Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

no rush

Dont' know about that.

Aussie gold is up AU$100 so far for July.

 

[explod]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...he-Gold-Standard-as-world-order-unravels.html

Whew, in the Daily Telegraph, gold could be going to $5,000 an ounce and silver to $1,000

Noted a lead article on the uses of silver and its growing scarcity in yesterday"s Australian.

I am on board, if you are not its well worth investigating because I believe the time for the gold bugs has now arrived.

Gold closed against the $US this morning at an all time high of 1594, same against the Euro and the pound with the Ausie not far behind.

 

[Glen48]

Word is $1750 by Xmas .. who needs Santa... Not often a chance like this comes along and with Dr Ben, Timmy et al doing all the wrong things stop the economy tanking and doing all the right things to help PM's rise every one should be on it.

 

[explod]

So gold has claimed US$1600, hey is that a big deal?, no it is not

Fiat paper money continues to be printed at exponential rates and gold will go up that way too. Back to that word exponential in a minute.

I have been closely watching the gold price for 10 years now. I was so keen that at first I kept a chart going around my office wall, I would draw each candlestick every morning but on my scale after about 4 years it was hitting the ceiling and anyway internet charts had become very good by then.

As time has gone by I recently become aware that all the way through the 12 month percentage rise was always about the same, roughly 30% per year but up or down by about five points. A month or so back it dropped to about 24%, today it sits at 34%. I look at it most days and can be found at the top left of the Kitco main page.

To me it does not seem that long ago that we hit the 1,000 mark and here we are today at 1,600. A 30% rise over the next 12 months translates to about US$2400 and the following year should conservatively see $3,600 on that basis. There seems to be no fundamental reason on the current economic outlook for this to not continue.

However there are growing signs that the bigger end of town within the investment community are now taking notice and are not wanting to be left behind. This will increase and the rise will begin to go exponential and is described as the second stage of a bull run. Then later on we should see as with the dotcom, every tom dick and harry catching the gold fever and we will hit the third and final stages. We are still a long way from that in my view.

Anyway just my 2 cents

 

[Bullion Money]

So gold has claimed US$1600, hey is that a big deal?, no it is not

Fiat paper money continues to be printed at exponential rates and gold will go up that way too. Back to that word exponential in a minute.

I have been closely watching the gold price for 10 years now. I was so keen that at first I kept a chart going around my office wall, I would draw each candlestick every morning but on my scale after about 4 years it was hitting the ceiling and anyway internet charts had become very good by then.

As time has gone by I recently become aware that all the way through the 12 month percentage rise was always about the same, roughly 30% per year but up or down by about five points. A month or so back it dropped to about 24%, today it sits at 34%. I look at it most days and can be found at the top left of the Kitco main page.

To me it does not seem that long ago that we hit the 1,000 mark and here we are today at 1,600. A 30% rise over the next 12 months translates to about US$2400 and the following year should conservatively see $3,600 on that basis. There seems to be no fundamental reason on the current economic outlook for this to not continue.

However there are growing signs that the bigger end of town within the investment community are now taking notice and are not wanting to be left behind. This will increase and the rise will begin to go exponential and is described as the second stage of a bull run. Then later on we should see as with the dotcom, every tom dick and harry catching the gold fever and we will hit the third and final stages. We are still a long way from that in my view.

Anyway just my 2 cents

Agree with above. The only difference this time will be the challenge to determine when gold is in a bubble. The fiat price its measured in will not suffice rather than the value of the metal....


Anyone see the front page of the AFR today? and just about every 3rd page something about gold...

 

[Ageo]

Just thought id pop in and say hello

Explod remember the only counter argument to the increase in money supply/gold going up argument is that never before have refiners around the world bought a massive amount of scrap which has been refined into bullion. Now if jewellery markets were great then no problem because the bullion would be bought/manufactured into new jewellery and so on, but its not the case.

Tonnes of extra scrap is being refined and casted into bars which only leaves private/institutional and central banks to be buying these bars, so unless there is a similiar demand compared to the supply thats flowing in then obviously the price might not shoot up as much as alot of gold bugs think.

