Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[sinner]

Examining half a year of daily bars for the AUD price of gold, my read is that recent action has not been too conducive to further momentum.

The large single day down move in July appeared to be a shakeout after price consolidated below previous support and then powered up ~1640 about a month later. But after the retracement back to ~1550 the proceeding rally attempts above ~1650 have all slowly petered out after their initial move.

The most recent short term swing low at 1568 coincides with a couple of other previous support/resistance points.

 

[Bill M]

This is the most unscientific interpretation of where the gold price is heading. I bought some bullion just over 2 weeks ago, it's bound to go south from here, usually does when I start speculating on commodities. Glad I didn't put the house on it.:1zhelp:

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Which year this time?

Hey trembles, what brings you over to prepperville?

2015. A bit conservative as it's already broken that formation, still a long way to go, so just leverage it with gold equities - NEM up 5%, gold up 2% today, sheeple equities slightly tanking, again. The farce continues......



http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-10-1...-Data-Bullish-Charts-Slumping-U-S-Dollar.html

 

[sinner]

But after the retracement back to ~1550 the proceeding rally attempts above ~1650 have all slowly petered out after their initial move.

More of the same

 

[explod]

More of the same

View attachment 64773

Bottom support line holding. With currencies entering a fight it could be and interesting week.

 

[sinner]

Examining half a year of daily bars for the AUD price of gold, my read is that recent action has not been too conducive to further momentum.

...

But after the retracement back to ~1550 the proceeding rally attempts above ~1650 have all slowly petered out after their initial move.

More of the same, not so slow this time.

 

[sinner]

None of this makes any sense at all UF.

As for gold equities having outperformed gold historically, or recently, LOL. First of all, no they haven't. The $HUI (Gold Bugs Index) which has been trading since the late 90s and tracking unhedged producers, is currently trading at $104, the same price it was trading in 1997! Here's the long term ratio chart just in case anyone thought UF was being serious.

Secondly, any perceived outperformance as I have already explained is only a function of beta. What fundamentalists might call operational leverage to the price of gold. Adjusted for beta, again, no they haven't. You're fooling yourself if you think betting on gold miners represents what you think it does, or if you don't think a better result could be achieved by merely leveraging the cash gold FOREX or front month futures. I have already explained in this thread what high beta does to geometric returns and you can see it plain as day in the above chart.

But it's your money I guess :bonk:

I tried....I think your trees are getting in the way of your forest?

Anyway, some nice moves overnight in gold, so should see gold equities shine, again.

Hey look at that! Gold up 2.7% and NEM up 8%! Let's see how NCM goes?

Nice work UF, almost perfectly picked the top in NCM and perfectly picked it in NEM

What top?

Well, gold has had a tumble since this little exchange, even priced in AUD.

But I thought it was worth revisiting, since the move is a perfect example of the point I was trying to make in the beginning. Any perceived outperformance of gold equities vs gold is usually just a high beta to the gold price.

Gold might be down, but there is definitely one thing it can buy more of than before the tumble, gold miners, which were once again crushed relative to gold, yay beta.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Well, gold has had a tumble since this little exchange, even priced in AUD.

But I thought it was worth revisiting, since the move is a perfect example of the point I was trying to make in the beginning. Any perceived outperformance of gold equities vs gold is usually just a high beta to the gold price.

Gold might be down, but there is definitely one thing it can buy more of than before the tumble, gold miners, which were once again crushed relative to gold, yay beta.

Actually no, gold equity prices are not lower than last time, no lower lows, yet, at least not for NCM. Looking for equities to lead the charge again.

You can't deny that the gains that were made were real and tradeable ie an opportunity to make very good profits, despite some philosophical stance against that???

And so, looking to yet again buy more of both - physical & equities - leading into December.

Both back into buying zones - gold in $AU terms maybe not as attractive but not sure if we will get another op for lower prices.....$AU will get hit once the employment numbers get revisioned away in December, again?

NCM getting close to support, buying at under $11....again.

