Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!

Trembling Hand said:

Oh Christ . Its pointless talking to you muppets. For Fark sake he runs a dedicated SHORT fund. He not only was massivively bearish in 07/08 unlike your drop dead cannot make money Schiff he DID make money shorting the wall street yada yada yada.

Thats my point. You have thrown his stuff out of the window without having a clue about his work.

But thats what you get with 8000 odd post of confirmation bias "information".

Now where is Explod??

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I've actually noticed the amout of bears on PM's have increased recently. Your right in that just 6 months ago the gold story was being played everywhere and all sorts of numbers where being predicted.

I always think its abit worrying when you have ATM's being placed in shopping centres that sell gold bars.

For the price of gold to collapse thought woudn't that have to mean a explosion in the price of the USD.

It's possible we are in quite a bubble, i think a important relationship will be the one between gold and oil.

I'm qctually quite open to bears/bulls if we only ever heard people bullish on a particular investment i would say your living in 2008 investing in the Australian property market

Trembling, your a futures guy. What do you see happening? i know you make allot of posts attempting to show your the big man blah blah but you never divulge any information about what you do? I had a look at your blog once it looked quite interesting, how about putting something in your blog about Pm's

Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!

Trembling Hand said:

By the way. I hope his right about half of his 2011 prediction, volatility.

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That much I agree with...!

Reportedly Kass's gold prediction for 2010 was...

4. The price of gold topples. Gold's price plummets to $900 an ounce by the beginning of second quarter 2010. Unhedged, publicly held gold companies report large losses, and the gold sector lies at the bottom of all major sector performers. Hedge fund manager John Paulson abandons his plan to bring a new dedicated gold hedge fund to market.

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Now he'd have cost me plenty if I listened to him in 2009!

Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!

nukz said:

I've actually noticed the amout of bears on PM's have increased recently. Your right in that just 6 months ago the gold story was being played everywhere and all sorts of numbers where being predicted.

I always think its abit worrying when you have ATM's being placed in shopping centres that sell gold bars.

For the price of gold to collapse thought woudn't that have to mean a explosion in the price of the USD.

It's possible we are in quite a bubble, i think a important relationship will be the one between gold and oil.

I'm qctually quite open to bears/bulls if we only ever heard people bullish on a particular investment i would say your living in 2008 investing in the Australian property market

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Looking at the bull and bear cases I find the bears qualify their statements with some economic rationale, the bears do not.

Huge money printing efforts in the US now are even propping up the Dow. The dilution of the dollar alone is sending gold higher and there are no economic signals that say this will stop.

So we have money dilution and as well the inflation adjustments that say gold is still cheap at these levels.

Of course as the US (Wall Street) is very desperate to hold their ponzies together as long as they can they are pumping the media to keep things looking okay and this particularly relates to gold as a higher gold price paints a perception that things are not quite right.

And of course we know are not.

The new trading year will be interesting. I expect gold to remain at these levels till then.

Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!

explod said:

Looking at the bull and bear cases I find the bears qualify their statements with some economic rationale, the bears do not.

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Is the bear a bull or a bear? Which bear is what?

Re: Gold Price

explod said:

Of course as the US (Wall Street) is very desperate to hold their ponzies together as long as they can they are pumping the media to keep things looking okay and this particularly relates to gold as a higher gold price paints a perception that things are not quite right.

And of course we know are not.

The new trading year will be interesting. I expect gold to remain at these levels till then.

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Yes, all is good because the equity markets are going up, see . $5BILLION a day in QE has to be going somewhere?? I notice Rupert Murdocks' outlet's, WSJ and Marketwatch, are cheerleading the 'recovery' with 'good news only - downplay bad news or the facts' headlines and articles via their compliant army of literary clones!

I'm expecting a correction in all markets pretty soon, even gold. That is premised on where US treasuries go and whether China has to re-value their currency to tame rampant inflation. Even if both issues are put on the sideline through rhetoric or respective QE programmes (yes, China has one too, it's just that it is using 'surplus' $USD's!), down the track there either has to be payback to creditors for higher risk via higher global rates or another 'call' on global taxpayers to start paying the debts down?

