Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Kauri]

The weekly Gold chart from 2003 and the more recent daily chart over the last couple of months have been fairly clear about where Gold HAS been headed. Looking further ahead, the chart and patterns will point the way ... for me anyways.

Cheers
......... Kauri

 

[explod]

For a further direction in gold watch the US dollar. I think it is starting its fall now.

If it does overnight, or does not rise in the face of the fear now sweeping the markets, then gold will continue to go parabolic and silver should start to respond soon too.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Welcome back Kauri - is there much TA in a vertical line??

Looking like getting close to the slingshot - rising US price & falling AU/US dollar rate.

Depends if the Fed is still in control ie try to take down gold like it did silver (margins)??

The worst outcome for gold is if there is just a slow, plodding deflationary recession instead of outright $US debasement? That would mean that the general populace would be just too poor to get in on the gold bull and cause stage 3......

Just hitting $1715 now........

 

[Kauri]

Uncle Festivus

Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?
Welcome back Kauri - is there much TA in a vertical line??

Looking like getting close to the slingshot - rising US price & falling AU/US dollar rate.


Hi Unkle Fess .. TA for my first entry was divergence and a punt on it co incider ing with the base of triangle, the pyramid was another triangle which is more obvious when viewed in 4 hour timeframe. Have tightened stop as divergence may be indicating a " temporary ?? top " and I need some sleep.

Cheers
....................... Kauri
​

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Kauri,
Yes, it's had a good run, & I'm not seeing too much excitement tonight, in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see gold fall away a bit & the PPT boys pull their fingers out if it (the Dow) looks like rolling over again?? Gotta get a green day soon for the poor Lemmings....

 

[Kauri]

Kauri,
Yes, it's had a good run, & I'm not seeing too much excitement tonight, in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see gold fall away a bit & the PPT boys pull their fingers out if it (the Dow) looks like rolling over again?? Gotta get a green day soon for the poor Lemmings....

Lemmings, ah yes ... that was from the last major bout of profit taking now called the GFC ... racking my addled memory that was my way of saying Lehmans without actually saying it in case I wasn't allowed to say it as it might have been seen as spreading rumours .. or something ... irate: sometimes I confuse myself.

Cheers
........... Kauri

 

[Uncle Festivus]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which last week lost 698 points, nearly matched that drop in a single session, with Monday marking its worst day since late 2008.

See, that's what I get from being sorry for them! I think the Fed has lost control. But, gold only went up $20 over the session, topping out at $1720 or so, which is a concern.....getting a bit sticky for everything. Withdrawing some more cash out today.....

 

[iced earth]

Gold : 9 August 2009

The shorter channel has been passed up successfully with the target around $1900 which is coincidence with the upper line of the longer channel



in monthly chart, we see a continues upward pattern which form kind of a bullish channel, the most important resistance of this channel is the upper line which gold could reach it around $1900-$2000

 

[Kauri]

Gold on the 4 hourly ... not one I am looking to trade, at the moment anyway. May be a triangle or even morph into a rectangular type of set-up.

Cheers
.... Kauri

 

[Mr Z]

Correction due? $1650? or so...

 

[explod]

Correction due? $1650? or so...

On what basis or facts do you make that statement?

Interesting

 

[Kauri]

Gold on the 4 hourly ... not one I am looking to trade, at the moment anyway. May be a triangle or even morph into a rectangular type of set-up.

Cheers
.... Kauri

Gold 4 hourly ............
A messy one as it turned out but a goodie non the less.

Cheers
....... Kauri

 

[Mr Z]

On what basis or facts do you make that statement?

Interesting

1. The commercials are well short on a net basis.
2. OI has been contracting since 1600 indicating that we have a short squeeze on. That will run its course.
3. 1800 represents that top of a technical formation on my weekly chart.

There will be a battle for 1800, lots of new short positions will be put on around here, all things being equal that should induce a correction and 1650 looks like the first likely floor to me.

If this fails to correct here there will be a fast move up as the recent short interest gets taken out. It is a classic setup for the "from failed moves come fast moves" idiom. However until that occurs we have the odds favoring a correction. I would prefer to lose a small amount of heat here, IMO that makes 2K by December more likely.

If we break up look out for a hot move followed by a sharp fall... again not ideal at this point IMO.

 

[explod]

1. The commercials are well short on a net basis.
2. OI has been contracting since 1600 indicating that we have a short squeeze on. That will run its course.
3. 1800 represents that top of a technical formation on my weekly chart.

There will be a battle for 1800, lots of new short positions will be put on around here, all things being equal that should induce a correction and 1650 looks like the first likely floor to me.

If this fails to correct here there will be a fast move up as the recent short interest gets taken out. It is a classic setup for the "from failed moves come fast moves" idiom. However until that occurs we have the odds favoring a correction. I would prefer to lose a small amount of heat here, IMO that makes 2K by December more likely.

If we break up look out for a hot move followed by a sharp fall... again not ideal at this point IMO.

Good rationale. I would not pick any direction at this point myself but you may be correct.

Benanke's hold on money rates will continue to erode the dollar and as more faith is lost about the only thing they can turn to will be gold, silver, prime land maybe the food industry and a bit of copper. The risk to a lot of that would be a full market and bank meltdown which has to be pondered as a possibility now. IMHO of course.

 

[Mr Z]

The risk to a lot of that would be a full market and bank meltdown which has to be pondered as a possibility now.

IMO this is not a 2008. The 1 year Libor rate is suggesting that there is very little funding stress here. That is in line with the RBA's recent comments. This appears to be driven by other factors.

 

[explod]

IMO this is not a 2008. The 1 year Libor rate is suggesting that there is very little funding stress here. That is in line with the RBA's recent comments. This appears to be driven by other factors.

2008?

The increased debt to real value is now very much worse than 2008. And the RBA in my view merely follow the popular beliefs of Wall Street and Co, as does our Guvmint.

Take note of the statements of these popular press economist and Reserve Bank Chiefs who will talk about next year and the green shoots and all sorts of greater days later on, but you should note they never qualify these statements with, why and how they will, or what will, bring this about.

 

[Mr Z]

2008?

The increased debt to real value is now very much worse than 2008. And the RBA in my view merely follow the popular beliefs of Wall Street and Co, as does our Guvmint.

Take note of the statements of these popular press economist and Reserve Bank Chiefs who will talk about next year and the green shoots and all sorts of greater days later on, but you should note they never qualify these statements with, why and how they will, or what will, bring this about.

SO WHAT?

This is not a 2008, this is not a credit crunch driven market.

 

[skyQuake]

Looking weak so far with the intraday reversal.
CME raised gold margins so there will be some decent selling tonight

 

[adamim1]

By December Gold should be somewhere between 1800-2000. Its moving very fast and we are still in the historically slow period for gold.

I know David Morgan is recommending (in regards to silver, but also relevant to gold) to make a buy on the 15th of August to positions one self for the yearly rally in September. I'll be taking this advice unless something drastic happens between now and then. But I would expect some pull back before September rally

 

[Mr Z]

IF we see 1650 I would expect strong buying around those levels, from 1670 down really.