Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[aclassic]

Yesterday an entire 12 months production of silver was traded and a lot of gold.

What do other ASR's think will happen when this paper trading collapses in on itself and how long do you think it will last?

The facts of the whole thing in my view is an unbeilvable joke and think at times I must be dreaming.

Now those last eight words ought to hit the old Plod in the guts, but who cares.

I heard an interesting interview on Brissy radio last night and wondered how gold fits when the guy talks on BBC about europe seeing bonds as a "safe asset" - not au or ag.

FYI here's a link re BBC interview.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/...rader-interview-that-has-tongues-wagging.html

Statement on BBC News channel interview with trader Alessio Rastani
Date: 27.09.2011

The BBC have today issued the following statement regarding an interview with trader Alessio Rastani on the BBC News channel yesterday (Monday 26 September):

"We've carried out detailed investigations and can't find any evidence to suggest that the interview with Alessio Rastani was a hoax. He is an independent market trader and one of a range of voices we've had on air to talk about the recession."

BBC Press Office

cheers.

 

[Mr Z]

UST V Gold since 2001.

You know just occasionally UST's are better than gold BUT if you have a time frame longer than a couple of months I would say that gold is the safe play.



Short term US paper is now a defacto bank account for hedge funds, flight to cash means a flight to short term government paper. Safety only in the sense that you will get your money back on the due date, the banking system offers no such guarantee these days. So it will be until the market believes that the US is a real default risk.... but if your time frame is longer than the nanoseconds that these funds consider long term then you'd have to conclude gold is doing a much better job as a safe port.

So is copper, silver etc... almost anything tangible.

These people cannot see the forest for the trees and have no vision beyond their next bonus. They are not paid to be good over the wider time frame... much like our pollies they can't see past the next "performance period". So safety? Yeah, kinda, in strange blinkered way... if you think cash is the right call for the very short term then gov bonds it is!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I would envisage the 'short sightedness' to the relative safety of UST's would be a short term negative for gold, especially if the Euro does finally implode on itself? We just had a rehearsal for the main event & gold tanked a bit. And if that chart was of anything else I would short it.

Depends if the net effect of those in the Euro zone swapping their Euro's for physical AU is enough to counter UST strength in the transfer period?

Put it this way, I wouldn't buy in to this rebound just yet as the inertia of the last run unwinds via profit taking, manipulation or (short term) flip into UST's?

Relative waves? If we get a similar retracement the target is around $1300-$1350?

 

[Mr Z]

I can't see that this should play the way 2008 did. It is very different in many respects and is a relatively transparent situation. Everyone knows who is exposed and by how much, add to that the long time line we had had into this, basically they have known that we end up here since Greece first hit the radar. I will be very surprised if contingencies are not planned, I will be surprised if they allow a Lehman equivalent event to take place. There is massive vested interest in preserving the Euro zone! I think that the deal is there all bar the politicking.

Satyajit Das is plumbing for complete chaos... sans that death by monetization, that is my vote.

http://video.ft.com/v/1185437572001/Satyajit-Das-Greece-the-next-Lehman-

This is the bounciest dead cat I have seen!!! Normally it is just the one thud!

http://video.ft.com/v/1185281739001/The-power-of-hope

Can the ECB firewall the PIIGS and shore up the banks?

 

[sinner]

Relative waves? If we get a similar retracement the target is around $1300-$1350?

I prefer to calculate potential retracement using log charts rather than linear, lest I let myself be fooled by visual phenomena that have little to do with actual price action...

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I prefer to calculate potential retracement using log charts rather than linear, lest I let myself be fooled by visual phenomena that have little to do with actual price action...

View attachment 44691
View attachment 44692

Yes, was more to emphasise the 3 major thrust-retrace-consolidate areas and relative strength of each. Also, I did the log thingy yesterday but only the last few years, which would be the last 3rd of your chart??. However, would you still be able to get 3 support slopes from your log chart as well, ie what is your support area(s)?

 

[explod]

James Turk puts up a good argument that cash is trash.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_sep192011.html

And dont you just love the ole buddy Kitco, lead story today "Gold falls as investors turn to US dollar" yet on the chart we see the US dollar falling off the last two days. And that may be interwsting going into this weekend unless someone can come up with a great green shoot revellation. And they probably will.

http://www.traderslog.com/quotes-charts/?sym=DX!&gclid=CID0tIWCoqYCFUaApAodpHmHng

 

[Chalea]

Bearish Head & Shoulders Reversal forming?

Target = $1530 approx.

View attachment 44212

$1532.45 is close enough...will retest it soon!

