Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

Whiskers

for those 'blinkered' gold bugs...

I'm watching for the AUD to fall against the USD pretty soon fundamentally, technically it's also indicated because of an ascending wedge, some MACD divergance and a reasonable looking H&S on the hourly, which would bring it back into the .80's.

Well is not looking like that at the moment, US$ index further dropping today in line with the recent trend and gold up US$8.50 today since their close.

The net effect, all other things being equal, should be better returns for our exporters a minimal (comparatively) rise in imports and a strengthening XAO

Yeh, should, not sure of the chances with our economy built on real output and the US GDP 70% consumer spending.

 

[sinner]

From my post on the XAO thread... for those 'blinkered' gold bugs. :

I'm watching for the AUD to fall against the USD pretty soon fundamentally, technically it's also indicated because of an ascending wedge, some MACD divergance and a reasonable looking H&S on the hourly, which would bring it back into the .80's.

I'm also looking for the XAUUSD to peak probably below 1,200 and generally go sideways for some time based on both my alternate counts looking for a corrective wave and the 1.618 mark just above 1,200. A similar scenario with all other metals.

This would also be consistent with the USD firming particularly against the AUD which I think was bought up heavily because we didnlt go into recession and raised interest rates first and likely to pause for a bit while the rest of the world recovers.

The net effect, all other things being equal, should be better returns for our exporters a minimal (comparatively) rise in imports and a strengthening XAO.

Wasn't your original count for an AUDUSD top to be 0.75?

 

[Whiskers]

Wasn't your original count for an AUDUSD top to be 0.75?

I recall I did have something like .75 for a target, maybe nine months ago.

A lot has changed since then, not the least of which has been the stimulus packages. The waters seemed a bit extra uncertain for awhile and cash seemed to run to the best short term gain.

Having said that, always qualified by all other things not seen changing as being equal , I think the rubber bands have pretty much stretched to their limit and about to return to some status quo.

 

[So_Cynical]

USD Gold cracked 1180 a little while ago...its an amazing run and i must say i like it when the shorter's get a spanking, have to admit the chart is looking unsustainable and very toppy....still there's no way im selling yet.

 

[Glen48]

The price of Gold is a true indicator of how the World economy is traveling and there are no signs any where things are improving so sit back and watch it rise and cash in to the best time to be involved in Gold in the history of Gold.
once it get around 3k sit back and take stock.

 

[Edwood]

everyone seems to be very bullish, taken a small short at 1185.4

 

[hitmanlam]

I've tried shorting before the key $1000. It doesn't work because you're going against momentum. Shorts end up covering their own position chasing the price up even further. I believe that the $1200 mark will be hit now. What to do from there? Are u guys going to still be holding at that point? Could it go up any further. I think it is time to take some profit. Thoughts?

 

[hitmanlam]

I'm thinking consolidation at $1200. A fake upward movement forming the head......possibly at $1220, then a reversal. So possible shorting at around the $1220 mark.

 

[explod]

I've tried shorting before the key $1000. It doesn't work because you're going against momentum. Shorts end up covering their own position chasing the price up even further. I believe that the $1200 mark will be hit now. What to do from there? Are u guys going to still be holding at that point? Could it go up any further. I think it is time to take some profit. Thoughts?

For me only when a retracement is evident, follow the trend untill the bend 1200 maybe but on the past technical action, since 2002 this rise should go to 1400 before the next major correction. However as has been a charachteristic the last few months we should expect some concolidation before it moves beyond 1200 With Thanksgiving a move down on Monday, consolidation, then up again from Wednesday

Having said that I am a long term holder of bullion only and trade gold stocks when the indexes are bullish.

Just my take and have often been wrong. Heard on local radio 3AW this morning, that the dollar is being dumped for gold. Some would say that's a sign to sell, I believe the investment community are only now taking some notice of its strength. Gold production is falling and gold is but a tiny percentage of overall investments. India seeking to buy the rest of IMF holdings, you figure.

