Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[drillinto]

The Gold Vending Machine Is Ready... in China

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20110925000037&cid=1102

$$$$$$$

 

[skyQuake]

This is absolutely not the reason that bonds of various sovereigns are bought. Large market participants are not ones to say "ewww" and I think your claim that they are not participating in (or the direct cause of) this gold bull is pretty silly.

What is cash? Cash is now nothing but a transactional notion. If you give the cash to the bank, for them to "hold it as reserves" they still have to go and buy some debt (bonds) from another (or the central) bank, in effect loaning your so called "cash" out to another entity who has to deploy it in a productive transaction or also go and buy debt with it. From a counter-party risk perspective there is no such thing as cash as you've portrayed it. Aside from the physical stock of coins and notes, there simply isn't a big pile of "cash" somewhere which all those credits and debits net out to someone holding a bunch of the pile. They actually just vanish! So paying off or defaulting on debt has become the same as retiring a portion of the money supply.

To wit, my super has been in "Cash" since August 2008. Yet I am not foolish enough to think these dollars are any measure of "safe". If I could buy gold with the money I would.

Consider the size of the Gold ETF vs mutal funds cash holdings. Even those already holding physical or etf or derivatives of gold. There simply isnt enough participation from their end. Most of the money in there is speculative sloshing around, as you can see from today's carnage.
I am simply saying funds are still considering USD treasuries quality. They have no choice in the matter. eg. 20% invested 80% cash - That cash goes into treasuries/short term bills.

 

[pixel]

A week ago, I saw a vague possibility of Gold to find support at $1580. How time flies! We're there already. And if this level doesn't hold, I guess $1493 might be tested by next week, if not earlier.
One thing is certain: I won't buy bullion just yet...

 

[Wysiwyg]

Any real reason why spot gold price is tanking so straight down like a rock?? I expected a correction but this is overkill.

 

[explod]

Tell me this, the price of gold and silver is falling off the cliff yet you try to buy more on this dip, and apart from an odd coin or bar you really cant' buy any.

For Perth mint it is only established account holders, even then its at a premium and you have to wait sometime for delivery. One would imagine that if it is losing value there must be plenty of it around.

Something has to give soon in my view. Or do I miss something here ?

The comex open will be interesting and its anyones guess.

 

[sinner]

Tell me this, the price of gold and silver is falling off the cliff yet you try to buy more on this dip, and apart from an odd coin or bar you really cant' buy any.

For Perth mint it is only established account holders, even then its at a premium and you have to wait sometime for delivery. One would imagine that if it is losing value there must be plenty of it around.

Something has to give soon in my view. Or do I miss something here ?

The comex open will be interesting and its anyones guess.

Yeah you are missing something, because my bullion dealer which quote the prices on their stock based on live spot has definitely been marking down prices as the day progresses.

Consider the size of the Gold ETF vs mutal funds cash holdings. Even those already holding physical or etf or derivatives of gold. There simply isnt enough participation from their end.

lol so mutual fund participation is an indicator of what now? When the herd of mutual funds finally decide it's time to go long *GOLD* (not GLD) it will be already well after the fact of recognition that going long gold was the correct thing to do.

Most of the money in there is speculative sloshing around, as you can see from today's carnage.

You are so sure of yourself, it's like you've got an inside wire into this market! Oh wait, nope, just another spec. If the price is tanking, and it's the specs who are selling...well...nevermind.

I am simply saying funds are still considering USD treasuries quality. They have no choice in the matter. eg. 20% invested 80% cash - That cash goes into treasuries/short term bills.

Yep alright dude, enjoy. No point arguing this issue for now.

 

[skyQuake]

lol so mutual fund participation is an indicator of what now? When the herd of mutual funds finally decide it's time to go long *GOLD* (not GLD) it will be already well after the fact of recognition that going long gold was the correct thing to do.

was in reference to your comment
"I think your claim that they are not participating in (or the direct cause of) this gold bull is pretty silly. "

You are so sure of yourself, it's like you've got an inside wire into this market! Oh wait, nope, just another spec. If the price is tanking, and it's the specs who are selling...well...nevermind.

