Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Magdoran said:
Hello professor frink,


Yes, the top chart is a Gann chart. While I’d love to answer your question succinctly, this is very difficult to answer in one post. To illustrate the multifaceted nature of Gann interpretations, just do a Google search on the net, and you’ll see what I mean.

There are many approaches to Gann, and this particular chart is using specific techniques - I used a custom Gann square aiming to forecast in both time and price. This particular square is using a time cycle combined with corresponding price increments and “time angles”.

That probably doesn’t mean much since this kind of approach like any is made up of conceptual components. Essentially there are a variety of conflicting approaches (some would say schools of thought) in interpreting Gann.

I suppose the approach I’ve utilised focuses on the pattern, allied with time cycles and squares, although I do occasionally use “true trend lines” and “zero angles”. I’ve also combined this with a Gann revision of Elliott too which adds another dimension. But I’m not a Gann purist in the sense that some people believe anything that Gann said is gospel, on the contrary, I think that any body of knowledge is flawed and can be improved on with revision.

Hence I don’t really use the “square of 9” much, or subscribe to the astrologists/planetary cycle/ephemeris based schools (you’ve seen Yogi’s posts – especially his emphasis on the “bible codes” and Tunnel Through the Air – I just don’t get these at all, but maybe he’s onto something, I just don’t know – Hi Yogi!), although there are some common elements of course, but radically different approaches.

The key idea for me in my interpretation is to find patterns which allow for forecasting outcomes in both time and price, and assessing probabilities. But as you can imagine, while some of the core concepts seem simple, utilising them in practice is another matter. It takes a long time to really integrate all the elements, and you never really stop learning.

I hope this helps a little as a first pass.


Regards


Magdoran


Thanks magdoran, I know I was asking a question that was going to be difficult to answer in one post! I'm aware of how complicated and multifaceted gann can be, and as confusing as your reply was, I should be able to figure out what you were just saying :D
 
Marc Faber: Global Economy Will Slow Down Now

Marc Faber: Global Economy Will Slow Down Now

Excerpts with CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Marc Faber.

Do you think that investors are losing their appetite for risk?

I think what has happened is that the rise in interest rates is symptomatic of relative tightening. I wouldn't call it a tightening in earnest because the rate of inflation is probably somewhat higher than the Fed fund rate in the US. Credit growth actually accelerated in the first quarter of this year in the US very sharply and so we don't have an absolute tightening.

However, liquidity in the world is not growing as rapidly as before and the market started to sell-off from a technically weak position, which is what I would call an impulsive downward move. This may continue for a while and I may add that frequently markets change direction and one doesn't know exactly why they change direction, this may only come to foreground six months hence.

In other words, market can go up and one doesn't know exactly why, but then suddenly six months or a year later you know why, because there was such an improvement. Equally a market can begin to sell off for reasons that we don't know yet exactly, but that will come forward in the future.

So you are basically saying that 'boom markets' need liquidity in order to be sustained and right now with interest rates going up liquidity is going down, so does that mean that possibly we are on the cusp of a bear market?

I wouldn't say that you just need liquidity; you need an acceleration of liquidity growth to sustain a very strong bull market. When liquidity growth slows down you can have a slump.

For example in the Middle East, we had rising oil prices and rising oil production between 2000 and 2005, whereas we still have record oil prices and same oil production. So, in other words there is still plenty of liquidity in the Middle East, but it is not growing as rapidly as before. This implies liquidity is growing at a decelerating rate and so suddenly the markets in the Middle East were down 50%.

I think this is happening throughout the world, and there is relative tightening. There is an absolute tightening in Japan, in the sense the monetary base that doubled between 1999 and 2005 is now contracting.

So now rates are about to go up in Japan? What does it mean, the Yen such a popular choice for carry trade, that is a huge source of liquidity drying up, which do you think will be the first asset classes to tumble?

In this environment, we have to look back at what happened since October 2002, when these bull markets in assets began and we should probably stay away for the time being. Here I am talking about the next 3-6 months and thereafter we will have to review the situation.

