Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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nukz said:
Hey Trembling,

I had a look at the gold AUD cfd this morning and it had price spikes again, quite interesting. It appears as though CMC's data is quite crap :p

This is really off topic but do you know any providers that provide CFD's for yuan? it could be vs. USD/AUD i'm not really fussed. If they are simply synthetic products then surely a cfd can be created for yuan vs.aud? :p
Click to expand...
Regarding trading gold (or silver) and yuan, I use OANDA (they are a major forex broker). They have minuscule spreads.
Also, I have been onto the whole "yuan will rise" thing for a while, but for all the talk that it will rise it has done very little.
 
tothemax6 said:
Regarding trading gold (or silver) and yuan, I use OANDA (they are a major forex broker). They have minuscule spreads.
Also, I have been onto the whole "yuan will rise" thing for a while, but for all the talk that it will rise it has done very little.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info Tothemax & Trembling :)

I think the whole yuan play is more a political play rather than a financial play. But then again the Chinese hate to be bossed around by the U.S so who knows how things will play out.
 
Trembling Hand said:
Here you go,

http://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/fund-details-currency.asp?etfid=64
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And your point is????

A website?

How about this TH? They all must be lying right?

Let's start with the fastest growing economy in Europe

Polish Inflation Accelerates to 11-Month High, May Trigger Rate Increase

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-11-month-high-may-trigger-rate-increase.html

Serbian Inflation Hits 22-Month High of 10.3% on Food, Dinar

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...hits-22-month-high-of-10-3-on-food-dinar.html

India's inflation rate accelerates to 8.4 percent

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-14/india-s-inflation-rate-accelerates-to-8-4-percent.html

China Should Tighten ‘Aggressively’ to Cap Inflation, HSBC Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-aggressively-to-cap-inflation-hsbc-says.html

UPDATE 1-Key Euribor rate jumps after ECB inflation warning

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE70D11S20110114

Ethiopia inflation rises to 14.5 pct in December

http://af.reuters.com/article/ethiopiaNews/idAFLDE70D09T20110114

The impact of rising food prices in Brazil

Inflation in Brazil remains on the rise with the projection raised to more than 5.3% for this year.

High inflation is one of the reasons preventing the authorities from lowering interest rates, one of the greatest constraints to the country's growth.

German Inflation Expectations at Nine-Month High as CPI Surges

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...tations-at-nine-month-high-as-cpi-surges.html

U.K. Factory-Gate Inflation Rises Unexpectedly

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703959104576081300093994720.html

China ‘may hike rates again’ to combat rising inflation

http://citywire.co.uk/money/china-may-hike-rates-again-to-combat-rising-inflation/a463073

What's next Trembling Hand?

DISC: I HOLD Au and will continue until the news changes. ;):D

As always though DYOR. Cha-ching
 
GumbyLearner said:
And your point is????

A website?

How about this TH? They all must be lying right?

...................

What's next Trembling Hand?

You come across as such an arrogant self-conceited wind bag maybe you need to get off the net and start your own self-deluded cult.
Click to expand...

I'm answering a question that was directed at me from Nutz about how you trade the Yuan.

I may come across as a arrogant self-conceited wind bag because you can never fault my points of veiw nor facts. That leaves idiots like yourself nothing to do when Gold drops 2% and under performs what you hate other than the drunken personal attacking bullsh!t you have put in your last two post.

Fool.
 
Cmon guys, more facts and less poo throwing please.

And how about some original individual analysis backed up by some quoted stats? Just linking websites doesn't really do it for me.
 
GumbyLearner, TemblingHand,

How 'bout you both go use a punch bag for half an hour, and then remember that people on the internet are not real. This thread is about gold.

Cheers!
 
sinner said:
Last nights move in bonds was big news.

The market basically told Bernanke to sod off?

Higher rates generally do not bode well for gold longs.
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As noted December 8th, looked like the continued bout of higher rates did not bode well for gold longs.

Here to share a little research thought you might enjoy, here is the 20 day correlation of ASX:GOLD and ASX:STW close prices. I wanted to see what it looked like before the flash crash, so I've annotated it like that. But the chart goes from 21st Jan 2010 - Current.
 

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A little bearish in tone, but Chris Vermeulen on 20 Jan is worth reading on this. Some interesting charts too.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/vermeulen/jan202011.html
Panic Selling Hit SP500 Today, Silver and Gold Are Next!

...All of the recent gains vanished in one session. Strong selling volume sessions like this are typically a warning sign that distribution selling is starting to enter the market.

