Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[vincent191]

I have only ever bought physical gold and have bars buried here and there. gg

gg, I have a lot of space in me backyard, you are welcome to bury some of your gold bars in me backyard.

In a nutshell monetary economics says that if you start printing money willy nilly like what they are currently doing in the USA, you will have more money chasing the same amount of goods and services, thus the price of goods & services will go up (Inflation).

Thus to protect your net worth you would want to buy gold or other commodities that are inflation proof. Gold is fairly liquid, you can sell it and turn that back into cash very readily, it does not take up a lot of space to store and the cost of buying & selling is not prohibitive (unlike real estate). So please go and buy some gold bars and bury them in me backyard for save keeping. It is ok I am not related to Madoff.

N.Kelly

 

[explod]

Silver is finally on the move (not breaking yet but signs are there) which I have found leads the way.

Gold in firm steps since early August is now into its next big up move. Lets refer to the 10 year Kitco Chart:-


If we look at the high it made in early 06, then the next about March 07, we had a move of about US$350 The 10 years chart is clearly making the french curve upwards which we would expect in a firm bull run, as new players start to look towards it the sentiment gains momentum.

So it is time for me to go out on a limb folks, we are moving to US$1500 over the next 6 to 12 months.

 

[Pivotonian]

I have a noobie question about this.

If I believed that the gold price was going up in US dollar terms and wanted to take advantage of it, what are my options (other than investing in gold explorers/producers)?

As far as I can see, the easiest way to get direct exposure to gold is to buy shares in the ETF (ASX:GOLD). However, if the rise in the gold price is driven in large part by devaluation of the US dollar, then its possible that the price in AUD (and therefore the share price of GOLD) is not going to move much at all, no?

 

[WilliamKong]

I have a noobie question about this.

If I believed that the gold price was going up in US dollar terms and wanted to take advantage of it, what are my options (other than investing in gold explorers/producers)?

As far as I can see, the easiest way to get direct exposure to gold is to buy shares in the ETF (ASX:GOLD). However, if the rise in the gold price is driven in large part by devaluation of the US dollar, then its possible that the price in AUD (and therefore the share price of GOLD) is not going to move much at all, no?

You can also buy Gold futures or options or even warrant to get direct exposure to gold. Or you can even buy bullion or ETF for gold (like SPDR).

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I have a noobie question about this.

If I believed that the gold price was going up in US dollar terms and wanted to take advantage of it, what are my options (other than investing in gold explorers/producers)?

As far as I can see, the easiest way to get direct exposure to gold is to buy shares in the ETF (ASX:GOLD). However, if the rise in the gold price is driven in large part by devaluation of the US dollar, then its possible that the price in AUD (and therefore the share price of GOLD) is not going to move much at all, no?

Correct - gold bullion in $AU has flatlined for the last 7 months - a terrible investment.

-------

What the 'inflationists' fail to mention or to take into account is the other side of the ledger - the huge amount of wealth/dollars that have been totally evaporated over the last 2 years, which when compared to the amount 'printed' is greater by several orders?

If newly 'printed' money was infact flooding the system we would not be getting the 'yield competition' from the banks that we are now offered ie the deposit scene is cut throat, with banks falling over each other trying to entice new money in at higher rates.

-------

Right now gold is just another 'good times are back' yield/momentum play, helped by the negative correlation with the USD. It's a worry when gold is in step with the Dow? A 'Bump & Run' reversal pattern???

With the US Fed Gov budget balance hitting a record deficit for October, the US is on track for an even greater deficit this year? So what to do? If they can still attract money to their debt auctions then creditors may demand a better return ie interest rates going up? But that would put pressure on 'the recovery'? The budget deficit is the Jaws of Death for the US, and by extension, the rest of the world?

The China connection is interesting in that if the USD does in fact substantially fail in the near future, then all those who hold them will be stuck with worthless IOU nothings. If China can't exchange them for hard assetts, like our commodities, then Aus will be stuffed too. With Australians with the majority of their assets in 'growth' shares and property, we will be hugely affected. The result - the Aussie dollar tanks, and we get the 'sling-shot' effect - rising US gold price with falling USD/AUD exchange rate - now that will be the real deal!?

 

[CapnBirdseye]

Just thought I'd post a link to the Kitco AUD/USD price graphs. It can be tricky to find.

http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/charts.htm?USD

Hit Australian Dollar... as if I need to tell you.

 

[explod]

Just thought I'd post a link to the Kitco AUD/USD price graphs. It can be tricky to find.

http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/charts.htm?USD

Hit Australian Dollar... as if I need to tell you.

Thanks for posting that chart link, in spite of the rising dollar bringing things down in the recent short term it does tell that over time we are better off with gold than maney in the vault, against the general uncertainty of markets.