Doesn't matter whos selling. Only its continuous, sustained, and eats anything that gets in its way.
Judging from that its from specs who are forced to liquidate or a fund that blew up. No-one else sells like that.

 

[sinner]

was in reference to your comment
"I think your claim that they are not participating in (or the direct cause of) this gold bull is pretty silly. "

LOL mutual funds are not who I was referring to. Lets clarify, I was referring to real money: sovereign wealth funds, CBs, pension funds, etc. You know, real market participants who are actually in the real gold market, taking delivery and storing allocated in a vault. I also assumed this is what you meant, but obviously I was wrong.

Doesn't matter whos selling. Only its continuous, sustained, and eats anything that gets in its way.
Judging from that its from specs who are forced to liquidate or a fund that blew up. No-one else sells like that.

"You are so sure of yourself, it's like you've got an inside wire into this market! Oh wait, nope..."

This thread is dead quiet except for 3 posters day after day, month after month, then a 20% drop in gold and suddenly everyones an expert with an opinion to offer.

Nevermind, I'll leave it to the experts, measuring "mutual fund cash" and chattering about "sloshing specs".

 

[explod]

Yeah you are missing something, because my bullion dealer which quote the prices on their stock based on live spot has definitely been marking down prices as the day progresses.


.

Can you let me know who he is, by pm if you like, so that I can get some.

 

[Mr Z]

Smells like a bottom rapidly approaching.... crapitulation is being bought!

 

[Edwood]

Anywhooooo... back to gold. Ready for a bottom this week? Wanna hang some odds on that idea?

might've just seen your bottom there Mr Z

 

[sinner]

Can you let me know who he is, by pm if you like, so that I can get some.

www.bullionmoney.com.au is my current vendor, happy to post here as they have an ASF account and (in the past) read this thread. So far happy with them in all respects, even if they are slightly more pricey than Ainslie.

AFAIK there is no minimum or maximum order.

 

[Edwood]

lol posts crossed

Solid move down alright, and nice fade away since, but 1400s would look better imo

 

[Mr Z]

lol posts crossed

Solid move down alright, and nice fade away since, but 1400s would look better imo

You are just cheap!

 

[Edwood]

865 would be better still Mr Z, but won't see that just yet

 

[Mr Z]

865 would be better still Mr Z, but won't see that just yet

That sounds like a number that Prechter would come up with! I'm still waiting for his deflationary return to $200. Smart guy but is is hung up the the "gold is a run of the mill commodity" idea.... not so smart.

 

[Edwood]

I don't really know Prechter at all Mr Z so can't comment sorry. $200 is a bit hopeful I would've thought, no doubt it will get there someday but life is short. Better to stick with targets likely to be hit in the next 12 months imo

 

[Buckfont]

www.bullionmoney.com.au is my current vendor, happy to post here as they have an ASF account and (in the past) read this thread. So far happy with them in all respects, even if they are slightly more pricey than Ainslie.

AFAIK there is no minimum or maximum order.

Have bought throught both dealers. Have found there are differing prices with both depending on the day. Ainslie on line has been off line for most of the day. Bullion Money is out of stock on many products.

Tells me there is a rush on PM`s and the stock is becoming harder to get.

 

[sinner]

Have bought throught both dealers. Have found there are differing prices with both depending on the day. Ainslie on line has been off line for most of the day. Bullion Money is out of stock on many products.

Tells me there is a rush on PM`s and the stock is becoming harder to get.

Thanks for your input, in response I went to check the bullionmoney website (admittedly I did not try to place an order with them today or Friday) and it is down!



Hope you've got your phys!

 

[Billyb]

Gold dropped pretty much to the bottom of its it's three year trendline and bounced back up like there's no tomorrow (after all, gold is a hedge against 'no tomorrow'!); that's not a bad sign at all.

However, with all the background weakness, I still personally think gold will go sideways for potentially several weeks or even months, and so I am happy to wait till the volatility dies down a bit before buying on this dip.