Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[CanOz]

Now down to US$1,347.50 per ounce, maybe we should sing Credence Clearwater Revival "Who'll stop the rain" and substitute "price" for "rain".

Just goes to show what you can do with deep pockets, a bit of media coverage and a big client base willing to follow your lead. They must be making billions as we speak.

Change it to PAIN...lol

Imagine the margin calls...

 

[nulla nulla]

Change it to PAIN...lol

Imagine the margin calls...

Yeah, more forced sells, more falls through stop losses and more sells again. A repeating cycle, where is the bottom?

Now back to US$1,352.00, maybee....just maybeeeee... Although the chart looks like crap.




Strewth!!!!

 

[bigdog]

Gold prices dropped $140 to $1,361 an ounce, a 9 percent fall.

Gold has now slumped $203 an ounce over the past two days.

 

[CanOz]

Gold prices dropped $140 to $1,361 an ounce, a 9 percent fall.

Gold has now slumped $203 an ounce over the past two days.

Looks like John Paulson's fund has lost a billion dollars on gold in the last few days.....now why would a guy like Paulson play in a manipulated market like gold?

Deep pockets liquidating longs!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Looks like John Paulson's fund has lost a billion dollars on gold in the last few days.....now why would a guy like Paulson play in a manipulated market like gold?

Deep pockets liquidating longs!

I can't see that he has sold anything yet? Not that there is any sympathy for ETF holders. Paulson is made out to be some sort of investing guru but from what I can gather he just got really lucky shorting a bubble?

Seems to be a $40 staircase down, rally, then another $40 down etc so far?

Nibbled some more physical @ $US1325/$AU1285

 

[CanOz]

I can't see that he has sold anything yet? Not that there is any sympathy for ETF holders. Paulson is made out to be some sort of investing guru but from what I can gather he just got really lucky shorting a bubble?

Seems to be a $40 staircase down, rally, then another $40 down etc so far?

Nibbled some more physical @ $US1325/$AU1285

Waiting for a bracket to start, 1302 is still reachable...will update when I get home with some key levels...

 

[Trembling Hand]

Gee it is jumping all over the place. It looks like the HSI

 

[CanOz]

I'm still amazed at the DX, it's been quiet, balanced for a few days....despite all the action in commodities.

CanOz

 

[Mr Z]

Getting closer! Looking like a test of 1200 is possible and quite soon. USDX is not there yet, I expect it to rally the DOW etc to continue to correct and short gold and related positions to be closed out and flipped under the covering fire that a stock market sell off would provide. If that is the case we should see relative strength in PM's etc against the DOW. It is finally over when the DOW is done correcting IMO...

Quite an impressive blood bath no?

 

[explod]

Getting closer! Looking like a test of 1200 is possible and quite soon. USDX is not there yet, I expect it to rally the DOW etc to continue to correct and short gold and related positions to be closed out and flipped under the covering fire that a stock market sell off would provide. If that is the case we should see relative strength in PM's etc against the DOW. It is finally over when the DOW is done correcting IMO...

Quite an impressive blood bath no?

Have to concede Z, you have been correct all the way.

I am astounded at the power of those behind the markets and the fear created. Of course we were warned right enough over the years.

My sources tell that lines for physical largest ever and of course the spread now between the metals is upwards to 100% in some cases.

For Z

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Getting closer! Looking like a test of 1200 is possible and quite soon. USDX is not there yet, I expect it to rally the DOW etc to continue to correct and short gold and related positions to be closed out and flipped under the covering fire that a stock market sell off would provide. If that is the case we should see relative strength in PM's etc against the DOW. It is finally over when the DOW is done correcting IMO...

Quite an impressive blood bath no?

I remember your 1200 from yonks ago but refresh our memories for that call?

So do you think it is a technical/paper/ETF driven 'correction' (by the The Firms) or genuine 'get me outa here' cycle finished thing?

 

[aclassic]

Getting closer!

Quite an impressive blood bath no?

cheers Z

Dripping red here.

Oh my Medusa :-(

Serious? 1200 ?

 

[Trembling Hand]

So do you think it is a technical/paper/ETF driven 'correction' (by the The Firms) or genuine 'get me outa here' cycle finished thing?

Does it matter? Are they not really the same thing - just different ends of the stick.

