Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[chops_a_must]

Just copping a bath from liquidation in Europe.

Not entirely sure where support is for this.

Could it be that gold equities are leading the spot price?

 

[CanOz]

Just copping a bath from liquidation in Europe.

Not entirely sure where support is for this.

Could it be that gold equities are leading the spot price?

Crude as well, absolute caning. The DX has bounced nicely I'm guessing, had so many data issues tonight I had to give up....

Nice to see some selling again.

CanOz

 

[bigdog]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock...YzBGxhbmcDZW4tVVMEdGVzdANUZXN0X0FGQw--;_ylv=3

Friday April 12 2013

Gold plunged $64 to $1,501 an ounce, reaching its lowest level since July 2011. Prices for other metals including silver and copper also fell sharply.

One trigger for the latest fall was a government report that U.S. wholesale prices declined the most in 10 months in March. Traders tend to sell metals when inflation wanes. They also pushed gold prices lower on reports that Cyprus may sell some of its gold reserves, possibly leading other weak European countries like Italy and Spain to do the same.

 

[Whiskers]

...reports that Cyprus may sell some of its gold reserves, possibly leading other weak European countries like Italy and Spain to do the same.

You would think they should have been doing a bit of selling by now in anticipation of the inevetable correction, but I suppose while they hold hope of writing off large chunks of their debt, they will hold out a bit longer.

 

[CanOz]

That was an absolute hammering, massive long liquidation...but its not like there were no warnings. The USD repeatedly rejected lower prices, that number that came out was well after GC had starting its decline in the Globex session.

The Low of Day is not accurate on the 60 minutes chart, as the session is not complete. Will fix that later, just wanted to show the market profile.

CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Related to GC, the DX has been trending down as well, but the last two sessions refused to break lower, value for the time being has been accepted above 82.00.

Usually you, or in the past you'd see the dollar spike when the market goes risk off with treasuries...Not to be at the moment.

Interesting situation right now with the currencies...

First chart is the USD index, second is the 10 yr, third is the 60 minute DX chart, showing the down trend weakening as value areas are closer together, like a bracket starting.

CanOz

 

[young-gun]

That was an absolute hammering, massive long liquidation...but its not like there were no warnings.

CanOz

In future can you please post such warnings? I bought yesterday ffs. Luckily didn't buy much, will wait to see just how low we can go before I buy again. Could be some bargains for gold coming up in the near future, I thought it was already cheap.

Talking to the bullion dealers they were saying they are having quite a lot of people going through selling in the past couple of weeks, spooked by recent downward price movements. Fingers crossed gold gets massively oversold from here.

 

[CanOz]

In future can you please post such warnings? I bought yesterday ffs. Luckily didn't buy much, will wait to see just how low we can go before I buy again. Could be some bargains for gold coming up in the near future, I thought it was already cheap.

Talking to the bullion dealers they were saying they are having quite a lot of people going through selling in the past couple of weeks, spooked by recent downward price movements. Fingers crossed gold gets massively oversold from here.

I did post something, just trying to find it...

Sorry, i made a comment about the DX (USD index) being at a critical level....not gold specifically, but if you're watching one you got to be watching the others.

The USD is very close to a key level. Not only does this provide a great trading opportunity, but it will obviously impact the other currencies as well as metals and commodities.

For those interested, you can see that price has been clearly rejected at the 82.25 ish level a few times. Now we appear to be rolling over so if we don't find initiative buyers this time then the DX could be in for a substantial decline. Something to keep an eye on.

and on another forum as well:

12th April 2013, 05:28 PM IP

Gold is getting to the magic level again....everyone knows it too....I'm sure there must be some stops down there!!!

support for spot gold seen at $1,525 area with sell stops likely below**Note: The $1,525/oz level had held as support in Sept 2011, Dec 2011 and spring 2012 - Source TradeTheNews.com

CanOz

 

[Trade wind]

I'm not a gold investor, but I just can't help putting in my two cents worth (ooops, I mean, my 0.0000125 ounces worth). Of all the illogical markets in an often illogical investment world, gold is the most difficult to fathom, driven overwhelmingly by sentiment with little or no regard to fundamentals.

Where is gold heading? Who the hell knows, but is it really worth $1500, $1600, $2000 or even $200? Hell no. The main thing that props up the gold price is the antiquated and mistaken belief that gold is the only true safe haven investment in times of economic turmoil. This belief is based largely on the old gold standard, long since buried and rightly so, for it resulted in prolonged and frequent depressions, as countries struggled to adjust their economies under the burden of a single currency, much like present-day Europe is discovering under the Euro.

But this doesn't stop central banks from acquiring gold reserves, nor the cries to return to the gold standard, most notably from fringe economic cultists like the Austrian school, and the gold-nut bloggers. These "fiat currency" ranting survivalists, mostly American, are a fascinating blend of paranoid ammo/food hoarders and precious metal speculators spruiking prices that resemble reality as much as their doomsday predictions of Armageddon.

