Magdoran said:Hello professor frink,
Yes, the top chart is a Gann chart. While I’d love to answer your question succinctly, this is very difficult to answer in one post. To illustrate the multifaceted nature of Gann interpretations, just do a Google search on the net, and you’ll see what I mean.
There are many approaches to Gann, and this particular chart is using specific techniques - I used a custom Gann square aiming to forecast in both time and price. This particular square is using a time cycle combined with corresponding price increments and “time angles”.
That probably doesn’t mean much since this kind of approach like any is made up of conceptual components. Essentially there are a variety of conflicting approaches (some would say schools of thought) in interpreting Gann.
I suppose the approach I’ve utilised focuses on the pattern, allied with time cycles and squares, although I do occasionally use “true trend lines” and “zero angles”. I’ve also combined this with a Gann revision of Elliott too which adds another dimension. But I’m not a Gann purist in the sense that some people believe anything that Gann said is gospel, on the contrary, I think that any body of knowledge is flawed and can be improved on with revision.
Hence I don’t really use the “square of 9” much, or subscribe to the astrologists/planetary cycle/ephemeris based schools (you’ve seen Yogi’s posts – especially his emphasis on the “bible codes” and Tunnel Through the Air – I just don’t get these at all, but maybe he’s onto something, I just don’t know – Hi Yogi!), although there are some common elements of course, but radically different approaches.
The key idea for me in my interpretation is to find patterns which allow for forecasting outcomes in both time and price, and assessing probabilities. But as you can imagine, while some of the core concepts seem simple, utilising them in practice is another matter. It takes a long time to really integrate all the elements, and you never really stop learning.
I hope this helps a little as a first pass.
Regards
Magdoran
Magdoran said:Hello All
I have received some interesting personal messages on my Gold post. I accept that this is just an interpretation of the limited information I have though chart forecasting. It is possible for a sideways move to occur from here, or even a bullish drive to exceed the current major high. However, I concur with Wavepicker's analysis in this situation.
I probably should have explained my thinking for making such a contrarian call. This is a short term forecast, and does not apply to the longer term projections for Gold of which I am uncertain. I think that there is a reasonable probability for another leg down. My thinking is based on the idea that this is a blow off move, and that time and price have overbalanced.
Of course it’s possible that Gold may skyrocket immediately from here. But with the movements in the US bond market which is in a strong downtrend (although last nights price action saw a strong rally), effectively raising interest rates, coupled with the ongoing FED rate rises, which look in my opinion likely to continue, and the strengthening of the Us dollar in the short term, and with oil poised potentially to run up to test $90 within 3 months, that this may dent the advances in gold for the short term.
Downward moves can “motor up” very quickly, and move on very small volumes before they find support. My suspicion is that we have at least one more test down to wash out the sellers before resumption. Have a look at the pattern of trend in Gold when it has had blow off moves, say back in the late 70’s, and see what it does when it makes vertical styled moves.
Specifically look at the pattern in Jan-March in 1980, and compare it with the current pattern. There could be a retest of the current low, either exceeding it, or making a marginal higher low. From the current price action, I favour a new low.
I think it will find resistance on Tuesday with a target price around 624.25, then pull back from here. If a bearish drive doesn’t eventuate, then I’d favour a sideways basing pattern to eventuate.
Regards
Magdoran
Doesn't anyone feel a little bit evil that bad news is good news for gold? That analysts can celebrate bombings or instability as it is good news for Gold price? It doesn't make me feel good....Profitseeker said:Looks like it is reaction to the bombings in India.
YOUNG_TRADER said:Gold getting smashed down form $675 levels to around $645 and still dropping where will it end?
I'm betting on support at $620/$630
What suprises me is the failure of gold to stay true to its safe haven asset appeal, given the current geo-political tensions, nothing seems to follow fundamentals anymore
Oil Prices Drop on Iran Report
AP - Crude oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel Monday on rumors of moves toward peace in the Middle East and in Iran's nuclear standoff with Western nations.
YOUNG_TRADER said:Gold getting smashed down form $675 levels to around $645 and still dropping where will it end?
I'm betting on support at $620/$630
What suprises me is the failure of gold to stay true to its safe haven asset appeal, given the current geo-political tensions, nothing seems to follow fundamentals anymore
Thor said:Hi all, last week I found your sight and have been reading your posts with interest, and love to see the retracements.
I thought I'd put my two bobs worth in, I'm on LHG with some options, looking for the rally of Gold to take it up.
I would think the demand for gold will be keeping it in an up trend and the drop tonight hit the bottom of the trend line that's it's been following and there is support around that $645 mark, I don't think it will go below this $645 mark, and it won't take long to break todays high of around the $676 ? which is a resistance point, then I'm hoping from there it will lift LHG, it's all my opinion, and I hope I'm right, but even if it goes down to $620, I won't be pulling my hair out yet.
Thor said:Hi all, last week I found your sight and have been reading your posts with interest, and love to see the retracements.
I thought I'd put my two bobs worth in, I'm on LHG with some options, looking for the rally of Gold to take it up.
I would think the demand for gold will be keeping it in an up trend and the drop tonight hit the bottom of the trend line that's it's been following and there is support around that $645 mark, I don't think it will go below this $645 mark, and it won't take long to break todays high of around the $676 ? which is a resistance point, then I'm hoping from there it will lift LHG, it's all my opinion, and I hope I'm right, but even if it goes down to $620, I won't be pulling my hair out yet.
BlueDaze said:Tim Wood discusses the 4 year stock market cycle. Stocks have been struggling and Tim thinks that the 4 year cycle will provide a great buying opportunity by this fall. Tim shares his thoughts on precious metals as well as equities and tells us where he thinks they are headed.
http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/15.07.2006/07.15.06f.mp3
http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/15.07.2006/stream/07.15.06f.m3u
He believes gold will hit a cycle-low in 2009 or 2010. And that the current gold-bull is building a base for the next 9-year gold-upleg.
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