I don't think either will happen because the global financial system is intrinsically insolvent, if you measure that by avoiding debt pay back by paying with freshly printed money?

Then there's the sideshow of the QE main game - rising everything! Has anyone seen the price of oil lately? Oil up - stock market cheers!! Does it matter that it has just wiped out the effects/benefits of any stimulis that shows up in the GDP?

Does it matter that the GDP figures are a load of garbage too? No, market goes up! Inventory rebuild over, watch the next GDP figure to be 'unexpectedly' worse?

I hope it goes to $900, or whatever figure someone has plucked from their, um, crystal ball, coz I'll be buying!

Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!

nukz said:

Trembling, your a futures guy. What do you see happening? i know you make allot of posts attempting to show your the big man blah blah but you never divulge any information about what you do?

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Oh really? like? Maybe because I have to spend all my time calling the bugs on their "facts". We never get to what I.

What do I see happening? Same as I have said for some time. Gold, not the gold miners but gold, sucks if you're in AUD. It made a break out high nearly 2 years ago and hasn't looked like taking out that high again. So as a general statement it may be in a long term up trend but its hasn't rewarded holders since Jan 09.

If/when it takes out the high we can see how high it pops and you guys can all gloat about how I should of bought the lows. But if I wanted to play the destruction of the USD at this stage I would prefer "other" stuff (oil, china proxy currenceies & equity markets, wheat etc.) or just plain old doing the business that I do every day, trading the swings and round-a-bouts for worthless cash.

Just don't think golds time is here yet.

Mr Z said:

Yeah look... I have been listening to successful guys in denial about gold since 2001 or so. Sure they know their onions in certain areas but they are normally cretins when it comes to gold. There is a bias against gold in the Wall St mind set and that is a fact so you really need to be selective about who you listen too. There are a small number of sane commentators that have got this since the beginning, Kass is not in their number and we typically get one or two Kass's each year telling us it is over for gold...{yawn}.

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Talk about Yawn!! I will say it again. I don't much care for the man the way some here sycophantically praise others that cannot make money. But at least he has a long term record of trading just these type of things. He creamed the housing bubble and wall street melt down then made two very good bullish calls March 09 and July 10. My point was that he is not a total Wall street mug nor an always buy Gold "commentator".

explod said:

And thought T/H that you would certainly know better.

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No you didn't.

Oh another thing I see happening?

Is more and more punters jumping on the Gold wagon talking about their great gold miner pick ups in hindsight . People all of a sudden having a bucket full of PMs from the 08 low although up until 6 months ago they never knew about gold. Blah Blah Blah. etc etc etc.

And of course the usual gold drops "because the shorts are killing the market" thats not fair etc,

We will see a lot more of that next year.

Trembling Hand said:

Oh another thing I see happening?

Is more and more punters jumping on the Gold wagon talking about their great gold miner pick ups in hindsight . People all of a sudden having a bucket full of PMs from the 08 low although up until 6 months ago they never knew about gold. Blah Blah Blah. etc etc etc.

And of course the usual gold drops "because the shorts are killing the market" thats not fair etc,

We will see a lot more of that next year.

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So you obviously do not buy the idea that the US and China are trying to keep precious metals subdued in order, first the US to maintain strength in the US dollar and world currency status, and second, China trying also to hold the US$ together to protect the value of thier massive holdings of them.

I do buy it.

And there are lot of ASR'ers who were onto gold as a sound investment going well back prior to 08. The interest in the gold thread since its inception is a testament to that.

Anyway I do agree that there will be great opportunities to play this market both long and short next year. Increased focus and attention brings with it volatility.

Good to have your interest and input T/H

Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!

explod said:

Looking at the bull and bear cases I find the bears qualify their statements with some economic rationale, the bears do not.

Huge money printing efforts in the US now are even propping up the Dow. The dilution of the dollar alone is sending gold higher and there are no economic signals that say this will stop.