So anything that shot up over the past couple of years since 2003, you think now is a good time to get out of?

When markets begin to decline in an impulsive fashion such as we had recently in the US and in other markets, one just doesn't know if it is a correction or is it something more serious, namely a bear market. A correction would be defined by, 'a market that goes up like India to 12,600 and drops to around 9,000 and subsequently in the next 6-12 months makes a new high around 14,000, 15,000,' that would be a correction.

A bear market would be defined as 'an Indian market that went to 12,600, drops to around 9,000, rebounds and then goes down again and doesn't make new highs for the next 6-12 months.' That I would consider a bear market and one doesn't know in the world, whether we are not faced with something more serious.

I would also emphasize that the best time to buy stocks is obviously when the global economic outlook looks disastrous. The best time to sell stocks is when everything is booming such as now.

Because a booming global economy drains money out of the financial markets into real economic activity, namely down payments for condominiums, capacity expansion, building of entire new cities, and so forth. So that is not particularly a good environment for financial assets.

A few years ago you told everybody to buy gold, you were right. Then you went and told everybody to sell gold because it is going to go below $600. Where to from here?

I would like to put this in the context that I think long-term gold is relatively attractive. But obviously like so many other commodities it overshot in just a speculative pinch when it went to $720 recently. Now that money has relatively tightened and that interest rates have gone up somewhat and the US dollar has stabilised, I think that the gold price obviously had the declined to around $530 and now it has rebounded to $580. I think it can go back to around $485.20.

Then I will definitely be a buyer of gold through the longer-term. I wouldn't necessarily sell my own gold positions because I hold them as kind of an insurance policy against irresponsible central bankers that sooner or later will print money.

They can tighten for a while now and try to gain credibility but I think in the case of the US in the long run the Federal Reserve will essentially increase the supply and the quantity of money. That will lead to essentially a higher gold price over time. Not to mention the Asian central banks that have a very low exposure to gold. They will over time I suppose also increase the portion of their reserves that they will hold in gold.

How serious do you think investors should take the recent break that we have seen in commodity prices in general?

We had more than 20 years of a bear market in commodities that ended between 1999 and 2001, then essentially 5 years into bull market for commodities. I think a significant correction was overdue. You shouldn't forget that the price of copper for instance went from 60 cents a pound to over $4 a pound in 4 years.

So you can have a significant correction. I would like to add that for instance in the last great bull market for commodities, wheat, corn and sugar already peaked out in 73 and thereafter although other commodities went up, these commodities didn't make a new high.

My view is that the global economy now will slow down and that you shouldn't be in industrial commodities, since they are now more vulnerable.

Gold on the other hand is not an industrial commodity, it is much a currency, as a commodity it is jewellery. It would seem to me that in this environment we will face first tightening and then money printing. Gold will be relatively resilient having also risen much less than say the price of oil or price of nickel and copper over the last couple of years.

Why is copper seen as a proxy for largecap resource stocks?

Basically copper is a proxy for industrial production and the proxy for the incremental demand that has come from China. It has some other peculiarities. There are some supply constraints in the copper industry; it is very difficult to find new copper mines and to bring them on stream and so forth. If we look at copper the question obviously would be for an investor to either buy physical copper or also in the case of gold to either buy physical gold or to either buy mining shares in that produced copper or produced gold.

I would only buy gold and copper mining shares that own the reserves in politically very stable country such as Canada, Australia, the United States and even with some reluctance for the simple reason that globally we have a move in countries that have resources such as Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, even Mongolia to tax mining companies much more heavily.

In other words it is very difficult to justify for Freeport, if I come over to earn billions of dollars and the worker at Grasper in Indonesia, they earn their $80 a month. So the local people want a bigger stake in their resources, which is absolutely normal, and in my opinion quite fair.

So the mining companies may actually not realize the expected profits in the future whereas the physical if they are supply constrains or disruptions because local people would choose to say block the shipments of copper then you could have a rise in the physical price of a commodity. But not in the rise in the share prices of that commodity.

