charts on my iPhone. Perhaps someone can pick it up.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

You accusing me of making a faulse statement Champ?

Its from a chart published recently on zerohedge going back 15 years of comex paper contracts to the ounce of gold. I am not able to copy charts on my iPhone. Perhaps someone can pick it up.

Is this it? Your link isn't working.

 

[Trembling Hand]

You accusing me of making a faulse statement Champ?

Its from a chart published recently on zerohedge going back 15 years of comex paper contracts to the ounce of gold. I am not able to copy charts on my iPhone. Perhaps someone can pick it up.

Well kinda.

That chart is open interest of all holders to what Comex has on hand. Can you explain that? Can you tell me how much of the open interest are straight long plays? Can you tell me how many have the capacity to take physical delivery compared to being exercised physical delivery? Can you tell me why the open interest has fallen 11% in the last month? And is that Bullish/Bearish? or otherwise? Can you tell me how many shorts are speculative versus commercial sellers? What percentage of the settled contracts are forced to settle in gold vs just cash going by the futures contract specifications?

 

[explod]

Is this it? Your link isn't working.

Yep, that's it and thanks for posting. Yes realised my link would not go hence the second post. Your chart does not show the latest six months but it directs to the vibe and certainly a huge increase if latest figures are correct.

I am not a dogmatic follower in all such things but gossip around the traps are indicators to bear in mind,, IMHO

 

[sinner]

Well kinda.

That chart is open interest of all holders to what Comex has on hand. Can you explain that? Can you tell me how much of the open interest are straight long plays? Can you tell me how many have the capacity to take physical delivery compared to being exercised physical delivery? Can you tell me why the open interest has fallen 11% in the last month? And is that Bullish/Bearish? or otherwise? Can you tell me how many shorts are speculative versus commercial sellers? What percentage of the settled contracts are forced to settle in gold vs just cash going by the futures contract specifications?

First of all, I would say, actually who cares because COMEX GC volume is a sideshow compared to LBMA and OTC FX XAUUSD+XAUEUR where the volumes are huge. People analysing COMEX data are looking at the small toe of the big giant that is "unallocated gold credit trading". Today, LBMA+OTC is what is driving all prices, be that COMEX GC, GLD or physical.

Factswise, COMEX GC can declare "force majeure" at their discretion and settlement under that circumstance can only occur in either GLD shares or cash. GLD shares are not redeemable for physical under a minimum threshold which is higher than most retail peoples net worth. It's unlikely legitimate market participants (e.g. mines selling future output) would be happy with such a situation, but regardless written in the contract plain as day.

If all one wants is to win some "more dollars" when the chart goes to the upper right, any old paper will do. All I can say is enjoy your "more dollars". If one wants to hold some of their net worth in a 0 duration nonfinancial asset, then the only thing that is an ounce of physical gold is an ounce of physical gold. "More dollars" people want the chart in the upper right, those seeking the latter goal will be much more content with the chart on the lower right where accumulation is simpler.

Meanwhile, as people froth over the small toe, XAUAUD is trading awfully close to its 2011 high,


while unhedged global gold mine equity priced in AUD is down >60%

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Looks like profit taking day - good while it lasted.

Although the bizarro financial markets are getting more bipolar every day, which should be good for gold?

Oil down 5% while the Dow get's ramped defending 16k, again. There goes that correlation? An invisible hand to guide the way... free & fair markets? Perhaps Janet & Co have it under control.....hardly. How old is she anyway - shouldn't she be in a home for the insane by now, along with Greenspan & Bernanke. “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results”, or in their case getting the same results (bubbles) but not fixing the problem?

Flight to the 'safety' of the Yen out of USD's? etc etc More to do with the policy error of the Fed - zero chance of any more rate rises, reversion to another round of QE soon as the recession takes hold.....

Global nirp should be the final straw that breaks the collective backs of the dumb ass Keynesian's once and for all!
Should be good for gold, even if priced in fiat?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Hey Comex, adios muchachos!