 

[GumbyLearner]

This could be bull**** but has anyone heard the rumour about a an "Asian depository" holding gold-coating tungsten bars that weren't weighed or assayed.
Sounds like a repeat of the Ethiopian gold that ended up in South Africa before being discovered as fake.

Is there any merit to this rumour?

 

[OzWaveGuy]

A very quick look at the Gold chart indicates that it appears to be topping. 5 waves up since 1999 looks complete or almost complete. There is a possibility of an extended 5th wave to push more upside. Downside targets would be in the range of 550-700.

A fourth wave triangle that started in March 08 and finished in Aug 09 is an indicator of a upcoming change in trend.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

A very quick look at the Gold chart indicates that it appears to be topping. 5 waves up since 1999 looks complete or almost complete. There is a possibility of an extended 5th wave to push more upside. Downside targets would be in the range of 550-700.

A fourth wave triangle that started in March 08 and finished in Aug 09 is an indicator of a upcoming change in trend.

I'd agree, looking at the charts in the short term it may have some more legs up, and even in to early next year, but long term it is due for a considerable correction.

gg

 

[explod]

I'd agree, looking at the charts in the short term it may have some more legs up, and even in to early next year, but long term it is due for a considerable correction.

gg

Would be keen to have your on that gg. The trend is your friend till the bend, with the money dilution going around and the sentiment building on the higher gold price I am at a loss to see the raionale ??

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Would be keen to have your on that gg. The trend is your friend till the bend, with the money dilution going around and the sentiment building on the higher gold price I am at a loss to see the raionale ??

I suppose I'm a contrarian, so bear that in mind, so if everyone is tipping gold to go higher then everyone can't make a profit, otherwise there would be no losers.

I don't have any good gold charts, this one from kitco.com is a gif image.

From the 400 or so level in Jul05 we are in a wave 5 in EW.

Wave 1 is 400 to 700. Wave 2 is short in time down to 550
Wave 3 is the longest up to 1000 in nothern spring of 2008
Wave 4 is down to 750, last nothern winter.
Wave 5 we are in at present.

So if the correction comes in it could be the start of a wave 2 in a higher time frame, bringing us back down to support resistance at 750.

gg

 

[cuttlefish]

Would be keen to have your on that gg. The trend is your friend till the bend, with the money dilution going around and the sentiment building on the higher gold price I am at a loss to see the raionale ??

Don't worry explod - when there's nobody calling a top thats the time to get worried.

 

[cuttlefish]

I suppose I'm a contrarian, so bear that in mind, so if everyone is tipping gold to go higher then everyone can't make a profit, otherwise there would be no losers.

Is everyone tipping gold to go higher? Or is everyone believing in the USD in spite of an enormous wealth of evidence to the contrary ... where is the bubble .. where will the dead cat bounce be?

 

[cuttlefish]

I've just realised that every time I make bullish comments in this thread gold heads for the floor ... I knew I shouldn't have posted.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I've just realised that every time I make bullish comments in this thread gold heads for the floor ... I knew I shouldn't have posted.

Don't worry cuttle,

Toss a Gold coin, eagle up and its going up , eagle down and its down. As good a way as any with gold.

gg

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Is everyone tipping gold to go higher? Or is everyone believing in the USD in spite of an enormous wealth of evidence to the contrary ... where is the bubble .. where will the dead cat bounce be?

Well it's on the front page of the weekend AFR, so now all we need is there to be a few 'get rich from gold mania' stories on A Current Affair & Today Tonight to know the top is in , followed up by the bleeding heart rip-off stories about people who were sold fake gold bars and lost their house etc etc

Nice head n shoulders forming all the same.......

 

[explod]

Garpal Gumnut


I don't have any good gold charts, this one from kitco.com is a gif image.

From the 400 or so level in Jul05 we are in a wave 5 in EW.

Wave 1 is 400 to 700. Wave 2 is short in time down to 550
Wave 3 is the longest up to 1000 in nothern spring of 2008
Wave 4 is down to 750, last nothern winter.
Wave 5 we are in at present.

Or gg, if you run a line with the eye off the last two peaks we should hit US$1500. But then, I'm just an optimist mixed with gloom and doom.

And I also lament the inability/call it lazy I suppose to learn to trot out good charts with lines on em. Maybe this Christmas I'll get the Grandson to tutor the old black duck up a bit.

Checked out your site gg, when I get myself familiar maybe stir up your pot.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Then again, it's all relative...........to gold. Recovery in the Dow & the US economy - what recovery??? Waiting for the signal............?

 

[explod]

Maybe someone mentioned back a few posts, but Roger Weigand's latest blurb on Kitko is well worth the read. Applies also to the Immenent and Servere Market Correction thread also folks.

the link to his site:-

www.webeatthestreet.com

precious metals and related stocks the only road.