Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

Yeah, too strong for my liking Explod, mostly just on the back of the low USD exchange rate.

That sounds a bit like a gut feel there Whiskers. I do not rust my gut anymore, just go with the flow and tag along whilst it does. Gold and silver are doing just that.

Hoping for a big dip to get back on maybe a bit late too.

And the $US, yes its all about the dollar and paper money. And they have to continue to print more to keep their heads above the water and whilst they do, gold can only continue its rise.

And on the charts, James Turk's take is straight forward and on the money. However there is nothing in this that has not been pointed out by ASF's on this thread many times over the years. And note the rising/increasing upward curve. The angle has a long way to go before we arrive at the steep angle which blew off in 1980. The bullion story is only just getting underway.

http://www.fgmr.com/nothing-scary-about-these-charts.html

 

[Dome]

As soon as I decide to get into Gold it will drop like a lead baloon.

 

[Buckfont]

Came across a mob called Surbiton Gold Reports. Their web page is un responsive so can find no further info. They ask for $440 pa. subscription.

Does anyone have any experience. Just curious.Thanx. Bf

 

[Uncle Festivus]

That sounds a bit like a gut feel there Whiskers. I do not rust my gut anymore, just go with the flow and tag along whilst it does. Gold and silver are doing just that.

Hoping for a big dip to get back on maybe a bit late too.

And the $US, yes its all about the dollar and paper money. And they have to continue to print more to keep their heads above the water and whilst they do, gold can only continue its rise.

And on the charts, James Turk's take is straight forward and on the money. However there is nothing in this that has not been pointed out by ASF's on this thread many times over the years. And note the rising/increasing upward curve. The angle has a long way to go before we arrive at the steep angle which blew off in 1980. The bullion story is only just getting underway.

http://www.fgmr.com/nothing-scary-about-these-charts.html

Hi Explod, good to see you keeping the gold vindication flag flying

Not much noise from the doubters these days!

Although I'm not sure gold is going up for the correct reasons - yet. Currently too aligned to the vagaries of the general stock market - ie the flows of capital to the flavour of the day - and gold is currently on trend so we get the cashed up 'follow the trend' crowd, which is 'normal'. What I'd like to see is a decent equities market pull back (which is imminent - up 200 points on a services report?? yet ignore the manufacturing report last week!!), and a 'flight to safety' into the $US (or $Bernakes as I call them now) and still see gold go up. We haven't had that test yet, and there's still the exit of the trend momentum traders out of gold to contend with.

Going with the flow.........where nothing makes any sense - again.
You can't have a double dip if you never left the first dip!

 

[TabJockey]

You can't have a double dip if you never left the first dip!

Haha. So true.

 

[Southern X]

Well fellas, haven't posted here since around the seasonal time when gold broke out of its short-term down-trend. Now it seems we are watching Au break-out.

Thought it would go up, but realistically, not like this!

What follows is for those here who still have at least one foot still on the ground:

What use are charts when there is NO RESISTANCE?!

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets20101005.html

What are we to use? Fibs? Bollie Bands? Trend-lines? Me, a combination of tea leaves, coffee grounds and chicken entrails, with a nod to ABC's Allan "Look at ME!" Kohler (when that d-head says buy Au, then I'm nervous).

I like the thoughts of monitoring in-take/out-take of precious metals ETFs. Further, I like this opinion (from numerous sources):

Assuming this recent move in no way is the daughter of the mother of all spikes c1979-1980, then I believe this blow off is just that, a blow off. A sharp correction would then be imminent. Its duration would be short. It would provide a gift as far as an entry point, or to reload goes.

Southern X

PS Knew Roger's is a commodity expert, but never knew he was a goldbug. Has he been co-opted by the goldbugs?

PPS Now where did I put my tin foil hat...

 

[electronicmaster]

Well fellas, haven't posted here since around the seasonal time when gold broke out of its short-term down-trend. Now it seems we are watching Au break-out.

Thought it would go up, but realistically, not like this!

What follows is for those here who still have at least one foot still on the ground:

What use are charts when there is NO RESISTANCE?!

