Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Joules MM1]

.... like its cousin Crude, the world does not need it that much to hide in inflationary environment.

The discussion should not be about when the Fed will raise rates,
but why they haven’t been able to for so long and likely can’t in an aggressive way in the future.
Take a look below at the price ratio of the iShares Barclays
TIPS Bond Fund ETF (TIP) relative to the PIMCO 7-15 Year
Treasury Index (TENZ). As a reminder, a rising price ratio
means the numerator/TIP (inflation protection buying) is
outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator/TENZ
(non-inflation protection buying). The chart below essentially
tracks market expectations. Notice that as everyone is
endlessly talking about the Fed’s first rate hike, inflation
expectations are utterly collapsing on the far right of the chart.

Some will attribute this to Oil, but inflation expectations have
faltered really since the Summer Crash of 2011 took place despite
a booming US stock market. Stocks, by the way, are not meant to
be a disinflation/deflation hedge, yet investors have piled into them
so aggressively on the hopes that growth and inflation are about to
ramp up. They simply have not, and yield curve flattening remains a
massive issue for central bank tightening. That behavior in the yield
curve, confirmed by collapsing inflation expectations, tends to be an
omen of bad things to come, as proven in the award winning paper
I co-authored....

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/some...article-title-comment&redirectFromSplash=true

 

[AverageJoe]

Probably same sentiment to the "taper tantrum" on the stockmarkets and US economy cannot stand on its own 2 feet without QE? Fast forward we have now moved on to the first rate hike so all the recycle gloom and doom coming back.

All I hear is the world in the three corners are awash with fiat paper and the collapse is coming. Funny Japan with 200%+ dbt to gdp should have collapsed years ago but still chugging along. Hyper inflation from QEs had the goldbugs foaming on the mouth. I wish I could just use the textbook economic logic and apply to analyse and profit. I know nothing...

 

[notting]

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...l=1#post876262

20th-July-2015 03:19 PM
The market was expecting the Chinese reserves to be a little more than what was announced. The announcements are lies so you shouldn't take any notice of them any way.

They dumped on the market along with the conservative announcement, to ramp it down and break technical lows. They probably shorted all kinds of gold related instruments last week.

I guess they will be doing alot of buying over the coming period at down ramped levels, then they will start printing money and lowering the Yaun.

And we all know now what they have done with the Yuan!!


August 14, 2015 10:14 am
Here you have it -

The People’s Bank of China said it bought 19 tonnes of gold last month as prices traded at their lowest levels in five years. That boosted its gold holdings to 1,677 tonnes (53.93m fine troy ounces) at the end of July, an increase of 1 per cent.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/942ac8ee-4260-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf.html#axzz3in0bYBUK

China is playing the world for a sucker. In some ways that lunatic TRUMP is correct.

 

[AverageJoe]

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...l=1#post876262



And we all know now what they have done with the Yuan!!


August 14, 2015 10:14 am
Here you have it -

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/942ac8ee-4260-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf.html#axzz3in0bYBUK

China is playing the world for a sucker. In some ways that lunatic TRUMP is correct.

Price is price whether you think it is manipulated. All price are manipulated if you look carefully across all asset class. Interest rate is manipulated by each CB to their advantage. Base currency is also manipulated for export advantage. Stocks faces manipulation some suspect the HFT, large funds etc. If you want to make money in these sectors, you have to play the game. You follow these smart money instead head butting them for profits.

Here is a classic. US housing is below expectation just now and a big selloff in the Fiber which then infected Silver/gold. I closed out my short prematurely front running the US news LOL. I thought and guessed rightly on the negative US news but did not expect the negative response. And here is the price randomness.

Gold could not test the weekly resistance and have started following suit, stronger USD. Just as well our AUD is following them down the toilet so those exposed to Gold producers locally with no or not much debt may still preserve margins. Those who were bottom picking cheap and dead producers, it will get worse for the long haul.

 

[explod]

The currency war is on,

financials going red,

Gold and silver going green.

 

[gartley]

Going green but one more leg down after this rally finishes to finish the pattern would make me feel more confident. Me thinks Dec/Jan will be the best time to start looking at Gold again as the biggest rally since the decline started should start.
The same goes for the AUD/USD

 

[explod]

Going green but one more leg down after this rally finishes to finish the pattern would make me feel more confident. Me thinks Dec/Jan will be the best time to start looking at Gold again as the biggest rally since the decline started should start.
The same goes for the AUD/USD

In such a manipulated market who can really follow patterns anymore.

They could put gold at zero on paper but physical has them stuffed.

