Gold Price - Where is it heading?

FlyingFox · 24 March 2013

zac said:
The recent rise in gold even though it was minimal and subdued does seem to be due to Cyprus.

I was surprised to see Silver slowly get lower but thanks for that article, it says it all.

Well it is another opinion. As always take it with a big grain of salt and make up your own mind. But it does pose some interesting questions and answers.

zac said:
Does this mean that due to the manipulation, and I know as theyve become a basel currency will this mean that the current levels (or lower) wont be reached ever again when Banks are happy they have amassed enough booty??

Didn't realise that Gold was back in Tier 1. Thanks. What does it mean? Don't know. What is enough booty? Personally, and this is just opinion, there needs to be a big shift from the current system to substantially push metals up. People just love debt and keeping up with the Jones and physical metals have lost their attraction. Until that changes no big push up and if there is hedging or manipulation, some downward pressure.

young-gun · 24 March 2013

So_Cynical said:
16 Aug 2011, don't know if this is as relevant now.

Gold stocks getting hammered with most of the ones im watching hitting new 52 week lows over the last few weeks...there is an opportunity coming but were not quite there yet.

FlyingFox said:
Just watching this now. Have to agree with SC, lost some relevance while other parts are still applicable today. Having said that he is a good speaker and presents some interesting facts. One of the best simple descriptions of the currency cycle I have heard....

I'd have to disagree. I don't know that the current climate has really changed all that much from 18 months ago. Everything is just getting worse, fed is printing more etc. Everything still points to something big imo.

notting said:
Can't believe people get sucked into this scamsters (Mike Maloney) rubbish.
Go be a sucker and attend his Sprooking seminar make sure you buy all the crap offered there too.
Make him rich that way, cause he can't do it trading gold.

Haha, yeah because his spruiking has seen gold go through the roof! Maloney, Schiff, Soros, Celente, Keiser, Rogers and many others. All these guys have been banging on about gold for years. Schiff and Maloney have vested interests, but 2 guys spruiking gold isn't going to move the price, and they would be stupid to think that their opinion is going to bring them great riches and move the gold market so they can cash out. It's the only logical step, and it will eventually take off. These guys are still very contrarian to mainstream.

zac said:
I've heard that about him, but whats his scam?
As for his theories on Gold, theyre widely known and shared.

So Ive often wondered what is he selling?

There is no scam, imo they are simply opening peoples eyes to the corruption that is the current financial system. Maloney makes his money by 1. being a bullion dealer, which I imagine wouldn't be an easy buck to turn, as the market has had a fair bit of downside lately, and 2. people can sign up for his updates - 'insiders' I think it is called, quite a hefty price I think($1500?), however all his education videos are free, so i dunno. Oh he also wrote the rich dad advisors book to investing in bullion, likely did quite well from that. He's been buying bullion since 2000 or so - probably even earlier.

Unfortunately a lot of people turn a blind eye to these theories on gold with the 'that will never happen' attitude.

jea1702 · 29 March 2013

guycharles said:
We have seen the false start and the consolidation. Now that more and more people are starting to realise inflation is about to go nuts and that is good for Gold.

Good prediction mate, wish I'd heeded your advice in 2004 and bought some of the stuff. As of late March 2013 however, I still think gold is a good bet.

Firstly gold has come down off its heady highs from a year ago and many investors are selling as there is uncertainty of wether gold's bull run is over, so now would be a good time to get in the game. I definately do not think that gold's bull run is over-firstly because despite all the politicians claims the 'recession is over,' the recent fiasco with Cyprus shows Europe is still very much on shakey ground, the US is a long way from sorting out its fiscal mess, China's future prospects are very much uncertain owing to its vast internal debt, runaway property market, rising cost of imports and reduced demand for its exports in the West and almost every Government in the World is printing money, meaning future inflation is a given without the economic growth to offset it and what do people do to hedge against a worthless paper currency? Buy gold.

Last and not least, China and to a lesser extent other countries such as Russia have been quietly buying up all the gold they can get their hands on-China knows that US treasury bills have no real worth and are looking for 'real wealth' as a means of reserves. The scale of this buying is huge and when it comes to light, my bet is the price of gold will soar.

In short, I think gold is still very much tipped to be a bull market and regardless is always a good investment to make if bought in the right proportions to income bearing assets.

FlyingFox · 29 March 2013

Up from the sounds of it....

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/ce...old-than-ever-shouldnt-you-be-too/2013/03/28/

Need to buy some bullion.....

Alvin Purple · 29 March 2013

Gold price - where is it heading?

The accurate answer is: nobody knows.

For every analyst that says it will rise there is another analyst that says it will fall.

Forecasts range from $2000 in 12 months to $5000 in 2 years and one very bullish analyst has forecast even $15000 in 5 years from now. Bearish forecasts range from $1500 to as low as $750 an ounce.

That reminds me of the time when I used to prospect for gold myself. I needed some tools so I went to the hardware store but there were only two shovels left. So the storekeeper said: "Take your pick."

How long is a piece of string?

sreeve · 29 March 2013

Gold price ($USD) continues to move sideways. Some nice support points formed at $1550.