The gold nuts are the main reason I don't buy gold, for any investment that attracts crazies like that is destined for tears. I think the mini-crash of 2012, and gold's subsequent price struggle, have shaken a lot of them out of the tree, but they are not alone. From respected investment advisors to Indian peasants and hairy chested muzzers, the historical allure and greed for gold persists, though its gloss is slowly fading and unless a technology is found to massivey boost its use a rare industrial metal, long term its price will surely fold more than hold.

Sell gold is my mantra, but what the hell do I know, I'm not a believer.

 

[CanOz]

Lol @ Trade wind...

That's going to wind them up!

Reality for me is that is just another commodity.

....part of the key inter-markets.

CanOz

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Sell gold is my mantra, but what the hell do I know, I'm not a believer.

You forgot the tin foil hat?

"fringe economic cultists like the Austrian school" - when Keynesian economic cultists have served us so well?

Faber on the fall in gold prices:

“I love the markets. I love the fact that gold is finally breaking down. That will offer an excellent buying opportunity.


http://www.bloomberg.com/video/faber-gold-isn-t-down-as-much-as-apple-FJWVsQe2RoKY6uT3ysQyxA.html

 

[explod]

June 2006 to November 2006 - Gold fell from $US 722 to $US 562 - Down $US 160 or 22.2 percent

April 2008 to November 2008 - Gold fell from $US 1005 to $US 705 - Down $US 300 or 29.9 percent

August 2011 to April 2013 - Gold has fallen from $US 1892 to $US 1501 - Down $US 391 or 20.7 percent

Not a big deal really just wish I had a heap of the paper to buy more physical at this level. Figures courtesy "The Privateer Newsletter"

Got a bit excited earlier when the Demons hit the front but out of puff now. Looking for a flag by 2025

 

[young-gun]

I'm not a gold investor, but I just can't help putting in my two cents worth (ooops, I mean, my 0.0000125 ounces worth). Of all the illogical markets in an often illogical investment world, gold is the most difficult to fathom, driven overwhelmingly by sentiment with little or no regard to fundamentals.

Where is gold heading? Who the hell knows, but is it really worth $1500, $1600, $2000 or even $200? Hell no. The main thing that props up the gold price is the antiquated and mistaken belief that gold is the only true safe haven investment in times of economic turmoil. This belief is based largely on the old gold standard, long since buried and rightly so, for it resulted in prolonged and frequent depressions, as countries struggled to adjust their economies under the burden of a single currency, much like present-day Europe is discovering under the Euro.

But this doesn't stop central banks from acquiring gold reserves, nor the cries to return to the gold standard, most notably from fringe economic cultists like the Austrian school, and the gold-nut bloggers. These "fiat currency" ranting survivalists, mostly American, are a fascinating blend of paranoid ammo/food hoarders and precious metal speculators spruiking prices that resemble reality as much as their doomsday predictions of Armageddon.

The gold nuts are the main reason I don't buy gold, for any investment that attracts crazies like that is destined for tears. I think the mini-crash of 2012, and gold's subsequent price struggle, have shaken a lot of them out of the tree, but they are not alone. From respected investment advisors to Indian peasants and hairy chested muzzers, the historical allure and greed for gold persists, though its gloss is slowly fading and unless a technology is found to massivey boost its use a rare industrial metal, long term its price will surely fold more than hold.

Sell gold is my mantra, but what the hell do I know, I'm not a believer.

I have a feeling you will change your tune in the coming years. I think failure to recognise the importance, and the opportunity in gold is a failure to come to terms with the massive flaws in current fiat currency/debt based system. A system that perhaps could work if we didn't have such reckless lunatics at the helm, and a society that wasn't so driven by greed. I'm not saying a gold standard is a way of rectifying all the current issues, as I'm not familiar enough with the ins and outs of a formal gold standard, but I feel the current system ain't gonna last.

You forgot the tin foil hat?

"fringe economic cultists like the Austrian school" - when Keynesian economic cultists have served us so well?

Faber on the fall in gold prices:

“I love the markets. I love the fact that gold is finally breaking down. That will offer an excellent buying opportunity.


http://www.bloomberg.com/video/faber-gold-isn-t-down-as-much-as-apple-FJWVsQe2RoKY6uT3ysQyxA.html

+1

 

[tinhat]

You forgot the tin foil hat?

I don't trade gold but I do trade a tincy bit in the gold miners. I sold all my gold mining stocks for a loss on Friday.

 

[CanOz]

I don't trade gold but I do trade a tincy bit in the gold miners. I sold all my gold mining stocks for a loss on Friday.

Yes! I remember you mentioning that...lol...nice one

 

[AdamVW]

Though its gloss is slowly fading and unless a technology is found to massivey boost its use a rare industrial metal, long term its price will surely fold more than hold.

