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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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I'm going to wait till Jamie Drury is hosting a reality TV show called "Prospecting Blitz" before I call it a top.
 
I believe the argument for gold to keep rising is still strong - there's no sound long term economic reasons why the US dollar should strengthen. And Asian growth, if you believe it will continue, should provide great opportunities for Aust resource companies. It's interesting to note that of the 1.6 billion internet users around the globe nearly half are in Asia.
 
cuttlefish said:
Is everyone tipping gold to go higher? Or is everyone believing in the USD in spite of an enormous wealth of evidence to the contrary ... where is the bubble .. where will the dead cat bounce be?
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Well, I had/have three targets for the end of this up leg... 1,098 has passed, 1,151 and 1,189ish. I've got the trigger finger close by looking for weakness around 1,151 especially if the USD doesn't strengthen against the AUD at the same time.
 
Last night a break through overhead resistance... silver also breaking through resistance...

..and yet the biggest unhedged gold miners have not even outperformed the Dow over the past two months! ($HUI:$INDU chart below).

It does seem to back U.F.'s point that gold is just another recovery play at the moment.
 

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Since the 08 October bottom when the HUI hit 160 it has risen near to 200% at 475 The laggards are the Aussie stocks but some strength is now returnign to the good companies. $20 rise in the Aussie gold price overnight in spite of our currency holding will soon change the equation. Of course a lot of investors are still falling for the doubt jawboning of the financial press. Little or no trailing fees etc in gold investing.
 
Well on the physical front gold is going spastic. Refiners have blew their spread out by a fair wack which means movement is probably still going to take place (up or down who knows).

The scrap frenzy is starting to set in. I picked up 7kgs since last week and there is no sign of slowing atm.
 
Interesting development in the last hour or so... AUD gold has gone higher against the trend of falling USD gold. The euro, yen, pound and franc conversion price seems to be wanting to shadow the USD price down.
 
can someone please explain how gold prices and the aussie to US dollar exchange rate interact...in the past 6 months the US gold price has been increasing, the aussie dollar has also risen against the US dollar, but the share price of the ETF GOLD has essentially stayed the same...im sure its really obvious but i havent been able to get my head around how a rising gold price and an increasing aussie dollar is not reflected in an increase SP for GOLD...is gold purchased in US dollars?
 
Yes.

Pretty much every raw material is priced in $US which is why their currency debasement is a world issue.
 
Au gold almost 1260. Its making a run for it.........


There might be a run like last christmas where it ended just after Feb @ 1500Au.

I have seen spreads yesterday to be as much as $60!!!!! for 1 ounce bullion.

Of course people jumping on the bandwagon so merchants are cashing in on it.

I can see a retracement happening soon but i cant see the overall price heading back under 1200Au to be the medium.


Interesting times indeed
 
In my opinion the majority of recent gains have been from the sheeple following the hype. I've just returned from a major shopping centre in which there was a stall paying cash for gold. Surely this is a sign that a correction is due?
 
tehnoob said:
In my opinion the majority of recent gains have been from the sheeple following the hype. I've just returned from a major shopping centre in which there was a stall paying cash for gold. Surely this is a sign that a correction is due?
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What price were they buying at?
 
tehnoob said:
In my opinion the majority of recent gains have been from the sheeple following the hype. I've just returned from a major shopping centre in which there was a stall paying cash for gold. Surely this is a sign that a correction is due?
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The price of gold, sentiment or otherwise has little to do with the Sheeple (man on the street implied) Dealers are indeed out in force (see the signs out everyday) to buy any gold they can get their hands on. Why? because dealers are unable to keep up with investment demand and they know also that it is a safe bet to hold.

However the real factor behind the price of gold rising from US$260 in 1999 to the price today of 1,1550 is because money is losing its value and at the rate they are continuing to print/dilute its value gold will only continue this steady rise. In fact it is looking very likely that this years rise in gold will be the largest of the last 9 years. And though for awhile it has slowed (in fact retreated a great deal 12 months back) due to our rising dollar the Aussie gold price is indeed on the move again dispite this, having risen A$100 over the last month. Inflation across the globe in real terms is now being whispered as a strong possibility soon, our rising interest rates in Aus has rung a starting bell.

Indeed we do have interesting times. If you only have feelings about gold do not look at it till you have done some research on its history and particularly its relationship to currencies. If not you may later miss a golden opportunity.

Just my humble opinion of course.

cheers explod
 

If this is the "real factor" then please explain how gold fell from 850-260 in the first place during the largest inflationary period of the last 200 years?
 
sinner said:
If this is the "real factor" then please explain how gold fell from 850-260 in the first place during the largest inflationary period of the last 200 years?
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It was a period driven by money inflation and now we have the opposite.

The money injections are diluting the real values of intangibles, gold is gold and cannot be diluted, it is the real tangible.

And of course to keep propping the illusion the western central banks sold off most of their big holdings of gold in that period. The great Prime Minister then the Exchequer saw fit to sell most of the UK gold holdings at that pittance of a price and in the long term rob the country of huge amounts of wealth. Our wonderful Mr Costello did the same thing. Now of course with the cupboards bare they can suppress it no longer.
 
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