December will be 'interesting' as global central bankers will finally have to deal with the mess they have created, and the gold 'custodians' will have to stand or deliver........literally.

 

[Wysiwyg]

So from a pattern perspective, the daily descending triangle broke lower on Friday and was bought back up Monday and Tuesday to above the support area. What can be predicted from here I don't know as patterns (bearish in this instance) are created by people so can be altered by people. Definitely a decision point to go up for an oversold case or down for a continuity case.

 

[So_Cynical]

Definitely a decision point to go up for an oversold case or down for a continuity case.

Supply is in destruction mode, no new mines, old mines depleting while demand is steady..peak Gold could well be right now.

 

[CanOz]

The 1000 handle on gold will be almost magnetic in my view, i.e. - there will be a point where the market should really accelerate towards this level as shorts pile on and longs stand aside for the inevitable bounce at 1000. Then of course we can look forward to Goldman pushing the stops out sub 1000 again

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Gold not believing the US Fed policy error is sustainable??

The tides going out and the Fed is starkers!

 

[sinner]

Examining half a year of daily bars for the AUD price of gold, my read is that recent action has not been too conducive to further momentum.

In mid October I provided a warning that the current momentum which had pushed XAUAUD to the top of its price daily chart price range was showing signs of weakness and unlikely to continue.

Bill M also noted amusingly at the time that his "I just bought gold so it must be time to drop" indicator had recently gone off.

Few months later, here we are:



What's my prognostication for 2016? Well as usual I my thoughts tend to follow the musings on FOFOA, so further declines in the USD price of gold are forecast. However I am also forecasting proportional declines in physical availability, i.e. the XAUUSD could go to $600 but undeliverable in size. Gold miners to get crushed in this scenario, as the price drops below production costs.

 

[Bill M]

Bill M also noted amusingly at the time that his "I just bought gold so it must be time to drop" indicator had recently gone off.

I think about my small purchase and that post I wrote quite a lot. I am no expert on Gold but it is not what I call a good investment. I don't think it's going anywhere (bit like the XAO but at least that pays dividends for my pension) and I was planning to revisit that message of mine in 12 Months time. I do not think gold is a very good investment. Luckily it wasn't much more than just a dabble.

If I had to make a bet right now on which would be higher by year end (in AUD terms including dividends) Gold or the XAO, I will bet on the XAO. Let's see what happens.

Today in AUD the POG is $1,562 at 17:08 Hours source http://goldprice.org/
and
Today the XAO closed at 4,969

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Finally, looks like one market is right and one market is wrong.
One group of Keynesians (central bankers) are becoming increasingly irrelevant.
One 'commodity' isn't in a glut......supply won't equal demand.
Then it will be interesting......as the non believers look for alternatives.
Perhaps it is becoming interesting now?
NFP will disappoint as the last of the data prints plays catch up to the real economy.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Interesting. Resolution December/January?

Which year this time?

2015. I'll try and get the exact day next time.

Looking a bit 'extended' here? It would need a particularly weak NFP to break through in this thrust?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Still going - noyce! Where are the monkey hammerers? All out of hammers at Comex?

 

[explod]

A few of us still about Unc.,

Happy new year and all.

comex are happy with the printing press. Just before the festive around 300 contracts to the ounce, recently hit 540 so yeeehaaaar.

Rumours of currency reballance and stablisation to tangible value indicating $50,000 to the ounce. So looking for $2,000 silver for my cave in the hills.

Not one for dreams but we'll see.

And on charts Uncle, have you looked at NST and RMS lately. Somone believes.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

And on charts Uncle, have you looked at NST and RMS lately. Somone believes.

Not getting crushed?



With NST, as with gold, supply can't keep up with demand.....



An interesting thing, usually when the general market is tanking big time like today, goldies get taken down too, but not today. A shift in sentiment?

 

[Trembling Hand]

comex are happy with the printing press. Just before the festive around 300 contracts to the ounce, recently hit 540 so yeeehaaaar.

Source, fact and figures please??? or leave the rubbish at the door...........