Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[sinner]

It doesn't matter, the point is we are bringing a lot more oil to market every day now than we were in 1990 and we have about the same years of reserves, if you believed the numbers in 1990, we shouldn't have any oil left by now, Since 1990 we have produced more oil than the stated reserves of 1990, simply because we keep finding more

ok. ok man, you win. I concede. You are the most hilarious poster that ASF has ever seen.

 

[Value Collector]

ok. ok man, you win. I concede. You are the most hilarious poster that ASF has ever seen.

Ok so who is the troll here, you seemed to have filled the role quite well.

It doesn't matter, the point is we are bringing a lot more oil to market every day now than we were in 1990 and we have about the same years of reserves, if you believed the numbers in 1990, we shouldn't have any oil left by now, Since 1990 we have produced more oil than the stated reserves of 1990, simply because we keep finding more

You put the above in bold, as if you were ignoring the sentences in between.

My point it. Today we have a very productive oil industry, producing more than 80 million of barrels every day.

If you simply believed that dividing reserves by current production gave you an accurate picture of the future supply, then today we should not have an oil industry.

when I pointed out that offcourse more oil (and gold ) will be found so such a calculation is pointless, you asked
What's the EROEI on all that new "oil" which the IAEA calls "unconvential liquids" or some other silly name?

But that is a red herring to my point, offcourse I understand that the new oil on average is harder to get, and requires more to process, but that doesn't matter when the point I am making is that the industry shouldn't exist at all by the simplistic calculation put forward, when infact we are still producing more oil than ever, and finding more all the time.

Is there a limit to oil? offcourse there is, but the reserves estimate of 1990 gave you no insight to what that eventual limit is, and the reserve estimate of 2015 or 2025 won't either, Same with any reserve estimate of gold.

And gold is worse than oil, as I said at least they burn the oil, the gold is just getting piled up, so the reserves are not actually being depleted.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Is there a limit to oil? offcourse there is, but the reserves estimate of 1990 gave you no insight to what that eventual limit is, and the reserve estimate of 2015 or 2025 won't either, Same with any reserve estimate of gold.

We’ve hit peak economic gold discoveries, but unlike the new fracking technologies that saved the oil industry, there’s no fracking technology to coax mineral wealth from ever-deeper deposits.

The point is, they are not finding any more gold. Even when they do find it, it takes several years to bring to production. Peak gold will be a reality. Now if market forces were left to their own devices to enable price discovery then there would be an increased effort to find more gold based on the market price, but alas it is not to be.

So the elastic get's stretched until firstly fundamentals then sentiment take charge?

So we may have the perfect storm brewing here - basic supply/demand, the always present geopolitical plus a little bit of central bank induced QE & ZIRP carnage? It'll be a wild ride!

http://static.businessinsider.com/image/510e859c69bedd0568000003/image.jpg

 

[Value Collector]

The point is, they are not finding any more gold.

That's just False.

 

[explod]

That's just False.

How about some facts on that statement?

 

[Value Collector]

How about some facts on that statement?

I think the statement that needs to be proven is this one

"The point is, they are not finding any more gold."

If that were true, all the gold explorers around the world are wasting their time, and that no new gold deposits have been found, and no existing deposits have had their reserves upgraded.

Here is a gold discovery from this year.

http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/news/barrick-s-new-gold-discovery-turning-heads

So did the "Not finding any more gold" start after this one?

 

[notting]

http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/ne...-turning-heads
So did the "Not finding any more gold" start after this one?

Yes, that's the last gold find ever.

 

[skyQuake]

There is also a non-zero chance scientists will be able to synthesize gold in the future.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Albrecht/2...uclear-Reactor-Creates-Gold-and-Platinum.html

Just like diamonds in the 1900s

 

[Ves]

Well, as a wise man once reminded us:
"gold and oil can never flow in the same direction" - ANOTHER, Oct 5, 1997.

http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2008/08/king-and-his-gold.html (this is basically "It's the Flow Stupid" and "Flow Addendum" in childrens story format).

Hypothetical for you, what kind of affect on the current situation that he describes, would a civilisation that becomes less reliable on oil because of increased use of renewable energy technology?

Is there a point where it matters a lot to his quoted statement "gold and oil can never flow in the same direction" and the circumstances that this has caused? Or do you think it is a moot point and there is no paradigm shift possible?