So we have money dilution and as well the inflation adjustments that say gold is still cheap at these levels.

Of course as the US (Wall Street) is very desperate to hold their ponzies together as long as they can they are pumping the media to keep things looking okay and this particularly relates to gold as a higher gold price paints a perception that things are not quite right.

And of course we know are not.

The new trading year will be interesting. I expect gold to remain at these levels till then.

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Really can't agree with that first statement at all explod(I'm assuming you meant bulls in the second part). There is just as much waffle and misinformation that comes out of the bearish camp as the bullish one, as is always the case. IMO you just perceive the bearish camp to have a sounder economic rationale because that's where your own bias is.

Back on topic, my expectation is for prices to fluctuate in the coming year

Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!

professor_frink said:

Really can't agree with that first statement at all explod(I'm assuming you meant bulls in the second part). There is just as much waffle and misinformation that comes out of the bearish camp as the bullish one, as is always the case. IMO you just perceive the bearish camp to have a sounder economic rationale because that's where your own bias is.

Back on topic, my expectation is for prices to fluctuate in the coming year

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The overiding factor is that the Fed is attempting to stimulate by printing more dollars, it is a fact and it is happening.

This is diluting the value of this paper moey in the same way as for example new issues of shares do to a companies share value. (Of course in the latter the money is used usually to add overall value). Whilst that continues it will continue to drive the gold price higher. The bear camp do not adress this issue and it is fundamentally the prime one.

And yes I meant "bulls" in the last part of the first satement.

And very much agree, there is a lot of waffle from both camps but in my view most of the older gold bulls on ASF keep it near to the facts.

It is why it is such a good thread and I get a lot of feedback from people thanking us on here for getting them into thinking about papar money value.

There is trading, investing and there is preservation and bullion investment is a part.

Gold is down a bit overnight but silver holding its own tells me that gold will hold into the new year at these levels.

Re: Gold Price - IT ONLY GOES UP......................ALWAYS!

I must have had a little too much Christmas cheer last night, I don't know why I wandered in here this morning.

I'll leave you guys to your facts.

Merry Christmas all!

Merry Xmas all

wow nice bars!

Great xmas pressie.

China calls on U.S. to sell gold reserves
Baku - APA-ECONOMICS. The U.S. should cut its government spending and sell some gold reserves to balance its budget and fund its recovery, the People’s Daily overseas edition reported, citing Xia Bin, an adviser to the People’s Bank of China, Bloomberg reported.

The U.S. has to resolve its “twin deficits” in the government budget and the current account, Xia was quoted as saying. Three ways that may help the U.S. achieve that target include reducing military expenses, selling part of its gold reserves and relaxing some export limits on technology, he said.
Read on - http://www.en.apa.az/news.php?id=135203

This is quite interesting, i wonder if China is trying to call America's bluff to find out if the U.S truely hold the amount of gold they state they do.

One thing that would be interesting if the U.S did sell gold and China used its U.S treasuries to purchase the gold lol

I found this on another forum that sorta sums it up...

4,000 tonnes x 32,150 ounces (assuming metric tonnes, troy ounces) x $1400 = $180,040,000,000

$180b from the Gold sales.

The US deficit for 2010 alone is expected to be $1.3t.

Ps. TremblingHand i posted the news article correct this time hehe

Trembling Hand said:

Oh another thing I see happening?

Is more and more punters jumping on the Gold wagon talking about their great gold miner pick ups in hindsight . People all of a sudden having a bucket full of PMs from the 08 low although up until 6 months ago they never knew about gold. Blah Blah Blah. etc etc etc.

And of course the usual gold drops "because the shorts are killing the market" thats not fair etc,

We will see a lot more of that next year.

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LOL... yes, toward May. The clatter will be me hitting the exits and getting ready to trade the post apocalypse bounce . Revving up for a sugar high in gold this year. JMO.

Uncle Festivus said:

I'm hoping for a 'crash' in gold. But unlike the crash in the equity markets (early 2011 as debt and insolvency cannot be ignored by Mr Market, who is currently hopelessly wrong and short sighted?) this will be a buying opportunity...........