How will gold, the dollar and gold mining stocks fare over the medium and near-term?

Basically, we had this big bull market in gold 2001 onwards and we have recently gone to as high as $720, and the correction is now underway. I think this correction is not quite over yet and I wouldn't be surprised to see gold between $480 and $550.

However, in the long run gold will outperform US financial assets and since year 2000 the Dow Jones has lost half its value compared to gold. The US dollar has lost more than half its value against gold and I think that trend will continue, so if the question is how do you maintain your purchasing power then I think it is quite a desirable investment to hold some gold.

I don't think gold will go down to where some observers predict that the deflation is that it will drop to $250. If gold is $250 then the whole world will collapse.
 
Magdoran said:
Hello All


I have received some interesting personal messages on my Gold post. I accept that this is just an interpretation of the limited information I have though chart forecasting. It is possible for a sideways move to occur from here, or even a bullish drive to exceed the current major high. However, I concur with Wavepicker's analysis in this situation.

I probably should have explained my thinking for making such a contrarian call. This is a short term forecast, and does not apply to the longer term projections for Gold of which I am uncertain. I think that there is a reasonable probability for another leg down. My thinking is based on the idea that this is a blow off move, and that time and price have overbalanced.

Of course it’s possible that Gold may skyrocket immediately from here. But with the movements in the US bond market which is in a strong downtrend (although last nights price action saw a strong rally), effectively raising interest rates, coupled with the ongoing FED rate rises, which look in my opinion likely to continue, and the strengthening of the Us dollar in the short term, and with oil poised potentially to run up to test $90 within 3 months, that this may dent the advances in gold for the short term.

Downward moves can “motor up” very quickly, and move on very small volumes before they find support. My suspicion is that we have at least one more test down to wash out the sellers before resumption. Have a look at the pattern of trend in Gold when it has had blow off moves, say back in the late 70’s, and see what it does when it makes vertical styled moves.

Specifically look at the pattern in Jan-March in 1980, and compare it with the current pattern. There could be a retest of the current low, either exceeding it, or making a marginal higher low. From the current price action, I favour a new low.

I think it will find resistance on Tuesday with a target price around 624.25, then pull back from here. If a bearish drive doesn’t eventuate, then I’d favour a sideways basing pattern to eventuate.


Regards


Magdoran



Hello Magdoran,

From what I can see this short term forecast may work out OK. This upward rally looks like being just a technical correction. Price has rallied to our target zone of $615-$650 as expected some weeks ago. Three waves unfold against the one larger trend. The one larger trend in this case appears to be down. (Even though the very long term trend is still upward in my opinion) I would expect prices to go into a "sideways consolidation" between now and putting in another low at a later stage(perhaps 1 year away or longer) before this correction is well and truly finished.

For now, by your time factor analysis we have reached a critical juncture. The only question that remains is: will prices rally upward a little further before turning down again? At present I have labelled blue wave Y to have parity in terms of length with wave X. Giving us a target of $630 which has just been reached. This current level and 50% of the range down of $636 should be a strong cluster of resistance. Only a close above the 3/4 level(0.75) @ $684 would invalidate this scenario to a more bullish one (Refer chart below.)

A month ago I posted a chart on this thread with my long term opinion on gold. Have re posted this for your info. It most likely won't play out to script!! But this is my opinion at a probable pattern in the longer term based on EW theory that I have previously observed. I am sticking to the ultimate longer term $490 target(50% of the range of the bull cycle) as previously stated for this correction to finish. However it may go as low as $450 as that is where the span of the previous 4th wave lies and a common area where correction finish. Will have to look at that when the time approaches

I would expect the larger bear trend to continue across the metals and even in the XAO. Only a close above 5195pts would change my mind to a more bullish case and invalidate my highest probable scenarios in the All Ordinaries.

Cheers

*- I am not qualified to give financial advice- any comments stated regarding the probabilities of financial market movements are purely personal opinions and observations. Any charts posted are for educational purposes only for intersted parties. It should be recognized that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
 

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Clearly the time projection did not stop the bullish move.