~ Scott

Ann · 3 April 2013

Hi all!

Here I am back again with a very bearish chart for Gold. Way back at the beginning of July 2012 I posted a chart of what appeared to me then to be the beginnings of a bearish Megaphone Top for Gold on this post....

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=2366&page=470&p=715398&viewfull=1#post715398

Now I present to you a fully formed Megaphone Top pattern which is generally regarded as a very bearish pattern and likely to resolve on the downside.

I am using a quarterly chart with end of quarter close only. No fancy bars or candlesticks. Yes candlesticks look pretty and have heaps of information, far more than I want to hear and see in order to chart with the KISS principle.

I believe I am getting a clearer more truthful picture earlier by using this simpler method.

sinner · 3 April 2013

For the record, Bulkowski ranks "Broadening Tops" aka megaphones as 19 out of 21 for upside breakouts and 18 out of 23 for downside breakouts.

http://www.thepatternsite.com/bt.html

Like the broadening bottom, the broadening top is a poor performer, especially in a bull market. The break even failure rate is high and the average rise is meager.

Considering your quartlery chart is still making higher highs and higher lows, I am wondering exactly how is this a bearish megaphone? Wouldn't you expect at least the bottom of the megaphone to actually have lower lows?

Ann · 3 April 2013

sinner said:
For the record, Bulkowski ranks "Broadening Tops" aka megaphones as 19 out of 21 for upside breakouts and 18 out of 23 for downside breakouts.

http://www.thepatternsite.com/bt.html

Considering your quartlery chart is still making higher highs and higher lows, I am wondering exactly how is this a bearish megaphone? Wouldn't you expect at least the bottom of the megaphone to actually have lower lows?

Hi Sinner,

Thanks for taking the time to comment most appreciated. What I have drawn in Bulkowski language is an Ascending Broadening Wedge which he describes as "Megaphone Tilted Up"

He says in discussion..

Price Trend: it can be up or down leading to the pattern.
Shape: Megaphone tilted up.
Trendlines: Both trendlines slope upward. The top one slopes more steeply than the bottom one.
Touchlines: At least three peakes and three valleys should touch their repective trendline.
Volume: Irregular but trends upward 64% of the time. (Sadly I don't have volume to assess this point).
Breakout: Downward 73% of the time.

http://thepatternsite.com/abw.html

There is also what appears to be a forming Head and Shoulders pattern within the 'Megaphone' but I am not sure it will make it to the second shoulder before there is a downward breakout.

However folks as I say...I could always be wrong! Use your own judgement and do your own research.

Kind regards

Ann

young-gun · 4 April 2013

Ann said:
Hi Sinner,

Thanks for taking the time to comment most appreciated. What I have drawn in Bulkowski language is an Ascending Broadening Wedge which he describes as "Megaphone Tilted Up"

He says in discussion..

Price Trend: it can be up or down leading to the pattern.
Shape: Megaphone tilted up.
Trendlines: Both trendlines slope upward. The top one slopes more steeply than the bottom one.
Touchlines: At least three peakes and three valleys should touch their repective trendline.
Volume: Irregular but trends upward 64% of the time. (Sadly I don't have volume to assess this point).
Breakout: Downward 73% of the time.

http://thepatternsite.com/abw.html

There is also what appears to be a forming Head and Shoulders pattern within the 'Megaphone' but I am not sure it will make it to the second shoulder before there is a downward breakout.

However folks as I say...I could always be wrong! Use your own judgement and do your own research.

Kind regards

Ann

Hi Ann,

with gold on its way down, do you have any predictions as to where you think it might find its feet? The more 'good news' that is circulated the faster it appears to slide, being around 16% off highs in aud.

Ann · 4 April 2013

young-gun said:
Hi Ann,

with gold on its way down, do you have any predictions as to where you think it might find its feet? The more 'good news' that is circulated the faster it appears to slide, being around 16% off highs in aud.

Good question Young-Gun,

Let me give you my opinion on a chart. A chart is merely a reflection of the emotions of a group of traders responding to various stimuli....mostly fear and greed but often also boredom. Boredom is when a stock or commodity ranges sideways for a considerable time and is very effective for cleaning out a lot of short term traders, tending to leave behind the genuine long term investors. With me so far? When there is a lack of good consolidation levels you will have a large group of short term traders who will dump their holding at certain levels where they are not prepared to go below. As there have been no quarterly levels of consolidation since 850 to 950 that is where I think a real price strength will hold in a worst case scenario. (chart to follow).

Looking at the weekly chart (not uploaded) 1550 may be a holding level. On the monthly chart (not uploaded) I can see a short period of consolidation of a few months at around 1300 levels and then another short period of consolidation at the 1100 level. These may offer a level of support for a time if the POG continues to fall away.

If gold drops the $USD will rise and that may be more fun for the traders and an enticement to abandon gold as a fun little plaything. There is no loyalty to a falling market.

The other scenario put out by the gold bugs is that there is massive price manipulation going on by 'them'. So maybe 'them' will get together and make total nonsense of what I have just suggested!

