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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Low soonish?

@ mid $1400 level?

& then we attack $2k... mid $2k looks possible.

& then we correct, possibly big time, 50%, 2 years?

& US swings right for a term or two.

& the US shows signs of life.

& dividend paying stocks do well for a bit.

& bonds start to come under some pressure.

With universal QE unfolding and signs of life limited it is not likely to be the end of golds run here and now. There is at least one more decent upleg here. Wait for the gold stocks to get giddy... THEN WORRY!

So go the ramblings of the roofless dictator!

 
aclassic said:
Well where does that leave the rest of us then?

cheers
Click to expand...

We are contributors to the pie in the sky.

Can't see the US$1540 support being breached but could take some time for the upside break. As Z points out, fear and associated flights to the US$ will hold it for awhile yet.
 

It's as good an hypothesis as any?

The problems are structural so this time it is different.

So we just keep playing the game while ever they keep QE'ing? Playing the manipulated indices....

But eventually........the Minsky Moment.

As for global growth, the targets required just to get back to where we were in 2000 are basically impossible, so this is the new order - get used to it?

Actually I'm surprised how resilient the old fiat fractional banking system has shown itself to be - I guess It will just be a bigger crash when it eventually does crash? Only the timing is unknown........a global recession in the next 6 - 8 months anybody?
 
Uncle Festivus said:
Only the timing is unknown........a global recession in the next 6 - 8 months anybody?
Click to expand...

After the US Presidential Election for a rough-en

But after what we have seen the last few years anything is possible till the paper(electronic) system does collapse down to value again.
 
The US election has the potential to be a catalyst, should the republicans get in. There is 2 trillion of stimulus that has essentially been soaked up by the banking system and not been released to "the street" for various reasons. It is floating around the system shoring things up but doing little more than that so far. IF that begins to hit the streets with whatever new found hope the republicans may bring business then it will buy the US a real bounce and we could get a virtuous circle developing for a while. I'm sure it will buy LESS than 2T of real growth, much less, and that it will result in higher cost of living etc in the end, but it could turn the tide for 2-4 years. It is a truly gob smacking amount of potential energy pent up in that system. Yes I know it will ultimately be a destructive thing but between here and there? Around half of the DJI stocks are hitting all time highs, they are telling us something.

Regardless Ben seems poised to once again fight a highish USD and a bout deflation with yet more QE, he is looking for the political cover to do it. The rest of the world has just upped the stakes with new liquidity, amping up the currency race to the bottom. Hard not to see gold respond to that, along with all other risk assets... but after this flush has passed and if the US is looking up then gold could struggle for some time, wet finger in the air a couple of years seems about right. I dunno but I will tell you one thing ---> the market will make sure that most of us are wrong ---> so pick the least loved path and keep an eye on it!

 
I'm not sure of the 'money on the sidelines' argument as what is not being factored in is the 'debt not marked to market' problem? Remember when they changed the accounting rules so that none of the housing debt was marked to market? Now I don't know the numbers but I would assume that the underwater housing loans would comfortably be in excess of the 2T 'credits' just waiting to pounce on........just what would it be deployed in to? Stocks? What is the Dow currently 'pricing in'? That conditions are on par with the last time it was at 13000? To me US equities are overbought on QE & recovery rhetoric and very little hard supporting data, especially when the rest of the world is clearly in recessionary mode & slowing.

The bulls are putting forward that US companies have never had so much cash - but they have never been in so much debt as well - on balance they are all, apart from a handfull, net debtors still.

I think the US has come close to pulling it off except they didn't plan for the rest of the world to collapse around them and undo all the 'good' work.

PS they still need to find $450Billion a year just to pay their interest bill......with interest rates esentially negative...imagine what would happen if they actually got a recovery going and rates started to rise - the USD is already rising, which will begin to affect exports.
 

The thing is it doesn't have to be market to market... that will allow the extent of what I am talking about. Don't forget that lots of this debt is being systematically defaulted on and is being purged from the system. Regardless of how debt is resolved once it is dealt with your are in a position to improve. I am not saying there is no problems left in that arena but it is also not where I see the short term bounce coming from.


Yes stocks will benefit but I am primary talking about street level, the myriad unlisted SME's that make up the bulk of the US.

Uncle Festivus said:
The bulls are putting forward that US companies have never had so much cash - but they have never been in so much debt as well - on balance they are all, apart from a handfull, net debtors still.
Click to expand...

As a whole they have the strongest balance sheets in the US.

Uncle Festivus said:
I think the US has come close to pulling it off except they didn't plan for the rest of the world to collapse around them and undo all the 'good' work.
Click to expand...

You can't pull this off in the long run... it will always eventually fail, all debt will be covered one way or the other, it will cost.

Uncle Festivus said:
PS they still need to find $450Billion a year just to pay their interest bill......with interest rates esentially negative...imagine what would happen if they actually got a recovery going and rates started to rise
Click to expand...

You need to look at what is done in a financial repression... interest rates will be contained as a matter of priority until it is simply not possible to do so anymore. Then you are likely nearer to currency reissuance than the touted hyper inflation.

I am talking about a short term wiggle up provided by a % of the funny money that is floating around the financial system 99% of which has not found its way out to the street. This has been the Feds lament... how do we get people using these funds. All I am saying is that a change of attitude at the top has the potential to spark a SHORT tick up in the real world as a percentage of these funds are put to work. Two to four years is short when you are talking juggernaut size economies, they can run far once a little momentum is generated.

I would also expect, if it where to occur, the breath of the recovery would be narrowish. Certain parts of the US wouldn't necessarily see any improvement.

Their economy still functions... it is still large... there is still opportunity for those that know exactly what they are doing... builders are still building and selling etc etc... have you seen the building stocks? This is not a 100% bad news story!

Uncle Festivus said:
the USD is already rising, which will begin to affect exports.
Click to expand...

One of the major reasons that QE3 is very near... Republicans + yet more new "free" (LOL) cash! DEFLATION will be the cry soon.... but maybe not until September, July may just deliver a good sound jaw boning but that will possibly be enough for the market.

Wall St wants Obama gone, they will likely get what they want in the "best democracy that money can buy!"
 
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently reported speculators increasing their net longs in Gold by over 10% to 136,268. However gold has fallen sharply this week. Not looking good for the bulls out there.
Our firm put a recommendation to short gold last Monday.
 

COT - GOLD - Shorts a gradually unwinding but yeah a recent leg down...this is last weeks.
 

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I hear the Basel peeps are pondering upgrading gold to a tier 1 reserve asset, from the tier 3 it currently lives in as part of Basel III.

So um...what's 1% of current bank reserves = in ounces of gold?

:bazooka:

www.bis.org/publ/bcbs189.pdf

COMEX is nothing but another source of leverage in the gold system and still it's tiny compared to LBMA. Who cares about the gold COT?
 

Closed already?

 
Brace yourselves, the low... if it has not already occurred, is likely in the next 3 weeks. We look to be heading out of the eye of the storm into the second scary bit IMO. On the bright side, if I am correct we can go bargain hunting soonish.

 
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