There's also the issue of rising rates in the US - the Bernanke QE2 Call is getting blown out of the water - even though it's some sort of perverse trade, some people will be tempted to get 5% for 10YR T's, competition for gold short-term?

It will continue to BE, until it isn't?

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You've raised an excellent and mind-boggling point here UF. Thankyou for your thoughts.

I have been thinking about the direction of US Bonds over the break.

I found this analysis. I think there is a lot of merit and what he says.

DYOR

Very interesting, in the great depression, of my Grandfarther's time, bondholders lost everything as governments and busineses went to the wall.

This looks like one of the the last big stunts to take all the dosh away, skin the sheeple through the bond market.

And if you need more gold or silver I would not be awaiting dips, they may come of course but you could be caught short in my view. Silver has led the way to new highs for both gold and silver of late and to me it is close to a breakout on the upside.

We shall see. Interesting headline on Kitco this morning, to the effect:- "Gold price declines on increasing consumer sales"

He he, I purchased two new long sleeved shirts this morning for $10 each.

explod said:

Very interesting, in the great depression, of my Grandfarther's time, bondholders lost everything as governments and busineses went to the wall.

This looks like one of the the last big stunts to take all the dosh away, skin the sheeple through the bond market.

And if you need more gold or silver I would not be awaiting dips, they may come of course but you could be caught short in my view. Silver has led the way to new highs for both gold and silver of late and to me it is close to a breakout on the upside.

We shall see. Interesting headline on Kitco this morning, to the effect:- "Gold price declines on increasing consumer sales"

He he, I purchased two new long sleeved shirts this morning for $10 each.

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What goes up, comes down, ask Croesus.

gg

GumbyLearner said:

You've raised an excellent and mind-boggling point here UF. Thankyou for your thoughts.

I have been thinking about the direction of US Bonds over the break.

I found this analysis. I think there is a lot of merit and what he says.

DYOR

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Yeah look... he is off his nut! The Fed looks at asset prices as a key economic confidence builder. There is no way known they are actively going to foster an environment that would cause a stock market crash... and YES they can continue QE for quite some time before they will be forced to abandon this path. Sure this is inflationary an ultimately destructive but it will buy bounces in the US economy for short periods... IMO the numbers are pointing toward that now and guess what? It would deliver better numbers just about in time for Obama to gain a second term! Yeah I know the Fed is independent hmmmm.

Many the look at the US stock market don't seem to be factoring in the idea that many US stocks are simply an inflation play. Much of the DOW has stocks that earn OS and are not in that bad a shape. I agree that there are better inflation defensive moves and that commodities and related stocks will be the most likely targeted area. I think that over time survivor bias will again pull these types of stocks to the fore in the indexes and that before this is over the major caps will again be energy and resource companies. Point is they are still stocks... so to talk of the stock market in terms of a homogeneous blob is a egregious error, just look at our market over the last 12 months... if it is a growth stock that Asia has an interest in it has been delivering solid returns... elsewhere pickings are slimmer.

Over time this will be inflationary, the USD will move lower BUT it will swing... at times the concern over return of capital will give wings to the bond market despite all the QE etc. If you have to park a few billion in a hurry and you want to be sure it is coming back (mostly LOL) then where else are you going to go but UST's for the moment? This will ebb and flow as Europe works through its debt issues, the US muni market gets more ragged, commodities have hot and cold runs oscillating between inflation and growth fears etc etc. I think the volatility will be the key word going forward.... anyway, don't bury the US just yet! A trillion dollars should buy a bounce in the least... I think it is coming and soonish, it could turn gold on its head for a year or so... we are about due for a big half way break in the gold market IMO FWIW. Not a prediction but we could see a 50% retrace if we get a sugar high this year.

well, credit is due to explod, I was personally disagreed with him over the last few years in regards to Gold, and I sure got it wrong. I didn't believe it would reach the highs it has so well done explod for sticking to your guns.....

at this point if I had to make a call i would say a correction is more likely but that's a rough call from me.