Kauri,
Yes, it's had a good run, & I'm not seeing too much excitement tonight, in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see gold fall away a bit & the PPT boys pull their fingers out if it (the Dow) looks like rolling over again?? Gotta get a green day soon for the poor Lemmings....
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which last week lost 698 points, nearly matched that drop in a single session, with Monday marking its worst day since late 2008.
Correction due? $1650? or so...
Gold 4 hourly ............Gold on the 4 hourly ... not one I am looking to trade, at the moment anyway. May be a triangle or even morph into a rectangular type of set-up.
Cheers
.... Kauri
On what basis or facts do you make that statement?
Interesting
1. The commercials are well short on a net basis.
2. OI has been contracting since 1600 indicating that we have a short squeeze on. That will run its course.
3. 1800 represents that top of a technical formation on my weekly chart.
There will be a battle for 1800, lots of new short positions will be put on around here, all things being equal that should induce a correction and 1650 looks like the first likely floor to me.
If this fails to correct here there will be a fast move up as the recent short interest gets taken out. It is a classic setup for the "from failed moves come fast moves" idiom. However until that occurs we have the odds favoring a correction. I would prefer to lose a small amount of heat here, IMO that makes 2K by December more likely.
If we break up look out for a hot move followed by a sharp fall... again not ideal at this point IMO.
The risk to a lot of that would be a full market and bank meltdown which has to be pondered as a possibility now.
IMO this is not a 2008. The 1 year Libor rate is suggesting that there is very little funding stress here. That is in line with the RBA's recent comments. This appears to be driven by other factors.
2008?
The increased debt to real value is now very much worse than 2008. And the RBA in my view merely follow the popular beliefs of Wall Street and Co, as does our Guvmint.
Take note of the statements of these popular press economist and Reserve Bank Chiefs who will talk about next year and the green shoots and all sorts of greater days later on, but you should note they never qualify these statements with, why and how they will, or what will, bring this about.
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