Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[wayneL]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

There's a bit of promise in gold staging a decent rally here.

There's that capitulation low we all saw a few days ago, now a higher low in place as of yestarday, and a near vertical $17 move since shortly after the open of the pit session.

New highs??? Dunno 'bout that, but a useful rally hopefully.

Got my genuine imitation bull horns on for now

Bull horns back in the cupboard.

The black bear has just gone short.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Bull horns back in the cupboard.

The black bear has just gone short.

Hi Wayne,

Personally like you I still think there is more downside here, but I reckon volatility and the rate of change of price will slow form here, with price either
consolidating in a medium sideways pattern before putting further lows or slowly ratcheting down.

Cheers

 

[Sean K]

0052 GMT [Dow Jones] National Australia Bank ratchets up spot gold forecasts to average US$633/oz this year, US$753 (or A$1,000-plus) in 2007, reflecting year-to-date price increases. Views pullback from mid-May high US$730 to US$582.45 now as correction in ongoing bull market driven by anticipated US rate decreases from 2007 given weakened economic outlook. "Gold investment demand should remain the key driving factor in coming months - supported by geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and incentives to diversify away from US dollar assets," bank says in quarterly review. (JAD)

 

[GreatPig]

National Australia Bank ratchets up spot gold forecasts to average US$633/oz this year, US$753 (or A$1,000-plus) in 2007

I wish it would hurry up...

GP

 

[GreatPig]

Ever the hopeful bear...

(this is the current market depth for Gold Corp call warrants)

Cheers,
GP

 

[GreatPig]

After quite a struggle to get there, it looks like it might be starting to stay above $600 again.

Hopefully it won't just be a short-lived burst.

Cheers,
GP

 

[Sean K]

Looks tenuous to me GP. Might keep going, but further consolidation likely just under the mark, before pushing on. I am very happy for some sideways action in the short term so it builds a solid base of buying and OWNERSHIP. Then it can spike again. Off back to $700 by end of year. Let's hope it just sneaks up there this time instead of the hot speccie money jumping in creating another 'bubble' situ. Long term, easy money.

 

[Magdoran]

Currently the Gold chart looks bearish to me for the next month or so.

I would expect it to either rally briefly from here and fail, or to move to a fast trend down immediately.

I'll attach a couple of charts to illustrate the reasoning behind this.

 

[professor_frink]

hi magdoran, that's an interesting chart you've posted! It's a gann chart isn't it? would you be able to explain it a bit for types that don't know much about it?

 

[MalteseBull]

GOLD 612 and SILVER UP TOO

looking good with geopolitical news lifting...

SBM, RCO should smash 'em Monday both over 60c

 

[LPA]

Gold has broken through it's resistance at $610 - hopefully if it maintains that at next open the bull shall return

 

[wavepicker]

I agree with Magdoran,


I believe this rally will fizzle out in the $615-$660 zone. As stated in earlier a posts, a relief rally was expected, to correct the large down move. When this rally finishes, volatility and rate of change of price should start to slow, and price should slowly ratchet down to lower levels and build a longer term base.

Interesting that Magdoran has resistance in time at approximately the 4th of July. This is when I would expect other indices to have a similar resistance in time.

At this point there is no reason to get excited about the move in gold. Only a close above $684 will change my mind. I held the bull phase from April 2001 till April this year. Once again, In no hurry to jump back in just yet.

Cheers

*- I am not qualified to give financial advice- any comments stated regarding the probabilities of financial market movements are purely personal opinions and observations. Any charts posted are for educational purposes only for intersted parties. It should be recognized that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.

 

[wayneL]

Folks

IMO

Keep a close eye on the Fed. Gold is rising because the helicopter boy and his corrupt cabal of private bankers are being punished for having undersized gonads.

Everybody know they should have raised 0.5%, but the panty waisted slime only raised .25, tanking the US dollar.

The rise in gold is primarily US$ based, but of course the speculaters, all of us included, hop on the bus, pushing POG up in real terms as well.

The Fed won't stand for this because of the threat of a USD apocalypse... they'll prop the dollar, stalling any real run on Gold.

It doesn't mean don't be on it, but it means to keep an eye of ALL the mitigating factors.

Cheers

 

[Magdoran]

Hello All


I have received some interesting personal messages on my Gold post. I accept that this is just an interpretation of the limited information I have though chart forecasting. It is possible for a sideways move to occur from here, or even a bullish drive to exceed the current major high. However, I concur with Wavepicker's analysis in this situation.

I probably should have explained my thinking for making such a contrarian call. This is a short term forecast, and does not apply to the longer term projections for Gold of which I am uncertain. I think that there is a reasonable probability for another leg down. My thinking is based on the idea that this is a blow off move, and that time and price have overbalanced.

Of course it’s possible that Gold may skyrocket immediately from here. But with the movements in the US bond market which is in a strong downtrend (although last nights price action saw a strong rally), effectively raising interest rates, coupled with the ongoing FED rate rises, which look in my opinion likely to continue, and the strengthening of the Us dollar in the short term, and with oil poised potentially to run up to test $90 within 3 months, that this may dent the advances in gold for the short term.

Downward moves can “motor up” very quickly, and move on very small volumes before they find support. My suspicion is that we have at least one more test down to wash out the sellers before resumption. Have a look at the pattern of trend in Gold when it has had blow off moves, say back in the late 70’s, and see what it does when it makes vertical styled moves.

Specifically look at the pattern in Jan-March in 1980, and compare it with the current pattern. There could be a retest of the current low, either exceeding it, or making a marginal higher low. From the current price action, I favour a new low.

