Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Mr Z]

I was sucked in too back in 2002. Playing Bolinsi and NEM and the lot. But jumped off in 2004-5 when it became apparent that I was in the company of mad men.

This is where most rabid bugs end up shooting themselves in the foot! The likes of GATA scare more investors away than they attract. All the chit surrounding this market just curls peoples toes!

If recent reports are to be believed more upper middle class US money is buying real metal, the bigger dealers are talking more of seven figure purchases. For whatever that is worth, I would still say it is a stretch to say that most little guys think its a good play... more like an insane play, after all look at the market cap of the whole gold stock market, it is summin like macca's isn't it?, not much bigger, no room for a crowd!

 

[Trembling Hand]

2:1, how on earth do you figure that? 2:1 of people that bother to look at a gold thread? Come now, most here don't care that this thread exists! You must be talking a personal bias there!

Everyone here knows the QE = inflation = Gold going up.

 

[Mr Z]

Everyone here knows the QE = inflation = Gold going up.

oh, right, I'm afraid I don't know that.

Silly me thinking that it has more to do with the velocity of money and a couple of other confidence related factors.

but, but, but.... you are talking to the sum total of about 20 people are you not? Hardly every man and his dog, dawg!

I think that gold has traumatized you in the past and that you have not forgiven her, maybe you fell under a gold guru's spell? You trading hardman you....

 

[troyxlr8]

So, is there any money to be made in gold on the short term these days? or more of a long term investment?

I did read a couple of weeks ago that Gold was expected to hit $1800 by the end of the year..

 

[Trembling Hand]

oh, right, I'm afraid I don't know that.

Silly me thinking that it has more to do with the velocity of money and a couple of other confidence related factors.

but, but, but.... you are talking to the sum total of about 20 people are you not? Hardly every man and his dog, dawg!

I think that gold has traumatized you in the past and that you have not forgiven her, maybe you fell under a gold guru's spell? You trading hardman you....

Nice having a discussion with you. Guess will just go back to trading insults and seeing who has the biggest line.... I don't mind playing that game. :sheep::chainsaw:

 

[young-gun]

Yes. They have.

Exactly what do you believe has changed??

 

[troyxlr8]

Nice having a discussion with you. Guess will just go back to trading insults and seeing who has the biggest line.... I don't mind playing that game. :sheep::chainsaw:

So aren't you hardcore traders meant to be watching ticks or candles or something isn't of trading insults?

 

[Mr Z]

Nice having a discussion with you. Guess will just go back to trading insults and seeing who has the biggest line.... I don't mind playing that game. :sheep::chainsaw:

Awwwwww....

Don't be shearing with a chainsaw, its a little hard on the spectators.

You seemed a little out of argument so I went for some levity, forgive me.

 

[chops_a_must]

Exactly what do you believe has changed??

That we are deflating.

Not inflating.

 

[jancha]

Nice having a discussion with you. Guess will just go back to trading insults and seeing who has the biggest line.... I don't mind playing that game. :sheep::chainsaw:

Yes I can testify to that.....let the games begin! lol
Good posting Z

 

[Mr Z]

That we are deflating.

Not inflating.

It is not quite that cut and dried.

 

[young-gun]

That we are deflating.

Not inflating.

Hasn't that always been the case? It's exactly what the central banks have been printing against all this time. I think the more common belief among gold bugs is that deflation will tighten its grasp for a second round, rattle the global economy(taking gold down with it temporarily) at which point central bankers ramp up the presses to the point of no return, as they seem hell bent on not allowing us to slip into a cleansing depression.

At least that what I believe may play out

 

[CanOz]

The monthly and weekly Volume Weighted Average Price show some areas of resistance now, but the biggest trading opportunity would be the GAP from Monday night.

You would expect the gap to be tested and it would be resistance then support for higher prices.

So far we're not seeing a massive short covering rally, but we have started to bracket around the action from the this week.

There are some key levels to watch, on the right hand side.