 

[notting]

Going green but one more leg down after this rally finishes to finish the pattern would make me feel more confident. Me thinks Dec/Jan will be the best time to start looking at Gold again as the biggest rally since the decline started should start.
The same goes for the AUD/USD

On the money so far!

I was surprised to see Gold sold off today.
Really indicates that it's more to do with the FED looking to raise than panic over China.

 

[notting]

On the money so far!

I was surprised to see Gold sold off today.
Really indicates that it's more to do with the FED looking to raise than panic over China.

I meant to say the FED and Oil!
Noting the weakness in US transports over the last 3 or 4 months.

 

[explod]

On the money so far!

I was surprised to see Gold sold off today.
Really indicates that it's more to do with the FED looking to raise than panic over China.

Just a run for cash to meet margins elsewhere. Up 5% on the month. What else is?

Gold usually rises about 5 days after market tanking. And then watch.

 

[gartley]

Just a run for cash to meet margins elsewhere. Up 5% on the month. What else is?

Gold usually rises about 5 days after market tanking. And then watch.

One more leg up for Gold after to around 1190 maybe even over 1200. After that will be interesting to see if it heads for new lows or not. I have a feeling that even if it does it will be only a minor new low and then it will rally.

 

[notting]

Just a run for cash to meet margins elsewhere. Up 5% on the month. What else is?

Gold usually rises about 5 days after market tanking. And then watch.

So we'd be buying at the end of trade Wednesday or there abouts?

What a yous reckon?

 

[explod]

So we'd be buying at the end of trade Wednesday or there abouts?

What a yous reckon?

I'd be waiting for the markets to bottom. Could rout for awhile yet and gold contine to fall.

 

[notting]

I'd be waiting for the markets to bottom. Could rout for awhile yet and gold contine to fall.

Yeah but, that's the end of the crises so gold would logically go down, given the only thing that seems to make it go up these days is a crises.

If it's going to be bought at all it should have been today!

 

[qldfrog]

Yeah but, that's the end of the crises so gold would logically go down, given the only thing that seems to make it go up these days is a crises.

If it's going to be bought at all it should have been today!

market did not tank aka 10% or so, some people are still buying at the current price and gold is sold to get the cash needed...the reason in a crash everything goes down at least initially, but I expect it to surge later; in any case, in AUD, I am very happy having some gold...

 

[explod]

Anyone that knows could see this coming.

I took two bags, kilos, of pre 46 silver scrap from my dealer Sunday.

Physical in the hand will be one of the few things safe in my view. Paper money is going to be fluff.

 

[AverageJoe]

Anyone that knows could see this coming.

I took two bags, kilos, of pre 46 silver scrap from my dealer Sunday.

Physical in the hand will be one of the few things safe in my view. Paper money is going to be fluff.

What is the spread of that physical Silver you are being charged? The way it is looking on the chart, it may hold for the time being before some dude short it through the support. It is currently losing its PM appeal.

 

[explod]

What is the spread of that physical Silver you are being charged? The way it is looking on the chart, it may hold for the time being before some dude short it through the support. It is currently losing its PM appeal.

Current spread or in fact paper price is of little concern.

Paid $650 a kilo bag, the coins if you sort have thier own values. Note some good ones in the mix.

My purpose is long term accumulation, in the hand, not in some bank or part of the paper shuffle.

Current AUS silver price $663, Davis Melbourne's price a bag today $645

Sure the price may drop further with the markets but as I stated a number of times recently watch it rise when markets have bottomed and we could be a fair way off that in the current implosion. More stacking opportunities perhaps.

But just my humble take.

 

[sinner]

Current AUS silver price $663, Davis Melbourne's price a bag today $645

But the bag is not 100% silver, it's only 92.5% silver.

663 * 0.925 = 613.27

645/613.27 = 1.0517 ...so you are paying a 5% premium over spot. Not that the spot price matters for junk silver, because dealers will never pay the spot price to buy it back. You'll probably get 5% or more below spot.

Just to set the record straight for the gold thread, compared to how you displayed it.

 

[explod]

But the bag is not 100% silver, it's only 92.5% silver.

663 * 0.925 = 613.27

645/613.27 = 1.0517 ...so you are paying a 5% premium over spot. Not that the spot price matters for junk silver, because dealers will never pay the spot price to buy it back. You'll probably get 5% or more below spot.

Just to set the record straight for the gold thread, compared to how you displayed it.

If silver goes to $300, which I expect down the track who cares. Currently silver gold ratio 74/1 historicaly, 15/1 and less silver than gold due its industrial uses, solar panels ect., I expect the ratio to change dramatically the other way when the penny drops. And in my view when the markets and currencies exhaust themselves the next runup in gold will surpass $3000.

I am not a trader, my outlook ahead is 5 to 10 years.