Kind regards

Ann

So_Cynical · 4 April 2013

Ann said:
When there is a lack of good consolidation levels you will have a large group of short term traders who will dump their holding at certain levels where they are not prepared to go below. As there have been no quarterly levels of consolidation since 850 to 950 that is where I think a real price strength will hold in a worst case scenario. (chart to follow).

Coincidence that 850 to 950 USD is very close to the world average production price? (my guesstimate)

http://www.minewebaustralia.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=158127&sn=Detail said:
While global gold mine production was at best flat in the first half of 2012, average total cash costs jumped 19% to a new high of $727 per ounce.

Agree that the 850 to 950 range is my WCS, and if it eventuates world Gold production would fall by maybe 20 or 30% as the marginal miners go broke and close down, Good Gold stocks could fall another 60 or 70% ala GFC lows or worse.

Whiskers · 4 April 2013

Ann said:
If gold drops the $USD will rise and that may be more fun for the traders and an enticement to abandon gold as a fun little plaything.

Gold has been too high for too long imo.

Similarly, the USD has been too low for too long (especially v AUD). The US seems to have consolidated their economy and a shift of funds from equities back to more normal inventory and business development levels in the US is due.

Ann · 4 April 2013

Whiskers said:
Gold has been too high for too long imo.

Similarly, the USD has been too low for too long (especially v AUD). The US seems to have consolidated their economy and a shift of funds from equities back to more normal inventory and business development levels in the US is due.

Hi Whiskers,

The Aussie dollar rides on the back of gold...so if POG rises, so too will the $A, if POG falls then so too will the $A. The $US dollar rides on the back of industry.

Clearly now the US markets are back in the 'black' with all time highs, it follows the US employment rate will rise in line with the markets. This will give people more confidence to get back into housing and purchasing all the other requirments for the home.

Uncle Festivus · 6 April 2013

Ann said:
Hi Whiskers,

The Aussie dollar rides on the back of gold...so if POG rises, so too will the $A, if POG falls then so too will the $A. The $US dollar rides on the back of industry.

Or perhaps it's simply due to the fluctuations of the $USD?

Ann said:
Clearly now the US markets are back in the 'black' with all time highs, it follows the US employment rate will rise in line with the markets. This will give people more confidence to get back into housing and purchasing all the other requirments for the home.

Nominal highs at least, funded by leveraged debt no less. I don't think it does 'follow' that 'US employment rate will rise in line with the markets', as so succinctly portrayed by the latest 'worse-than-expected' shocker NFP of 88k.

Uncle Festivus · 6 April 2013

And so it was that I found my way down to China Town to top up my bullion on Thursday, and was greeted with an unusual scene - rationing of entry to ABC Bullion offices. And it wasn't to prevent the weak hands from dumping their holdings, in fact the opposite - everyone was BTFD!

Later that night I wandered into the ABC Bullion 'seminar' - Precious Metals - Why The Bull Market Is Not Over.
The room was packed & I estimate it was a nice little money earner for ABC at least (around $10k or so).
Mostly the usual from the gold bug fraternity - lot's of charts, mostly out dated, with an enthusiastic presentation from Jordan Eliseo, Chief Economist at ABC Bullion, preaching to the converted. I was a little concerned when he didn't know where the Atlantic Ocean was though. Still, a good tax write off and a chance to win some free silver bullion at least.

Mr Z · 9 April 2013

Low in early to mid May? ~ 10th, maybe options expiry on the 28/5... STILL waiting for the final capitulation. Buy in May this year? Big option OI @ 1500 this month and next, with good OI @ 1400 next month. 1500 by the 25/4 looks like target #1, judge from there, 1400-1500 in May? How low does the low go? OI seems to define the options geeks targets quite clearly.

BTW.... 1500 odd is around cost for most of the mines that had a $900 cost just five years ago. It should provide a floor of sorts, even if we go below for a period of time.... otherwise mines are closing, quite a few of them.

zac · 9 April 2013

Mr Z said:
BTW.... 1500 odd is around cost for most of the mines that had a $900 cost just five years ago. It should provide a floor of sorts, even if we go below for a period of time.... otherwise mines are closing, quite a few of them.

Are there any news articles, reports on the closure of mines.
Ive been wondering about this of late, re the low cost of Gold/Silver being so close to production.
I wondered whether stock piling was occuring or mines shutting down.

Mr Z · 9 April 2013

zac said:
Are there any news articles, reports on the closure of mines.
Ive been wondering about this of late, re the low cost of Gold/Silver being so close to production.
I wondered whether stock piling was occuring or mines shutting down.

I'm talking future tense, should gold stay below 1500 for any significant time capacity will be shelved. So far I have not seen anything I would call significant in terms of closures.

explod · 10 April 2013

Gold and silver moving, physical coins running out, big shorts moving to long, Norcini, the best expert near to the trading pits for many years saying go.

The bugs time is back , my silver on this next move over 1 and a half years to be up 550%

So lets stand back and see.

Beware that what I say is opinon and mostly wrong. Monitors here present me as the villiage idiot. and they are mostly correct.

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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