Distribution selling is when the big money players start unloading large positions in anticipation of a market top. They do try to hide it by selling into good news or earnings when the average investors are buying into all the hype of better than expected earnings on the news...

...I feel the precious metals sector will be starting something like this in the near futures, and possibly it has already started as seen in the rising volume on the down days...

...Silver Daily Chart – The Next Wave of Selling?

I look at silver and gold as one… so what I show here is the exact same for gold.

As you can see silver is trading under 3 of its key moving averages and todays bounce was sold into after testing the 14 and 20 period moving averages.

Take a looking at the bottom of the chart and you can see distribution selling volume as the spikes are all down days. If silver breaks below the $28 level then we could easily and quickly see the $26 and maybe even the $24 level.
 
Logique said:
A little bearish in tone, but Chris Vermeulen on 20 Jan is worth reading on this. Some interesting charts too.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/vermeulen/jan202011.html
Panic Selling Hit SP500 Today, Silver and Gold Are Next!

...All of the recent gains vanished in one session. Strong selling volume sessions like this are typically a warning sign that distribution selling is starting to enter the market.

Distribution selling is when the big money players start unloading large positions in anticipation of a market top. They do try to hide it by selling into good news or earnings when the average investors are buying into all the hype of better than expected earnings on the news...

...I feel the precious metals sector will be starting something like this in the near futures, and possibly it has already started as seen in the rising volume on the down days...

...Silver Daily Chart – The Next Wave of Selling?

I look at silver and gold as one… so what I show here is the exact same for gold.

As you can see silver is trading under 3 of its key moving averages and todays bounce was sold into after testing the 14 and 20 period moving averages.

Take a looking at the bottom of the chart and you can see distribution selling volume as the spikes are all down days. If silver breaks below the $28 level then we could easily and quickly see the $26 and maybe even the $24 level.
Click to expand...

Since 2001 these same scenarios have appeared about every 18 months on average.

Gold is different because it is a currency in its own right and has been for 5 thousand years. This statement has been repeated many times since the advent of this thread and I wonder sometime when will the message get through.

Gold has intrinsic value and it cannot be printed into oblivion. Paper money is no more than a promise of a given amount which loses value with inflation, which is again showing signs of looming but in particular with Q/E money printing which is now rampant.

On the action of the techincal charts computer triggers will be hit and it will sell down violently at times and this appears to be one of those times now.

Watch this space for a rise in gold and silver again very soon IMHO
 
explod said:
Gold is different because it is a currency in its own right and has been for 5 thousand years. This statement has been repeated many times since the advent of this thread and I wonder sometime when will the message get through.

Gold has intrinsic value and it cannot be printed into oblivion. Paper money is no more than a promise of a given amount which loses value with inflation, which is again showing signs of looming but in particular with Q/E money printing which is now rampant.
Click to expand...
Yes we know all this. But people can go overboard, right? The effect is not infinite. The issue is "at this stage in the money printing, is the gold worth $1400"? People who piled into gold in 1980 expecting hyperinflation got smashed, and would have had to have waited decades to get a positive return. The information shows that in this situation the US is going to suffer high inflation, but market timing is important.
 
tothemax6 said:
Yes we know all this. But people can go overboard, right? The effect is not infinite. The issue is "at this stage in the money printing, is the gold worth $1400"? People who piled into gold in 1980 expecting hyperinflation got smashed, and would have had to have waited decades to get a positive return. The information shows that in this situation the US is going to suffer high inflation, but market timing is important.
Click to expand...

You can only go with the overall long term trend in a commodity such as gold. A stop loss needs to be set well below normal levels based upon its behaviour. We are not talking of trading here either, like land banking it is about preserving overall equity in a portfolio.

I hold physical for those reasons.

And from 1980 there were plenty of opportunities to recognise that a down trend was in place and to get out with a very good overall profit if you picked it up around 1975
 
explod said:
And from 1980 there were plenty of opportunities to recognise that a down trend was in place and to get out with a very good overall profit if you picked it up around 1975
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What happened to make gold crash back then?

Is this time different and it just keeps going up for ever?
 
kennas said:
Sorry GL, is there an association with POG on that? Can you post comparative charts?
Click to expand...

Well here's gold v us dollar until 2008 not that the US FED funds rates has moved yet and gold certainly should be north of that red line. I suppose if the chinese central bank moves thier lending rate by 300 to 400 basis points over the next 12 months that may effect the value of gold. Either that or they look like getting monstered by inflation anyway.

This is not investment advice

I'm still learning

GL

DYOR
 

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