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Gold production is probably out performing, considering more is being mined than is used for any practicle purpose.
Maybe this will help:
View attachment 63633
Equities are a crap hedge against unexpected and disorderly inflation.
No doubt there would be disruptions to markets in such an unexpected inflationary environment, but provided you held longterm assets, the disruption would be temporary, once the inflation balanced or new currency was issued the assets would return to fair value in the new currency and continue earning.
the real underlying assets will have the same longterm inflation hedge as gold does, as long as the holding period used to measure covers both boom and bust cycle, but as I said, it's the income and internal asset growth that provides the out performance from other assets over gold.
Let's use that argument....and bring it to something a little more familiar.
In the very long run the value of land will rise. It may even generate income. It is a productive asset.
On the basis of your argument about long term...I guess you shouldn't bother insuring your property then, right? Because insurance generally has a negative return expectation and all that matters in life is the super long term and equilibrium arguments.
In the very long term, you can earn enough to rebuild your burned out and ransacked home. Restoring you to a long term equilibrium position. Thus, on this argument, there is no need for insurance to help tie you through the shorter term, right?
No?
Apparently, the long run is comprised of several short runs all lined up. If these short run periods contain critical periods where amazing insights derived from hindsight analysis are somewhat lacking at the time, and the drawdowns hurt in real time, most people insure at least some of that risk.
Apparently, gold has that property in certain conditions related to financial markets. Perhaps that's still unclear.
I think there are a better ways to manage your capital to prevent erosion from inflation and also survive the highly unlikely situation of hyper inflation than holding gold.
My bullion is kept warm at night by the good folk in the Perth Mint.If you want to talk insurance, you should probably insure your bullion, then not only are you not earning income, but you have a negative income situation, which makes the gold even worse.
I really was hoping to receive a response from somebody armed with some facts to support their opinion. However, since you've so generously offered yours, I'd be interested to hear from anyone that can offer some factually grounded evidence to confirm (or alternatively refute) such opinion/s.
I really was hoping to receive a response from somebody armed with some facts to support their opinion. However, since you've so generously offered yours, I'd be interested to hear from anyone that can offer some factually grounded evidence to confirm (or alternatively refute) such opinion/s.
Can anybody here tell me whether the growth in the human population is outperforming or underperforming the growth in physical gold reserves?
I can't see how it a crap inflation hedge, over time the market price of the stock indexes has out performed inflation, But again I think you have left out the income from your calcs.
Good assets will just continue to produce income in what ever the currenecy of the day is, hell if it comes down to it, we will even accept your gold as payment, every meal, rental payment or product you need to buy we will take some of your gold, we will end up with the farmland and your gold
Lol, just because I don't buy you party line doesn't make me a troll.
...such as....
My bullion is kept warm at night by the good folk in the Perth Mint.
So the cost of your house and contents is now lifted by 1% per annum. Will you now choose to self-insure? Last I looked, House and Contents insurance wasn't listed under income producing asset.
I really was hoping to receive a response from somebody armed with some facts to support their opinion. However, since you've so generously offered yours, I'd be interested to hear from anyone that can offer some factually grounded evidence to confirm (or alternatively refute) such opinion/s.
The USGS keeps track of estimated annual global gold mine production. Exhibit 18 presents the USGS
gold mine production time series, which starts with the year 1900. Annual global mine production has
averaged about 2,500 tons per year for the last few years. In 1900, about 30,000 metric tons of gold had
already been mined. This means that over 80% of the current above ground supply of gold has been
mined since 1900 and that the above ground stock of gold has increased by about 1.5% per annum. If
global production of gold continues at a rate of 2,500 metric tons a year, and if the USGS is correct in its
estimate that there are only 51,000 metric tons of exploitable gold reserves, then gold production will
be exhausted in about 20 years.
"and interest rates would increase" what the ??? global rates have been zero bound for 8 YEARS! They are not going back up to normalise any decade soon?
"you could put up you rents"
So you've had an "event" that wiped 30% yet your solutions are exactly opposite to what would happen in the real world??
In any event VC yo have given life to this thread after it was going comatose, but I don' think we are getting through to you so bon voyage......
25years on when Oil should have been depleted, we have more more reserves in the ground and are producing almost double per day, and people are worried about a glut, and that's a commodity who's daily production is literally burned every day.
The fun never ends with EurodollarCollector.
What's the EROEI on all that new "oil" which the IAEA calls "unconvential liquids" or some other silly name? :bonk:
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