 

[young-gun]

I remember your 1200 from yonks ago but refresh our memories for that call?

So do you think it is a technical/paper/ETF driven 'correction' (by the The Firms) or genuine 'get me outa here' cycle finished thing?

There's articles popping up everywhere calling the end of the gold bubble. The fundamentals haven't changed. Things will eventually calm down.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Does it matter? Are they not really the same thing - just different ends of the stick.

I think it does, so just asking Mr Z for his perspective. At street level it's mostly people buying physical than selling, if you go by the clientele at the bullion co's.

Also, all these shorts have to be closed sooner or later so that will be interesting?

 

[chops_a_must]

There's articles popping up everywhere calling the end of the gold bubble. The fundamentals haven't changed. Things will eventually calm down.

Yes. They have.

 

[Mr Z]

So do you think it is a technical/paper/ETF driven 'correction' (by the The Firms) or genuine 'get me outa here' cycle finished thing?

No, without going to far into conspiracy land the reports that I tend to credit are along the line that the events in Cyprus tripped off enough demand for physical metal that certain counter parties are at risk of default. This appears to have been a well thought out and orchestrated response to that threat, not to mention very effective. I have seen no claims of who is demanding how much metal but I would guess that, given the reserve ratio that some of these bullion banks run, it would not take an enormous amount over normal demand to throw a wobble into the system. Gold is not such a big market in the scheme of things. Maybe it is PO'd Russians looking to pull their cards closer to their chest. If true it would certainly seem that it is an unexpected and unintended consequence of actions taken in Cypruss. These things are not normally thought through to the enth degree, look at the trigger Lehman turned out to be.

So the short answer is ---> It looks like someone is in a boat load of trouble!

FWIW, once these lows are done I am feeling very positive about the next one to two years for gold. I have one caveat, you will need to be fleet of foot, I think the the new game will be to foster volatility to such a degree that gold appears to be an unattractive alternate to any conservative investor. If I am correct the next major high, if it occurs, should be mightily impressive, yet the next major correction will be even more terrifying than this.

 

[Mr Z]

Does it matter? Are they not really the same thing - just different ends of the stick.

I guess it depends if you are a trader or investor, no? The former, no it doesn't matter, the response should be to price alone and automatic.... investors however really do need to understand why... no? Or have I got the wrong end of your stick?

 

[Mr Z]

I think it does, so just asking Mr Z for his perspective. At street level it's mostly people buying physical than selling, if you go by the clientele at the bullion co's.

Also, all these shorts have to be closed sooner or later so that will be interesting?

One US dealer I spoke to this AM said that he had not seen physical metal this short since the low in 1980 just prior to the moon shot. Wrung out, they are buying everything over there, it looks to him like a major low from his seat of the pants feel for the market at the front line.

 

[FlyingFox]

No, without going to far into conspiracy land the reports that I tend to credit are along the line that the events in Cyprus tripped off enough demand for physical metal that certain counter parties are at risk of default. This appears to have been a well thought out and orchestrated response to that threat, not to mention very effective. I have seen no claims of who is demanding how much metal but I would guess that, given the reserve ratio that some of these bullion banks run, it would not take an enormous amount over normal demand to throw a wobble into the system. Gold is not such a big market in the scheme of things. Maybe it is PO'd Russians looking to pull their cards closer to their chest. If true it would certainly seem that it is an unexpected and unintended consequence of actions taken in Cypruss. These things are not normally thought through to the enth degree, look at the trigger Lehman turned out to be.

So the short answer is ---> It looks like someone is in a boat load of trouble!

FWIW, once these lows are done I am feeling very positive about the next one to two years for gold. I have one caveat, you will need to be fleet of foot, I think the the new game will be to foster volatility to such a degree that gold appears to be an unattractive alternate to any conservative investor. If I am correct the next major high, if it occurs, should be mightily impressive, yet the next major correction will be even more terrifying than this.

Great insight and great call. I have been holding back buying some bullion for a month or so now. Am glad I did but will be looking to get some if/when the bottom appears.

I guess it depends if you are a trader or investor, no? The former, no it doesn't matter, the response should be to price alone and automatic.... investors however really do need to understand why... no? Or have I got the wrong end of your stick?

+1. I think it matters also as a trader because it might help you to gauge where other movements will occur/follow.