The probability of a bullish resumption is now obviously higher.

The charts tell the story.

If there is a pull back from here, a higher low could give a bullish signal, but the key resistance as suggested by wavepicker is still in contention. The ¼ mark is still a level that needs to be broken…

Next weeks price action will give more clues, but the current pattern is not conforming to what I was expecting for a short trade currently, although I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a pull back from here.

If the projected pattern would have occurred, a sharp pullback had a good probability. Now, there are too many buyers in evidence for a panic move down. Also, the pull back in the US dollar and the recent upward movement in US bonds (lowering the effective interest rate yield) is helping the bullish movement in Gold currently.


Magdoran
 

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Still a bit off my $740 trigger point for my warrant. Gee did l get the timing wrong a few months ago.
 
Its funny but on its previous ride up I saw $540, $620, $720 as key resistance levels, once up and through the change in polarity insured that $620 and $540 became support levels if they were ever tested,


Well when the downswing came, $620 didn't hold but $540 did!!!!!, I was worried when $620 didn't hold as I thought, hmmmm its going to have to consolidate around $620 before it moves up again,

I think the $620 consoldiation is over and we may see an attack on previous resistance level of $720, note reaching $725 was not IMO enough to assert a break out, it has to get at least $10 above and hold for a few days!


Anyway $720 here we come, next target after that is $840
 
Maybe a spike, but still heading generally UP!

0204 GMT [Dow Jones] Gold continues to draw support from India terror attacks; spot up $1.50 from NY close at $643.15/oz despite firmer USD, as Tokyo most active tracks sharp overnight gains up Y54 at Y2,391/gram, approaching Y60 limit; weaker JPY adding to buying cues. Market may give up some of $10-plus lift in coming weeks, as terror tensions ease, USD gains, says ScotiaMocatta H.K.'s Alastair McIntyre; but views event as spike in context of recently resumed uptrend, with anticipated sharp USD losses in northern Hemisphere summer making return to $675 likely, before run back to mid-May high $730 around October.(JAD)

:D
 
Profitseeker said:
Looks like it is reaction to the bombings in India.
Doesn't anyone feel a little bit evil that bad news is good news for gold? That analysts can celebrate bombings or instability as it is good news for Gold price? It doesn't make me feel good.... :mad:
 
Gold getting smashed down form $675 levels to around $645 and still dropping where will it end?


I'm betting on support at $620/$630

What suprises me is the failure of gold to stay true to its safe haven asset appeal, given the current geo-political tensions, nothing seems to follow fundamentals anymore :confused: :confused: :confused:
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
Gold getting smashed down form $675 levels to around $645 and still dropping where will it end?


I'm betting on support at $620/$630

What suprises me is the failure of gold to stay true to its safe haven asset appeal, given the current geo-political tensions, nothing seems to follow fundamentals anymore :confused: :confused: :confused:

hehe maybe this

Oil Prices Drop on Iran Report
AP - Crude oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel Monday on rumors of moves toward peace in the Middle East and in Iran's nuclear standoff with Western nations.

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/finh...biz.yahoo.com/ap/060717/oil_prices.html?.v=10

thx

MS
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
Gold getting smashed down form $675 levels to around $645 and still dropping where will it end?


I'm betting on support at $620/$630

What suprises me is the failure of gold to stay true to its safe haven asset appeal, given the current geo-political tensions, nothing seems to follow fundamentals anymore :confused: :confused: :confused:


The question is if this is the level wavepicker sees for another leg down. It hit the 1/3 retracement line on Friday... Or is this where we get the higher low and it flies past the recent top? Will have to see the close when I get up tomorrow...
 

