Gold Price - Where is it heading?

CanOz said:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/charnock/nov242006.html

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Thanks for the article! I've got a few questions about it...

Mining stocks diverged from the final gold drop as expected and predicted, larger stocks in particular led the way which is a copy book signal for an upward break out. They also confirmed by additionally rising further with gold once it began to rise again.

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Can someone please explain this and whether this 'copy book signal' has happened a lot?

Interesting note how just a few prime gold assets over here are being “consumed” once they “trip over and skin their knee”. I put it that way because for short-term reasons a company price may get trashed and the sellers come out of the woodwork in abundance, who is buying is what interests me for the medium to long-term. No other than J.P. Morgan just soaked up another $12M of this particular company which happens to have huge gold reserves and even more upside… think about that one and draw your own conclusions. They now own nearly $50M of this particular stock at a very depressed price and I don’t think they are about to reduce this excellent hedge against their global gold exposure.

On the same note, I could go on and on about this however I will spare you all… some of our smaller resource plays with monster resources have other local stellar names on their “substantial holder” lists, one I can think of is being dumped by impatient and or weak hands and yet one of our big banks just increased their parcel by 9M shares to over 43M shares. These big institutions are “in the know” and do their homework; I have noted it over and over. I am going to top up with more of this one at the first opportunity myself.

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Any idea which two companies relate to the above?

A $USD bounce off that 80 support could upset the applecart --- probably confirm Wavepickers Chart ??

Cheers

Gold scared of $650 and running away as the $US climbs back up, but it will probably short lived IMO. Should now find support around $620 ish, but hey, I'm an unemployed bum so what would I know.


After The Correction, Gold At US$700/oz
FN Arena News - December 07 2006

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

It is OK to be bearish the US dollar as practically everybody in the market seems to be on one side of the fence again. Standard and Poor's believes a decline of 5% should be expected for the greenback in the year ahead as Asian central banks will be shifting some of their exposure into other assets and as US interest rates are expected to head lower from mid 2007 onwards.

According to ABN Amro, however, forecasting a weaker US dollar in the year ahead doesn't necessarily have to go hand in hand with expectations of falling US interest rates. ABN Amro maintains the Federal Reserve Bank will raise further towards the end of 2007. But the US dollar is going south nevertheless, the bank argues.

ABN Amro thinks this is likely to provide precious metals with an extra pair of wings next year which should see the likes of gold, silver and platinum perform much better than their industrial peers who should experience downward price pressure because of slowing economic growth.

The broker notes gold has even outperformed the euro throughout 2006. This is seen as further testament to the metal's revived role in the monetary system. Where other experts are calling for a top in the EUR/USD cross next year of up to 1.40, ABN Amro economists believe the dollar/euro could surge as high as 1.45 in 2007. Taking a current euro gold price of EUR485/oz on currency conversion alone this would imply a US$705/oz gold price, or further upside of circa 10%.

ABN Amro's current forecast is that gold bullion will average US$610/oz in 2006 and rise a further 11% to an average US$675/oz in 2007 and 2008. The equity broker does highlight this should be regarded a directional call only because should a US dollar rout eventuate nothing would stop gold from reaching higher.

With OPEC's intention of supporting a US$60-plus oil price and with the US dollar decline firmly on the oil cartel's agenda for next meeting, ABN Amro believes investors and gold enthusiasts should also keep an eye on oil for possible extra support.

Earlier this week, analysts at UBS said they expected the EUR/USD at 1.30 by year end and at 1.33 in three months. Apart from the obvious impact on precious metals and other commodities and assets priced in USD, UBS believes the direction of the US dollar is important for what it leads to in terms of investors' risk appetite.

Any scenario that sees the greenback weakening with little impact on broad risk markets will be generally positive for metals and US dollar denominated assets, the analysts believe.

UBS forecasts gold at US$660/oz by year end and at US$690/oz in three months. This implies the current correction is far from over yet. A point brought forward by market watcher Dennis Gartman as well. UBS expects gold to average US$700/oz in 2007.

Been watching the POG all morning wondering if its going to bounce. HK always seems to follow the US though, you find?