Then of course you have the big players who manipulate supply/demand levels (like diamonds) so in the end no 1 really knows where the price is going.


Just some food for thought

 

[explod]

There is a lot to the story of gold and its intrinsic value. The following recent commentary talks about a Gold Standard. The subject has been on some lips of late but interestingly Gary North in the following article (follow the link) points out well that that would be playing right into the hands of the Keynesian system, and the bankers and Governments who feed off money expansion to the general detriment of the people; in my view. A gold standard sounds good after what we have been witnessing, but it still "keeps drakula in charge of the blood bank", so to speak.


http://lewrockwell.com/north/north1009.html

 

[explod]

Well the gold price break out overnight has certinly told us clearly what the world now thinks of paper money.

With the strong annual seasonal approach ahead of us till the end of the year my take is hold your hats because we are now away with earnest. This in my view is that second stage where the general investment community will now start to sit up too.

Cheers to holders of physical and gold stocks, the train is fianally off.

And for this little ole black duck, go AYN

 

[Frank D]

Gold Report update....

http://goldcoppersilver.blogspot.com/

 

[explod]

Today marks a sad day for the people of America, "Dan Norcinin"

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

Looking at the five day weekly of the Dow, the up lower line trend has been borken and it looks very like the period around October 2007.

However the traders will play hard with the paper gold chart to profit on the volatility, so no one can predict the medium to short term, but the continuing long term up trend will remain intact till some radical action is taken by the world finance machine to bring us back to some reality. But I do not really know that answer.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

And for this little ole black duck, go AYN

Remember to sell your shares before they suspend the market though........I'm only in cash & physical now....

 

[Junior]

Remember to sell your shares before they suspend the market though........I'm only in cash & physical now....

Festivus, can you please elaborate. Which market and why?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Festivus, can you please elaborate. Which market and why?

When the general populace finally work out what's going on, and it turns out to be more than just some cyclic sell-off, then it's a posibility that equity markets will take a big(ger)hit - up to the point where the regulators simply suspend all equities trading. So even if you have gold equities they will be useless coz you won't be able to sell them?? Just my view.....

 

[notting]

Gold Pop

Interesting Gold move this morning in US trading time.
It peaked hard then went negative!! Big reversal sign.
Don't forget people will sell gold to cover margin calls and get stock bargains.
gold could move fast down 20% after a move like that.
currently 1656.

 

[skc]

Re: Gold Pop

Interesting Gold move this morning in US trading time.
It peaked hard then went negative!! Big reversal sign.
Don't forget people will sell gold to cover margin calls and get stock bargains.
gold could move fast down 20% after a move like that.
currently 1656.

I think gold fell last night because the US dollar was up. It's a race to the bottom and the Japs are starting early.

Definitely a big reversal sign and gold shouldn't see a new peak for some time. But in this volatile market, "some time" probably means a few hours

 

[skyQuake]

Re: Gold Pop

I think gold fell last night because the US dollar was up. It's a race to the bottom and the Japs are starting early.

Definitely a big reversal sign and gold shouldn't see a new peak for some time. But in this volatile market, "some time" probably means a few hours

Rumours of CME raising gold margins - CME has yet to deny it

Unsubstantiated, but Gold got smashed right after those rumors started floating.

 

[Dracuu]

In my opinion I think there is further downside left on the US Dollar. With stocks droping, Gold as in the past may be seen as a safe haven. From a technical point of view I can see a top forming on the USD and Gold rallying from here.

However if margins are raised again on Gold then we will no doubt see a momentary drop in price but as in the past this has proven to have little effect over the long term.

 

[lioness]

Can anyone explain to me gold stocks are not heading higher.

In fact most are sideways to negative for the year.

Surely they will catch up in the end as speccy money floods into them.

I bought some early and are still down

 

[skyQuake]

Can anyone explain to me gold stocks are not heading higher.

In fact most are sideways to negative for the year.

Surely they will catch up in the end as speccy money floods into them.

I bought some early and are still down

Because only today has Gold in aussie dollar terms broken its 2009 highs.

 

[explod]

US gold hitting $1690 up $25 on the open.

Aussie gold up $30