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Hi all, last week I found your sight and have been reading your posts with interest, and love to see the retracements.
I thought I'd put my two bobs worth in, I'm on LHG with some options, looking for the rally of Gold to take it up.
I would think the demand for gold will be keeping it in an up trend and the drop tonight hit the bottom of the trend line that's it's been following and there is support around that $645 mark, I don't think it will go below this $645 mark, and it won't take long to break todays high of around the $676 ? which is a resistance point, then I'm hoping from there it will lift LHG, it's all my opinion, and I hope I'm right, but even if it goes down to $620, I won't be pulling my hair out yet.
 
Thor said:
Hi all, last week I found your sight and have been reading your posts with interest, and love to see the retracements.
I thought I'd put my two bobs worth in, I'm on LHG with some options, looking for the rally of Gold to take it up.
I would think the demand for gold will be keeping it in an up trend and the drop tonight hit the bottom of the trend line that's it's been following and there is support around that $645 mark, I don't think it will go below this $645 mark, and it won't take long to break todays high of around the $676 ? which is a resistance point, then I'm hoping from there it will lift LHG, it's all my opinion, and I hope I'm right, but even if it goes down to $620, I won't be pulling my hair out yet.

Hi Mag,

Gold carried about $40 more than I expected for this wave B.(Original reversal zone target was $615-660) Probably due to probs in the middle East.
Interesting to note that once again Gold has stopped dead in it's tracks a little short of the 3/4 level of the range down ($684). This is almost identical to the situation back in May when gold stopped it's re test @ $717.5(also the 3/4 level of that 1st leg down).
The US Dollar has continued to rise against all major currencies as expected from months ago when 95% of commenators said it was doomed. One would therefore expect this entire move on Gold of the last month to be fully retraced in time and for Gold to head to new correction lows before it can start base building for it's continued long term bull trend. That in my opinion is some time off (probably a year or more)

Cheers
 
Tim Wood on Gold's 9-Year Cycle

Tim Wood discusses the 4 year stock market cycle. Stocks have been struggling and Tim thinks that the 4 year cycle will provide a great buying opportunity by this fall. Tim shares his thoughts on precious metals as well as equities and tells us where he thinks they are headed.

http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/15.07.2006/07.15.06f.mp3

http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/15.07.2006/stream/07.15.06f.m3u

He believes gold will hit a cycle-low in 2009 or 2010. And that the current gold-bull is building a base for the next 9-year gold-upleg.
 
Thor said:
Hi all, last week I found your sight and have been reading your posts with interest, and love to see the retracements.
I thought I'd put my two bobs worth in, I'm on LHG with some options, looking for the rally of Gold to take it up.
I would think the demand for gold will be keeping it in an up trend and the drop tonight hit the bottom of the trend line that's it's been following and there is support around that $645 mark, I don't think it will go below this $645 mark, and it won't take long to break todays high of around the $676 ? which is a resistance point, then I'm hoping from there it will lift LHG, it's all my opinion, and I hope I'm right, but even if it goes down to $620, I won't be pulling my hair out yet.


LHG is having profit announcement on the 31st this month. Today it closed at $2.68 and gold is trading at $612/ounce.
Do you see a continual downward trend in the short term, or do you think the annoucement will bring the share price back over $3.00. Personally, Iam confident, about the short term, I think gold is due for a rebound, at least a little bit.
 
Re: Tim Wood on Gold's 9-Year Cycle

BlueDaze said:
Tim Wood discusses the 4 year stock market cycle. Stocks have been struggling and Tim thinks that the 4 year cycle will provide a great buying opportunity by this fall. Tim shares his thoughts on precious metals as well as equities and tells us where he thinks they are headed.

http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/15.07.2006/07.15.06f.mp3

http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/15.07.2006/stream/07.15.06f.m3u

He believes gold will hit a cycle-low in 2009 or 2010. And that the current gold-bull is building a base for the next 9-year gold-upleg.


Hey BlueDaze,

I 100% agree with Tim Woods(Refer my earlier posts on this thread).

Still think Gold price will net sideways for quite a while before putting in a new low. 2009 is what I am seeing as well and a possible turning point for gold again. Needs to washout all the current bullish pundits before using that possible future low as a springboard for much bigger things

Cheers
 
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