Trade wind my good man, whilst there are lovers in this world, there will always be a reckless and needless want for gold. It will not fade nor be tarnished, much like gold itself. :1luvu:

 

[nulla nulla]

Interesting in article in Fridays Sydney Morning Herald BusinessDay by Malcolm Maiden. On-line the article is headed "Gold Price is starting to lose its Lustre" however in the aforementioned paper the article was titled "Smart money betting against gold".

http://www.smh.com.au/business/gold-price-starting-to-lose-its-lustre-20130411-2hogg.html

Mr Maiden indicates that the big banks, Goldman, Citigroup and Societe Generale, believe gold has run its time as the world is kicking clear of the global crisis. Further, last week, Goldman Sachs recommended that its clients sell gold in the face of an accelerating down turn. On Thursday Gold was arround US$1,560.00 an ounce and Goldman were predicting the price would drop to US$1,450.00 per ounce by the end of 2013 and would drop further to $1,270.00 by the end of 2014.

Societe Generale are credited with puting a 2013 target of $1,375 per ounce and has the potential to fall a 20-30% from the $1,560 (?) levels.


In another article Mr Maiden describes the exodus from Gold to "safe haven" shares (this helps explain the irrational price climb of some A-REIT's on Friday) with the price dropping $60.00 on friday, with concerns for draft plans for the sale of some of Cyprus gold reserves..

"Gold sank more than 5 per cent on Friday, entering bear-market territory as institutional investors fled bullion in favour of other safe-haven assets amid concerns about central bank sales and souring sentiment."

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...t-territory-20130413-2hruc.html#ixzz2QNeloTDt

It would not surprise me if the likes of Goldman Sachs, having exited their own gold positions and recommended to their clients to get out of gold, that Goldman Sachs are now shorting gold ("Smart money betting against gold"). I imagine the rush for the door by Goldman Sachs clients would have a sudden and noticeable impact on the gold price. Their prediction of $1,450.00 per ounce, before Fridays fall, is now only $30.00 off the mark and 8 months ahead of schedule.

I also find it amazing that the big banks consider that the world is kicking clear of the global financial crisis in the face of all the economic data, bailouts, quantative easing and fiscal cliffs. Talk about irrational exuberance, another bubble forming?

 

[Bintang]

All smells like price manipulation to me but if you have the nerve it could be one of the greatest buying opportunities ever.

 

[explod]

Nulla nulla

In another article Mr Maiden describes the exodus from Gold to "safe haven" shares (this helps explain the irrational price climb of some A-REIT's on Friday) with the price dropping $60.00 on friday, with concerns for draft plans for the sale of some of Cyprus gold reserves..

Amazes me the b/s coming from so called financial adviser/journos. In the bigger scheme the 400 tonnes of cyprus gold is valued in the millions yet the debt problems are in the billions.

Interestingly the US flew the stealth bomber along the border of North Korea to stir the chickens just as the real picture in Cyprus was being realised. From there it did not take long to realise that the paper system and its lack of physical, and then by implication the protection of the US by the PPP, were in big trouble.

The volumes on gold will be interesting this week, and late last, the word is that the demand for physical has never been at such a level. Worth keeping in mind that there are now about 100 paper contracts to an ounce of physical gold, silver is now more than double that. So anyone holding ETF's really hold nothing in my view, when it all blows the game will be over.

Most of my info is from Harvey Organ who is easy to access and puts the basics out there well.

 

[explod]

The following is with very greatful acknowledgement to the "Privateer Newsletter"

And it is with sadness in my view that they report today that the newsletter is closing down after 30 years of excellent financial commentary and in my view education. The website may, they report, continue after a well deserved rest in some way in the future; hopefully.

Anyhoow, back on topic, this is a very good surmation.

Since the beginning of April, there has been a steady drumbeat of major global commercial banks and
investment houses “downgrading” their future Gold price projections. The one from Goldman Sachs on
April 10 was just another one. But it did contain one detail that were missing from the releases from other
financial institutions. Goldman Sachs publicly announced that they had cancelled their “bullish outlook” on
Gold and advised their clients to seriously contemplate selling Gold short in the futures markets.

A glance at the volume for April 12 shows how seriously their clients took this advice. Over the first four
days of the week (including the big dump on April 10), daily volume on the Comex had averaged just under
152,000 contracts. On April 12, the volume was 392,000 contracts. We don’t know how much the Access
markets added to this price action. One (non mainstream) Gold analyst put the situation like this: “Without
Goldman’s very public call to short gold when it was most vulnerable, there is no way gold would have
broken down today.” Indeed, the mainstream financial media was struggling to find a “reason”. Not being
able to unearth one, they fell back on the Cyprus Gold selling tale of two days earlier.

Again, we see modern “financial management” in action. The recipe is simple. Protect the paper “assets”
on the balance sheets of central and commercial banks from REAL markets no matter what. Meanwhile,
use paper claims to Gold (and Silver) to control both the price and the attitude of the public towards them.

http://www.the-privateer.com/