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets20101005.html

What are we to use? Fibs? Bollie Bands? Trend-lines? Me, a combination of tea leaves, coffee grounds and chicken entrails, with a nod to ABC's Allan "Look at ME!" Kohler (when that d-head says buy Au, then I'm nervous).

I like the thoughts of monitoring in-take/out-take of precious metals ETFs. Further, I like this opinion (from numerous sources):

Assuming this recent move in no way is the daughter of the mother of all spikes c1979-1980, then I believe this blow off is just that, a blow off. A sharp correction would then be imminent. Its duration would be short. It would provide a gift as far as an entry point, or to reload goes.

Southern X

PS Knew Roger's is a commodity expert, but never knew he was a goldbug. Has he been co-opted by the goldbugs?

PPS Now where did I put my tin foil hat...

Use the Fibs. And use the fundamentals on what is happening around the world today.

We are in a global economic collapse. even if the media says "Every thing is fine and gold is in a Bubble."

The USD is about to become worthless by up to 50% And the rest of the world will devalue their currency (as 25 or so countries already have, in the past two weeks) .

 

[explod]

Well fellas, haven't posted here since around the seasonal time when gold broke out of its short-term down-trend. Now it seems we are watching Au break-out.

You either dont' read or take in the full content of recent posts.

Its all about currencies ole pal. No need for a tin hat either, you will only get help around here.

And David Potts gave it a very big thumbs down a couple of weeks back (two page spread in The Age), which has sent it balistic since.

It seems a journo's job is to try to trip up the mugs. They have no power against the bugs.

 

[Mr Z]

Typically we are due for a correction around this time of year, we are certainly short term overbought enough to warrant one. As for a mid term top I'd not be expecting one until Jan 2011, possibly as late as May. Watch the monthly POG chart Full STO.

 

[Ageo]

Well today i bought @ 1380 and 30seconds later i went to hedge my price and it was 1368 lol. AUD went from .97 - .98 range very quickly.....

Personally im waiting for the AUD retracement to kick in which shouldnt be too far away.

 

[electronicmaster]

Personally im waiting for the AUD retracement to kick in which shouldnt be too far away.

Yea, it will happen, not over night but it will happen.

If it doesn't? They will let the prime minister open her mouth or Chinas Real Estate starts to burst its bubble creating a Banking credit freeze.

No problems

 

[Whiskers]

Yea, it will happen, not over night but it will happen.

If it doesn't? They will let the prime minister to open her mouth or Chinas Real Estate starts to burst its bubble creating a Banking credit freez.

No problems

It just might... a big blowoff top in the making!?

The USD/JPY may be the 'star' to watch... plumeted to 82.23... lowest since about 1995 when it momentarily went sub 80 before a sharp recovery.

 

[explod]

It just might... a big blowoff top in the making!?

Could you give some reasons for that Whiskers and Ageo.

Gold is in a very steady uptrend, reflecting not only US$ devaluation but very much uncertainty in financials across the board. There has never been such widespread currency/debt problems (ever.

The gold chart of the last 60 days does not suggest a blow off top, just a continued steady rise. Team this with current financial fundamentals and in my view gold has only one way to continue till these problems; are first admitted and second something done about them.

 

[explod]

To do a comparison of the current uptrend and its potential we are in new territory so it occurred to me to post up the following two charts so that we may discuss possibilites.

Both of these charts are from the Webpage of "The Privateer" newsletter. I will post full acknowledgements on a final post of three for this present.

What we are looking at here is the uptrend in glod for the two years, 1977/78. I liken this chart to our current situation 2009/10

 

[explod]

1980 was the blow off top but notice the angle in early December of 1979. I contend that we are nowhere near to that now. We may well be in the same position (as distinct from price) as was the case this date (early October) 1979.

The Charts copied with thanks from
The Privateer
http://www.the-privateer.com
capt@the-privateer.com
(reproduced with permission)

 

[Logique]

Nice charts Explod.
Au at 1330 - to me looks just a reversion to established uptrend. Similar action with silver. There are enormous macroeconomic tailwinds for precious metals.