 

[gartley]

This rally unlike earlier attempts looks like the "real deal". It's impulsive looking and has got legs

 

[notting]

January retail sales rose 0.2% vs 0.1% increase expected Well f**& me.
US$ rallies against pretty much everything. The consumer is alive!
Sell your gold and put the raising back on the cards Janet- not.

.1
China's back at the table on Monday:microwave

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Hey kiddies, looks like all is swell again in global equities, what with 'the saviors' doing more 'whatever it takes' after more 'success' with previous efforts to crash the global economy.

Looks like a wedgy thingy in gold so perhaps a breather from 'risk' (after the justified? short covering of the last 3 day's on little more than rhetoric & rumor) and rotation back to 'safety' due soon, again? Or, a continuation of the Fed's handypersons monkey hammering? That last burst would have concerned them a bit?

Who's the joke on this time?



Some positives
- NIRP going global with a race to the bottom in the currency wars
- moves to ban cash gaining momentum
they are getting desperate now

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Breakout into resistance?



Hammers not having much long lasting effect these days. Haven't seen the phantom dumper for a while....do your best.

 

[explod]

Hammers not having much long lasting effect these days. Haven't seen the phantom dumper for a while....do your best.

Having trouble with his unravelling mask Uncle.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Some correlations

- Yen to Gold



- Fed Balance to SP500 (need to burn those peaky $100 'bills' to stoke the boiler perhaps?)

Derived from a contract to be traded on the state-run Shanghai Gold Exchange,the Chinese benchmark is set to launch in April, potentially denting the relevance of the current global standard, the U.S. dollar-denominated London price.

And a final note from the biggest hammer.....who say's their existence is "justified"?

New York City, USA – Goldman Sachs the world’s largest investment bank forecast Gold at $1000 per ounce by the end of 2016. In a note to its clients Goldman advice to use the recent impressive rally, which isn’t “justified” and bet against the bullion’s rally.

According to Goldman Sachs analysis the catalyst behind the sharp rise in Gold price is the “systematic risk, particularly in the banking sector” and subsequently concerns over China and Oil, which according to Goldman’s view these fears are not justified.

 

[WRONG'UN]

I seem to recall Goldman Sachs saying oil was going to $200/bl?

 

[John159]

I seem to recall Goldman Sachs saying oil was going to $200/bl?

As I recall, they did say the gold is going for 200$ couple of months ago, but they also set some mid range target prices which haven't been met yet. I will try to find a reference for this.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

An interesting 2 weeks coming up - gold could either continue the break out of this latest wedge or prove GS right? The fact that price hasn't broken down immediately as in past surges is bullish, so if it does break then clear air to mid $1500's? The counter is that equities are on a tear (for some unknown reason??) so could align with the old sell in May & go away cycle ie gold tanks while risk on till April/May then all bets are off as it does a Buzz Lightyear??

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Ascending triangle for continuation, resistance $1250

Trigger? NFP might disappoint big time?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Make or break tonight for gold with the NFP, even though the NFP is one of those deeply flawed set of data.

And it might just 'disappoint' in a big way, if it reflects the more accurate tax withholdings data -

As TrimTabs CEO David Santschi notes, BLS reports "tend to be highly inaccurate, and that the jobs situation generally has been far worse than the BLS has been reporting. In fact, TrimTabs estimates job growth in February was 55,000 to 85,000 - call it 70,000 - the lowest number in two years."

Just hit the previous $1260 high, through the top of triangle....or not?

Good opportunity for the hammers to completely break the technicals here, or they get hammered themselves?

Big moves for everything coming up.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Looks like a fail on the magic NFP.

Gold not believing the figures, hitting $1281.

BlackRock Inc. on Friday said it has suspended the issuance of new shares in the roughly $8 billion iShares Gold Trust, citing a surge in demand for gold.

Tried to withdraw $100 notes from 2 bank's yesterday - all gone! Have to start hoarding $50's

Aussie dollar spoils the party.....