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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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You'd need to run a correlation on decent data set to support that. Aside from 'the' GFC crunch I don't really see it in that chart.
 
Edwood said:
they do align - when volatility increases gold gets dumped
Click to expand...

As MrZ says, we need more data from you to be convinced. What is your time frame ?

I see gold as a backstop (20% being recommended by a lot of advisers) to an overall portfolio. Since 2001 it has gained an average of 17% per year. Except for sitting on the screen 5 days a week, this has been a very good strategy for my family and I.

Gold is and will continue to be on this steady rise as governments continue to spend beyond their means and keep printing paper money to disperse as a stimulas.
 
I sincerely hope all shorts have been covered & guys... don't consider shorting this thing until May 2011. The odds will be stacked against you, I'd rather play chicken with a bullet train.

For a big clue pull up a monthly USDX and have a look, chuck a momentum oscillator on it or try slow stochastic... that is what you are fighting short gold at least for now, while Europe is relatively calm.
 
Can anyone explain this to me?

If you bought physical gold at the beginning of the financial year you would be up about 6% now in US dollars terms yet the AUD is up against the USD about 11% meaning a net loss of about 5% in AUD. However in AUD all gold stocks are up 20% plus. Why are investors not discounting gold stocks for the exchange rate movements?

Thanks for any insights
 

Most of the gold produced is sold in US dollars.

Of course as our dollar becomes stronger then the spending power of our money (and gold) is greater. Is why this week fuel is getting cheaper too.
 
explod said:
as our dollar becomes stronger then the spending power of our money (and gold) is greater.
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Sure spending power goes up but export revenue decreases in real terms. So shouldn't gold miners' stock prices be reflecting less revenue (in AUD terms) and falling?

Thanks
 
ASFASF said:
Sure spending power goes up but export revenue decreases in real terms. So shouldn't gold miners' stock prices be reflecting less revenue (in AUD terms) and falling?

Thanks
Click to expand...

Sheer increase in good sales overcoming that, demand for physical gold outstripping demand and world gold production decreasing as mines are exhausting. Gold is Australia's third largest commodity export earner so very good for us all.

Of course the other thing that hits is gold fever, sentiment. In the gold bull run from 1970 ending with the top in 1980 some aussie gold stocks increased 100 times. Some who remember do not want to miss it this time around.

DYOR
 
Sentiment and speculation must be the drivers as the cost of producing an oz. in AUD is rising and the revenue per oz. in AUD is falling.

I'm a believer in gold btw.

Thanks
 
Actually its Anglogold doing a cap raising to close their hedge book

And its a heck of a hedge book!
 

Big picture .. POG goes up in USD > POG goes up in AUD...a new world record in one currency leads to new world records in others.
~
 

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explod said:
....In the gold bull run from 1970 ending with the top in 1980 some aussie gold stocks increased 100 times. Some who remember do not want to miss it this time around.DYOR
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My hearing must be going...I thought you said 100 times there Explod. But that outcome would be fine by me.

It's funny listening to various media outlets for the latest price of gold, they clearly have little idea of recent history. 'It's weaker' they say, when it was actually stronger. 'Stronger', when it was actually weaker. Or the classic this week, 'gold is softer at 1268/oz'.
 
ASFASF said:
Sure spending power goes up but export revenue decreases in real terms. So shouldn't gold miners' stock prices be reflecting less revenue (in AUD terms) and falling?

Thanks
Click to expand...

If their costs are in USD their profit rises in USD. This happens faster than the AUD clips it back. So it makes sense for certain gold stocks to follow USD Gold. What tends to happen once the rally gets going is the wider public get involved and don't make any distinction between the good and the bad. Make sense...
 

To pick up on Pascoe in the quote above, (my highlighting) is typical of most journo/financial gurus of our time.

For five thousand years gold has been a means of exchange for goods. If you wanted a pig once you had to trade something, perhaps a bag of spuds. Eventually, if you were the local medical man, that was found wanting so gold became the medium as it was rare and it was a tangible good of exchange. That is not the case with paper money, it can be easily printed and when things are tough (like now in the US) the value is diluted by over printing. Just like the issue of new shares, it dilutes the overall value.

Gold will continue to rise whilst we have quatitative easings, stimulus programms and excessive borrowing by governments. It is time that financial journalists faced up to reality IMHO

However I have always had respect for Pascoe and learnt a lot from his commentaries, he is just doing his job and part of that is to maintain the status quo; and I do not think that the popular press would print some of the real truths anyway.

However, I do think down the track that panic is going to be a problem because few understand the real danger that the US Federal Reserve is bringing upon us. Herd sentiment will be the problem and gold as they are seeeing it will overshoot above current expectations IMHO.
 
explod said:
To pick up on Pascoe in the quote above, (my highlighting) is typical of most journo/financial gurus of our time.
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Pascoe isn't even a starter when it comes to gold, he just does not get it at all. To equate gold going up with the end of capitalism is as simplistically naive as it gets. The guy, like some many of his colleagues, has no idea about money, what it is, how and why it works. They get it at a high level but their foundational understanding of money is zip.

10 years Mr Pascoe, compounding at 17%... you find another investment that has done that! :

 
GOLD- WEEKLY CHART:18 SEPT 2010:

Bullish H&S with the target around 1331 $. Also uptrend channel with higher target...
 

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iced earth said:
Bullish H&S with the target around 1331 $. Also uptrend channel with higher target...
Click to expand...
Many thanks for the chart Iced earth. Like Mr Z I've been wondering what to do from here.

Found this article, one of many similar others out there: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wieg_cor/roger_sept132010.html Sept13, 2010 - interesting long term price history charts for gold and silver there.

So we read everything with a critical faculty, and the author is a clear gold bull, but what are we to make of articles like this? And surely we'll see a breather some time?

(My bolds).
 
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