Fascinating article - "The cruelest month for gold. October, not September, typically bad for gold"

Link

 

[Mr Z]

Fascinating article - "The cruelest month for gold. October, not September, typically bad for gold"

Yeah? Really? Pull up a monthly chart and check the voracity of that claim! Most Octobers in the last decade have closed higher than the open and have not produced a notable low. The down Octobers have been smallish in range and mostly above the Sep low. So WTF? I notice he uses three decades of data... why would you include two decades of bear market data and one of bull market data? I'd be looking at the last ten years since the $250 low if you want a realistic idea of what the end of the year typical holds in store for gold these days.

 

[Chalea]

Yeah? Really? Pull up a monthly chart

Monthly RSI uptrend broken, (to be confirmed).

Price will follow.

Potential long term bearish engulfing candlestick pattern.



corn:

 

[Mr Z]

Really you do that? Get that out of context in reply to a post? Jeeez

Lets just wait until the last candle is complete before we throw and junior ranger T/A at it... eh?

 

[explod]

Here is a table of the most prominent gold stocks of the day listed on the Vancouver Stock Exchange (VSE) The table shows their prices at the close of December 1978, in January 1980 when gold peaked, and the highs reached by each company later in 1980.

As some background, gold hit a correction low of US$104 in August 1976. From there gold rose and hit US$240 in November 1978 before correcting sharply and closing at US$150 in December 1978. Gold soared in 1979 and closed at US$420 before spiking at US$880 in January 1980.

Gold then corrected to US$482 in March before rising to US$711 in September. By this point in time sentiment was extremely bullish, with everyone expecting gold to take out the US$880 peak and then onwards and up upwards through US$1000.

https://mail.google.com/mail/?ui=2&...&th=132b092b17837a74&attid=0.1&disp=inline&zw

Acknowledgements for sending to Steve (Gumbylearner)

 

[Tysonboss1]

By this point in time sentiment was extremely bullish, with everyone expecting gold to take out the US$880 peak and then onwards and up upwards through US$1000.

That sounds very much like whats happening now, Please continue the story, What happened after that, Did it just keep going up like everyone expected.

 

[Mr Z]

That sounds very much like whats happening now,

Only if you completely ignore the differences in the fundamentals, they are chalk and cheese for now, really ---> oh yeah and look at those gold stocks FLY, LOL not! You really didn't give that comment any thought did you?

You are a fool if you.... oh faggitit, you are a one way street.

 

[Mr Z]

Ya see, this is the problem with gold!







Between you and me I'm not so sure her brain is backed by anything!

 

[Tysonboss1]

Only if you completely ignore the differences in the fundamentals,

Different fundamentls, I thought it was just still the same old pretty metal that it has been since time began, Sitting in the same vaults collecting dust.

I suppose their is one difference, the difference is there is much more of it above ground now than back then.

Anyway each to their own.

( P.S as with alot of my posts, My tonge is firmly in my cheek )

 

[Mr Z]

Different fundamentls, I thought it was just still the same old pretty metal that it has been since time began, Sitting in the same vaults collecting dust.

I suppose their is one difference, the difference is there is much more of it above ground now than back then.

Anyway each to their own.

Willful ignorance, I admire your dedication to it, but alas your fishing skills are lacking

 

[Mr Z]

Dr Doug...

... takes the scalpel to the USA.

[video=vimeo;29058918]http://vimeo.com/29058918[/video]

Yikes!

 

[Mr Z]

Central Bank Buying...

Emerging nations up gold reserves

EMERGING market countries are continuing to top up their gold reserves, with Russia, Thailand and Bolivia among those to add to their holdings in August as developing economies continue to diversify away from traditional reserve currencies.

Recently, emerging market central banks have bought gold in reaction to the sovereign debt crises affecting the US dollar and the euro, analysts say. Demand has also risen strongly in recent quarters as some seek to diversify foreign exchange reserves that have grown along with emerging market export industries.

The central bank of Russia, a regular buyer from its own domestic market, continued its long-term program of gold accumulation in August by adding 118,000 troy ounces to its reserves, which now stand at 27.161 million ounces, according to figures from the International Monetary Fund.

Russia's holdings are up more than 7 per cent on the start of 2011.

However, Russia wasn't the only country to acquire gold last month as the price on the spot market soared to record highs before touching $US1920.94 a troy ounce on September 6. There is no indication any central bank buys gold on the spot market.

Thailand continued to boost its reserves, lifting them 300,000 ounces to 4.4 million ounces -- a significant step up from its January holdings of 3.2 million ounces.

More...

 

[Edwood]

I'm not really up with the historic records of central banks when it comes to their ability to time the gold market - do you guys think its a good thing that central banks are buying at these levels? I would've thought they'd be last to the party, bureaucratic, acting when they're 'forced' to as opposed to when it makes good investment sense. Personally I wouldn't be treating this as a good thing for gold longer term