 

[sinner]

The fun is just beginning

 

[Ageo]

The fun is just beginning

Explain that chart to me Sinner as im a little bamboozled.

 

[sinner]

Explain that chart to me Sinner as im a little bamboozled.

Sorry Ageo, it is the weekly chart of Dow:Gold ratio (or how many dows you can buy with 1 gold). When the ratio is moving up the Dow is outperforming gold, when the ratio is moving down gold is outperforming the Dow.

Historical lows of this ratio around 1-3 (i.e. 1 gold will buy 1 dow) have marked almost all of the previous bear market lows.

As you can see, the ratio looks to be preparing for the next run down. I am not making any calls on either component instrument as the ratio can reach 1 by a number of ways. For example, the dow and gold could tank together (but dow faster than gold), or gold could hold steady here while the dow tanks, or gold could go up dow could go down, it is hard to pick which scenario will occur (until it is happening in real time).

Gold is also finally starting to uptick against other currencies other than the USD which means it is (after almost a year) starting to look good as a possible safe haven from fiat currency. Frankly, I think it would be better to buy real estate at this point than gold!

I have included two other important gold ratios (well important for ME anyway, many people disagree that they hold any importance at all) to highlight the usefulness. I include Gold:Oil and Gold:Silver ratio. I used the Gold:Oil range to predict oil to $60-80 in late Dec 08 when it was running at $30-40.

 

[sinner]

PS: For my current prediction on what will happen to Gold:Oil ratio, please look at a weekly chart of EURGBP, my guess is the formation will be identical.

 

[sinner]

PS: Am I the only one who has been using strong AUD/weak silver situation to be buying up craploads of pre-1946 Aussie coins?

Haven't bought any physical gold in over a year now, in fact I have SOLD some!

 

[explod]

PS: Am I the only one who has been using strong AUD/weak silver situation to be buying up craploads of pre-1946 Aussie coins?

Haven't bought any physical gold in over a year now, in fact I have SOLD some!

No. I go to Wrights, Lonsdale street and buy pure silver coins whenever I have extra cash

 

[sinner]

No. I go to Wrights, Lonsdale street and buy pure silver coins whenever I have extra cash

Thanks for the tip, I might go check it out after work today! What is the going rate on florins/shillings/sixpence?

 

[Whiskers]

PS: Am I the only one who has been using strong AUD/weak silver situation to be buying up craploads of pre-1946 Aussie coins?

Haven't bought any physical gold in over a year now, in fact I have SOLD some!

I got a few including this one, I think is probably silver (I did look it up once, but have forgotten)... not the best collector condition, but I don't think I'll be melting it down for the silver content just yet.

 

[explod]

Thanks for the tip, I might go check it out after work today! What is the going rate on florins/shillings/sixpence?

To clarify, I only buy 1966 round 50 cent coins, 80%silver content, 3 coins make an ounce of silver net. Last lot I brought some months ago for $5.20 propably about $6 now.

We are getting way off topic now guys.

Gold closed at 1191 a jump of about US$30 for the week on the comex against very sceptical jawboning from the press.

cheers explod

 

[Ageo]

Thanks Sinner for the info. You have a good view on the technicals which is always a positive.

As for gold i always top up around Sept/Oct as seasonal markets have shown there is a run upto the xmas period.

Anywayz just to give you an idea on the physical front here are some photos: Click to enlarge

Here is what 100k worth of scrap looks like which i picked up in 2 days. Mixed karats from 22ct all the way through to 9ct.



And a 10oz bar thats worth around 13k compared to 10k in cash. Easy storage plus it appreciates in value over time unlike fiat.

These are some of the pluses why people look at gold sinner from a conservative point of view.



Gold isnt an outperforming investment unlike shares etc... but i believe most people should have a small percentage of their portfolio for wealth protection which is what gold is.

P.S the gold rush is now set in and spreads are blowing out (at refiners) which means high volatility for price movement.

 

[Edwood]

nice little 5 off the high there chaps