The last chart is the Market Profile for today's Globex session, "value" has been accepted in this area so far, this is a good sign for the bulls. The market must bracket (Range) before it can trend again. Price can seek value at the top of the bracket and either reverse, establish value, or accelerate through and establish value higher.

Opposite for the bottom of the range. For now, odds favor a bracket...

CanOz

CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Gold is making its move to close that gap...Looks like some shorts running for cover now too

 

[Uncle Festivus]

That we are deflating.

Not inflating.

I think for the mainstream populace who get bombarded, and believe, the usual 'gold as an inflation hedge' story will be dissapointed because the situation has progressed passed that paradigm and is heading towards simply preservation of wealth or more importantly in some countries, theft of wealth.

For the inflation meme to take hold the QE has to get out into the wider system, which from the various M aggregates, it does not appear to be so ie as per Zed man, where's the velocity? The extra liquidity just gets funnelled into the TBTF banks various pet trades like equities etc perhaps even as funding for massive short positions in gold, because there is bugger all left to get a decent return from thanks to ZIRP? There's also the fact that banks have still been (secretly?) covering their housing portfolio losses with the QE proceeds ie new money probably is only keeping up with liquidated 'old' money? If there was still mark-to-market for banks liabilities ie home loans then the truth would still be very ugly.

Bottom line is, the GFC is not over, it's just progressed to a new phase & is getting closer to Australia (via China & Japan hard landing) and our banks are as susceptible to external shocks still (plenty of stories about how close the big 4 came to getting into serious trouble back in 2008).

How many of your paper millions can you fit under your bed?

PS good effort there CanOz.

 

[So_Cynical]

I found this little chestnut form 2 and a half years ago..around the time i was unwinding my gold positions.

(20th-September-2010)i jumped on the gold train at about $650 and have enjoyed the ride (the GFC and deleveraging turned out to be the best bit ) however im not a bug, im an investor that saw an opportunity and have followed that for over 3 years....i know this runaway gold train will eventually be derailed, this will not be a calculated, orderly pull into the station when its all over...it will be a full on derailment.

We are in the early to mid stages of a ETF gold bubble...all the additional demand is coming from ETF investors and speculators, when they decide to start unwinding there positions is gona be ugly...and i want to be in cash when that happens, ready to buy back in at the bottom....unfortunately for the bugs they wont be.

As usual my thinking was a little ahead of the curve.

 

[CanOz]

The DX is one time framing it to the recent lows....This will throw the cat amongst the pigeons if it breaks down!

CanOz

 

[nulla nulla]

Not being all that experienced in the gold market I make my observations on the passage of the price of gold based on my slightly less limited experience in equities.

Todays rebound to US$1,385.00 looks like a dead cat bounce. The volumes involved in the rebound are unlikely to go anywhere near the likely amount of "shorts" that drove the price down from US$1,560.00 just a few days ago.

Of course if I'm wrong then we will see this in the next week or so as Gold begins to claw its way back above the historical support levels. Then again if I'm right, we will see gold test new lows in the next week or so.

I don't trade futures and I don't invest in "longs" in gold mining stocks (in fact I keep clear of most resource stocks). I just find it interesting watching normaly cool headed posters in here becoming emotional over their perspective to the direction of gold prices. In some instance there apears to be an element of denial that the gold price was forming a bubble and now the bubble has well and truly burst.

 

[CanOz]

The DX is one time framing it to the recent lows....This will throw the cat amongst the pigeons if it breaks down!

CanOz

The DX has just made fresh lows, GC 06-13 has closed the gap with 2000 contracts over a 5 min candle.

The gap is still in play, now it either reverses, accelerates through or brackets here, accepting "value"....

CanOz

 

[Mr Z]

In some instance there apears to be an element of denial that the gold price was forming a bubble and now the bubble has well and truly burst.

Bubble talk, love it... and how do you actually come to that conclusion? Just what is it about this that makes you think it is a bubble and that it has burst? Do tell!