Yeah, usually, unless some key data comes out late or a speach or something.

Ugly day for goldies today. Ouch. Had to come off at some point. It was a pretty quick run to $650, once it pierced $620.

kennas said:

Yeah, usually, unless some key data comes out late or a speach or something.

Ugly day for goldies today. Ouch. Had to come off at some point. It was a pretty quick run to $650, once it pierced $620.

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Expected target for this leg up was between $633-655 as stated in post # 814 (10th Nov) has been acheived (high was $649)

Would label this best as wave C of this contracting sideways move. The bearish wavecount has yet to be invalidated as a break above $676.5(last swing high) has not occured(although in Silver it has been invalidated)

If this last leg up is an impulse then it should find support at approximately $615 and then continue upward. Otherwise a break below $600 would mean a target of $580-590 would give a support for the next upward rally (wave e) of the sideways contracting pattern. Thereafter a very strong move down maybe on the cards


Cheers

wavepicker said:

Expected target for this leg up was between $633-655 as stated in post # 814 (10th Nov) has been acheived (high was $649)

Would label this best as wave C of this contracting sideways move. The bearish wavecount has yet to be invalidated as a break above $676.5(last swing high) has not occured(although in Silver it has been invalidated)

If this last leg up is an impulse then it should find support at approximately $615 and then continue upward. Otherwise a break below $600 would mean a target of $580-590 would give a support for the next upward rally (wave e) of the sideways contracting pattern. Thereafter a very strong move down maybe on the cards


Cheers

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Interesting analysis WP!

Well, looks like the Iranians are ready to dump the dollar.

http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-236/0612095743145955.htm

The Iranian move will be into the Euro, but there will be some buying of gold in Asia as the East and Middle East have different agendas.

On the 4Hr chart I have it as a correction to an impulsive wave...

The following link from the UK is interesting as a view on the future gold price:

http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/ar...c=3hzvcw&cp_v=3311862&cp_id=259&cp_sub_id=128

Couldn't bring up the previouse link

http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?section=Share Tips&article_id=3802757

coyotte said:

Couldn't bring up the previouse link

http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?section=Share Tips&article_id=3802757

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What a strange article. Did you guys read it? All he says is 'the world is going to fall apart', but does not say why or how or anything. Just 'be prepared to die!!!'.

I can fill in the gaps, but this type of article does no good to an informed discussion.

And, does this have anything to do with POG? Only because I imagine when the world implodes, people will be clinging to PMs????

Kennas

this is similar to the late 80s

the gloom merchants were out in force -- just same old trash being recycled
waiting to see a few reprints of the books of that era starting to reappear.


cheers

noirua said:

The following link from the UK is interesting as a view on the future gold price:

http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk/ar...c=3hzvcw&cp_v=3311862&cp_id=259&cp_sub_id=128

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I would sugest to go to www.bulliondesk.com GoldmannSachs has a different view on Gold...your statements re to take profit on Gold...the US $ is weakening and GOLD is on the rise read what the EXPERTS say. GOLD to hit US$750 in 2007...

Noob question here.

Is it actually possible to buy gold (paper value ofcourse) like a share? if so, how?

From what I know you can buy shares in GOLD bullion on the ASX. Code is GOLD.

Cheers,
Mark Krueger

chicken said:

EXPERTS

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LOL

kransky said:

Is it actually possible to buy gold (paper value ofcourse) like a share? if so, how?

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You can also buy Goldcorp call warrants, code ZAUWBA.

Otherwise you can buy certificates from the Perth Mint or use their depository service.

GP

POG -- imho is as usual a real delima !

Two respected EW analysis's on this forum have opposing views
One DN for 2 years
the other UP
this is the problem i have with EW even the best disagree !

Then we Steve Saville on F/A & t/a ---- UP--- BUT LIMITED

On balance UP between now and mid Jan to a max of $us 750
Then a high probability of a long term decline (2yrs)

But the catch 22 --- if POG is up , then the $au should be UP -- hence a declining POG in $au.

just my thoughts atm

cheers