I think it will find resistance on Tuesday with a target price around 624.25, then pull back from here. If a bearish drive doesn’t eventuate, then I’d favour a sideways basing pattern to eventuate.


Regards


Magdoran

 

[Captain G]

Hi Magdoran, just very curious, but why will oil be poised to potentially run up to test $90 within 3 months ??
Cheers, Capt.

 

[wayneL]

...with oil poised potentially to run up to test $90 within 3 months

Now that would put the cat amongst the pigeons.

 

[Magdoran]

Originally posted by professor frink

hi magdoran, that's an interesting chart you've posted! It's a gann chart isn't it? would you be able to explain it a bit for types that don't know much about it?

Hello professor frink,


Yes, the top chart is a Gann chart. While I’d love to answer your question succinctly, this is very difficult to answer in one post. To illustrate the multifaceted nature of Gann interpretations, just do a Google search on the net, and you’ll see what I mean.

There are many approaches to Gann, and this particular chart is using specific techniques - I used a custom Gann square aiming to forecast in both time and price. This particular square is using a time cycle combined with corresponding price increments and “time angles”.

That probably doesn’t mean much since this kind of approach like any is made up of conceptual components. Essentially there are a variety of conflicting approaches (some would say schools of thought) in interpreting Gann.

I suppose the approach I’ve utilised focuses on the pattern, allied with time cycles and squares, although I do occasionally use “true trend lines” and “zero angles”. I’ve also combined this with a Gann revision of Elliott too which adds another dimension. But I’m not a Gann purist in the sense that some people believe anything that Gann said is gospel, on the contrary, I think that any body of knowledge is flawed and can be improved on with revision.

Hence I don’t really use the “square of 9” much, or subscribe to the astrologists/planetary cycle/ephemeris based schools (you’ve seen Yogi’s posts – especially his emphasis on the “bible codes” and Tunnel Through the Air – I just don’t get these at all, but maybe he’s onto something, I just don’t know – Hi Yogi!), although there are some common elements of course, but radically different approaches.

The key idea for me in my interpretation is to find patterns which allow for forecasting outcomes in both time and price, and assessing probabilities. But as you can imagine, while some of the core concepts seem simple, utilising them in practice is another matter. It takes a long time to really integrate all the elements, and you never really stop learning.

I hope this helps a little as a first pass.


Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

Originally posted by Captain G

Hi Magdoran, just very curious, but why will oil be poised to potentially run up to test $90 within 3 months ??
Cheers, Capt.

Hello Captain G,


I had intended to post on the oil thread, but ran out of time…

I did say “potential” by the way, and this is based on the idea that crude and Brent oil have consolidated and may have a fast move up.

If you extend the previous range from low to high before the consolidation and extend this 100%, you get $93.07. Depending on the price action over the next few days (if we get a higher low), could see oil drive up hard. If you look at the nature of trend in oil, often consolidations become 50% levels into the future. If this is so, it is quite conceivable oil may drive to the 100% extension (if not, maybe 50%, or 25% etc etc – you’d have to see the chart – which is not finished yet – I don’t have the time figured out).

A fly in the ointment is what HUSpotV (unleaded futures) will do. I have a theory that it is fuel and not pharmaceuticals and other ancillary products from cracking plants and refineries that drive the price. I think fuels are the key driver, and secondarily lubrication.

Friday’s HUSpotV could reverse from here, it opened, spiked up, then closed near the opening – potentially a false break, and maybe a reversal. My suspicion is that it is a temporary pull back before a fast trend up, but I could be wrong, and will be watching as events unfold.

But I do see the potential for a very strong bullish drive if oil can break up, and make a higher low above the consolidation – nice bullish volume confirming the move would help too…

Hope that makes sense, but you’d have to see the charts to really see what I’m getting at… will try to do this before I fly out on Monday…


Regards


Magdoran

 

[michael_selway]

Hello Captain G,


I had intended to post on the oil thread, but ran out of time…

I did say “potential” by the way, and this is based on the idea that crude and Brent oil have consolidated and may have a fast move up.

If you extend the previous range from low to high before the consolidation and extend this 100%, you get $93.07. Depending on the price action over the next few days (if we get a higher low), could see oil drive up hard. If you look at the nature of trend in oil, often consolidations become 50% levels into the future. If this is so, it is quite conceivable oil may drive to the 100% extension (if not, maybe 50%, or 25% etc etc – you’d have to see the chart – which is not finished yet – I don’t have the time figured out).

A fly in the ointment is what HUSpotV (unleaded futures) will do. I have a theory that it is fuel and not pharmaceuticals and other ancillary products from cracking plants and refineries that drive the price. I think fuels are the key driver, and secondarily lubrication.

Friday’s HUSpotV could reverse from here, it opened, spiked up, then closed near the opening – potentially a false break, and maybe a reversal. My suspicion is that it is a temporary pull back before a fast trend up, but I could be wrong, and will be watching as events unfold.

But I do see the potential for a very strong bullish drive if oil can break up, and make a higher low above the consolidation – nice bullish volume confirming the move would help too…

Hope that makes sense, but you’d have to see the charts to really see what I’m getting at… will try to do this before I fly out on Monday…


Regards


Magdoran

hi thx, so in short, for gold, are u bullish or bearish on gold based on the charts above etc

thx

MS

 

[Magdoran]

Hello Michael,


Depends on the time frame. Short term the pattern looks to me like Gold needs to pull back (I suspect we’re in an Elliott wave 4 (simple) since we had a complex wave 2 – using rules of alternation – and we didn’t get a “two thrust” “ABC” correction, hence I suspect this is at least a 5 wave correction to the current 5 year bullish cycle – I hope this makes sense…).

Longer term, the jury is still out…


Regards


Magdoran