In the background, I think it will only take one catalyst, say a sovereign credit downgrade, or poor economic announcement, or a China slowdown - to trigger a near term technical retracement in world stock markets = both a plus and a minus for prec metals stocks - near term shock for med term gain.

Precious metals bears should check an Ag chart!
With thanks to: http://www.kitcosilver.com/

 

[nukz]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5MVsm2cpc0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=od6-8MizZKE

Interesting video clips, if a gold standard was at all possible gold would have to be revaulued and allot of money would be made.

 

[explod]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5MVsm2cpc0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=od6-8MizZKE

Interesting video clips, if a gold standard was at all possible gold would have to be revaulued and allot of money would be made.

Yes have noted a number of discussions on that aspect over the last couple of years. US$5000 to the ounce would be a minimum number apparently.

Money to be real has to be redeemable in something that is real, the paper today is just an unbacked promise. In the old world a note could not be printed unless an amount of gold with a value equal to the note denomination was put aside against it. Or against the value of a property or other hard asset,, etc.

 

[Ageo]

explod the only reserves i have for a high gold price $2000+ is the jewellery industry.... The higher the gold price the less sales in gold jewellery (as its too expensive) and for countries like India who buy alot of gold jewellery and their jewellery is usually 22kt (supposedly anyway but i wont get into that) it makes it so much harder so inevitably they buy less.... which will effect the overall demand for gold in yrs to come (my personal opinion).....

 

[sinner]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5MVsm2cpc0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=od6-8MizZKE

Interesting video clips, if a gold standard was at all possible gold would have to be revaulued and allot of money would be made.

A lot of money would be made? Don't you mean lost. Gold would simply retain it's purchasing power relative to fiat! No money would be made!

Been a while since I posted on this thread, due the death of a close friend in September I haven't been able to keep up with everything I wanted to post.

Some updates: My small 10 ounce gold short around the 1249 area got taken out, as you can imagine. Not much in the way of losses, it was only a small speculative trade as stated originally.

Still holding longs in ASX:XGD companies of my choice (index of which just topped 8000, bought in 6000ish) and also a long in ASX:CXC CDI accumulated between $19 and $20.

For those who are wondering exactly what caused this latest run in the price of gold, I have my own suspicions:

Here is a quote from well known (to the bugs) gold-bug "ANOTHER" written almost exactly 13 years ago, Oct 09 1997:

One last note: No form of paper wealth will survive the financial crush once the CBs stop selling!

NOTHING!

From http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another1.html (although I am sure that most of the bugs here know ANOTHER, FOA and FOFOA well).

An interesting comment in and of itself, however if you know the context it is quite insightful.

Anyway, what does my suspicion have to do with that quote? Well...it's all to do with the "Central Bank Gold Agreement" which since inception, had Central Banks over the world selling gold into the open market at the average yearly rate of ~390 tonnes.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/central-banks-no-longer-selling-gold-duh-factor-1010

As of the 27th of September this year, CBGA is no longer in effect, in the sense that exactly as ANOTHER stated would occur:

Central Banks are no longer selling gold!

In fact this year, they only sold 6.4 tonnes, compared to the average that is a huuuuge decline. Let's mark it out on a chart:



Central Banks stopped selling gold, and paper became relatively worthless very very quickly. Let's see what happens now. My guess is, right before the **** hits the fan all the holders of COMEX GC longs, GLD, SLV, ASX:GOLD, ASX:ETPMAG, etc will have all their holdings redeemed in cash (as it states in their respective PDS is legal!), HSBC vanishes with the precious metals and everything pops. Canary in the coal mine style, watch for forced redemptions of paper gold in worthless fiat or similar. I believe the COMEX GC contract can be legally redeemed in units of GLD!

ANOTHER reckons what happens next:
Holders in gold miners will pay huge Government enforced tax to be allowed to take profit. Currencies will only be worth the gold their respective countries hold in reserves and underground (as a major producer/exporter Australia is naturally long gold, we should be grateful!). Oil/energy will be extremely expensive in gold terms.

...and the most important one:

As the price of gold increases, supply will dry up proportionally. The higher it goes, the less supply will be available to be sold onto the market. The opposite to all other commodities (even silver).