 

[sinner]

Hypothetical for you, what kind of affect on the current situation that he describes, would a civilisation that becomes less reliable on oil because of increased use of renewable energy technology?

Is there a point where it matters a lot to his quoted statement "gold and oil can never flow in the same direction" and the circumstances that this has caused? Or do you think it is a moot point and there is no paradigm shift possible?

I think if you generalise the case (to debtors and savers) you will find that the approximate same applies everywhere, i.e. "savings and consumption will never flow in the same direction, and gold is the only real form of savings".

http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/07/debtors-and-savers.html
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/debtors-and-savers-2012.html

 

[Value Collector]

and gold is the only real form of savings".

I think that's where we disagree, I believe savings can take many forms, it certainly isn't restricted to gold.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

That's just False.

I should have said, they are not replacing resources to replace current production because it's uneconomic. What they are finding, when they find it, is more costly and at lower grades, with the increasingly rare odd exception.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

We may see gold crisis in 2017/18. Even gold can go down to as low as $300 by 2017. USD could become supper winner among hard currencies by 2017/18. My initial target for Gold was $500 by 2017. However, now I believe it can go below that level as well due to some factors. Still we haven’t seen interest rates adjustment in the USA. It should adjust gradually from 2016 onwards. Therefore, we should see bigger fall in gold prices in 2016 as well. Coming USA factor will crush gold. As I forecasted, I am going to stay with my bear call for gold.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors...unce-2015-07-29

Opinion: Study predicts gold could plunge to $350 an ounce

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.

 

[explod]

How about some reasons?

 

[explod]

We may see gold crisis in 2017/18. Even gold can go down to as low as $300 by 2017. USD could become supper winner among hard currencies by 2017/18. My initial target for Gold was $500 by 2017. However, now I believe it can go below that level as well due to some factors. Still we haven’t seen interest rates adjustment in the USA. It should adjust gradually from 2016 onwards. Therefore, we should see bigger fall in gold prices in 2016 as well. Coming USA factor will crush gold. As I forecasted, I am going to stay with my bear call for gold.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors...unce-2015-07-29

Opinion: Study predicts gold could plunge to $350 an ounce

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.

Please source where this information is from.

 

[DeepState]

Please source where this information is from.

This is the primary underlying research document. For the most part, the predictions arise from observation of inflation adjusted gold prices over a period which extends back to 1975 (at most). The idea is that this should revert back to average. It is presently above average. Over this period there have been two spikes, OPEC 2 and GFC. The very low price predictions make allowance for moving through the inflation adjusted (trended) average and over-reacting to the downside. MarketWinner has additional views about the strength of the USD, based at least upon the upcoming lift-off in rates, which compound this observation from a USD perspective

 

[Uncle Festivus]

MarketWinner has additional views about the strength of the USD, based at least upon the upcoming lift-off in rates, which compound this observation from a USD perspective

Lift-off implies leaving the leaving ground ZIRP and a steady rise to the heavens? More likely this-

https://youtu.be/TatYYI-mEjE

A couple of metres off the launch pad maybe then kapow :flush:

 

[DeepState]

Lift-off implies leaving the leaving ground ZIRP and a steady rise to the heavens? More likely this-

https://youtu.be/TatYYI-mEjE

A couple of metres off the launch pad maybe then kapow :flush:

I think USD strength of the type imagined by MW is a viable (if not central case) scenario and does not necessarily require especially hawkish monetary policy on the part of the Fed. For example, a sovereign or other credit event in Japan or capital flight from disorderly developments in Emerging Markets can have this effect.

 

[Tyler Durden]

There's been a bit of talk lately in the media from several "experts" about how gold is only going to go down and that it is of no use or value anymore in this day and age, which conveniently coincides with a time when China is building their own islands and at military odds with the US.

Maybe some people foresee a possible war coming and want to buy some gold now at a lower price?

#conspiracytheoryidiot

 

[AverageJoe]

That's just False.

Agree, we had Peak oil in the seventies now they bring out Peak Gold. If it is so rare and price goes back to say 2000$, just watch a flurry of ancient mines suddenly becoming profitable. You could makes LOADS of money on super pit for the next 50 years at those prices.

Price going down because like its cousin Crude, the world does not need it that much to hide in inflationary environment.