Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[GumbyLearner]

Hi GumbyLearner,

I have said it before and will say it again. What the hell do you know or are you talking about? Where do you even get your information from? Is it all sourced directly from Youtube nuts?

Gold has managed to save the gold bugs from themselves, despite their own stupidity.

Not you or any of the other goldbugs can explain why gold has been going up in price nor provide any valid reasoning for any such explanation. Until last month the lot of you were screaming hyperinflation is on its way. We hear talk of currency debasement but the USD continues to rise with gold. Gold is not rising and falling based on the indices or anything else that you claim.

I was trying to show people since I signed up to this site, how gold and the USD were not inversely correlated. This has turned out to be true since September but none of the gold bugs have anything to say about this or how it fits into their predictions for 4 digit gold.

They hold onto gold and their pre-crash arguments of why it is so great, even though these arguments have been invalidated for months now. In any other market, this would have left you all at a serious cash loss. Luckily gold has risen for other reasons (which I have tried to highlight many times now), and saved you from your own stupidity.

Why don't you explain to us all why I should take your advice and not sell my gold (even though I never said I was going to)?

So you think inflation will not be a problem in the near future?

Actually, maybe I should ask JP Morgan about how many short contracts during 2007 & 2008 they have held and executed over there on the phoney comex that explod mentioned? Oh and the bailout money that is now being paid directly to the phoney CD Swap gang.

Can I ask sinner what is your definition of 'quantative easing'? Does it involve printing money or just trickling it down to the many end-users like consumers? If that be the case, why are the banks supposedly not lending to anyone? Many countries won't need their trashy cash when they start bartering for food.

http://povertynewsblog.blogspot.com/2009/01/nations-begin-to-barter-for-food.html

And by the way where do you get your info from a chart and an economists argument about deflation? You tell me a bloody economist who has correctly forecast this downturn or a bank mouthpiece who hasn't talked down how dire the state of the banking system really is in.

What the hell would I know?
I know that banks should be put on inquiry by the nature of the transaction they enter into with a borrower. I know that this has traditionally been THEIR responsibility for a couple of millenia now. This isnt a conspiracy this is called sink or swim. If you are lending to the illiqiud, you deserve to become illiquid.

I think they have called it Prudential banking practice in the past. Now they call it fiscal stimilus and its been abdicated for taxpayers to pay for the bankers who ****ed-up. I want to have their cake and eat it too! Crappy loans they purchased from door-to-door salesman which they then repackaged and sold to Wall St bums. Australia is just a sideshow and we have suffered because of the distribution of this garbage from the States and Europe.

On the 2009 predicitions thread I said there would be more IMF bailouts. That's all. I'm not a know-it-all and it is almost impossible to plan one week to the next when the bankers are not required to come clean about how far down **** creek they really are.

Tough luck I say and they can keep their ****ty ass worthless policies that will debase the purchasing power of the currency because of their own reckless lending practices around the world.

I started investing years ago in commodities and will continue to in this kind of environment where the bankers of this world are as transparent as the turds that I flush down the dunny. It hurts more when the celebutards blindly make fantasy out of the current financial destruction occuring in reality.

So you can keep your chart analysis, moving averages, double-tops, bollinger bands and can inform me anytime over the next few weeks when the banks of Europe have to explain the losses in Eastern Europe. I will wait patiently for WHEN and WHAT parts of the facts are revealed in due course.

This is not financial advice.
Just my opinion.
DYOR

 

[explod]

Hi guys,

I have been up all night on shift and still cannot make my mind up on gold for the week.

.

Oh.. and by the way.... when you have observed Gumby's last post I suggest you get a bit more sleep through the night so that you can begin to absorb a bit of realiaty.

In todays Privateer, just a very small excerpt of reality (should be on both the gold and the Imminent thread), (they are one and the same to me though).

Fannie Mae:

...asked the US Treasury for $US 15.2 Billion in capital and raised the possibility of requesting more aid after a sixth consecutive quarterly loss drove its net worth to zero! Below aero - it is broke! Fannie and Freddie's combined books of business during December stood at $US 5.319 TRILLION.

TRILLION. he goes on with firm after firm after firm who comprised the wealth of the US, they are all broke, the US and the whole financial world as we know it it broke, factories supplying each other in cross trade have stopped, within months there will be empty shelves and many of the Supermarkets will be closed. Spare us Sinner, have some sleep and then tell us what to do, we want to know. Sure you cant' eat gold but what else is best to put your money in. I have stored up on backed beans but there is a limit.

In fact I am with Gumby, but that in itself does not help our situation.

cheers again on this wonderful Sunday (the sun rose)

explod

 

[Porper]

, within months there will be empty shelves and many of the Supermarkets will be closed. I have stored up on backed beans but there is a limit.

Blimey explod, I know we are in a recession but let's not get carried away.

If things get this bad you best sign off, get off your bum and enjoy the last few months of life as you know it.The world isn't coming to an end , things will just be tough for a few years.

Now on to the topic, Gold is going down in my opinion, at the very least for the best part of this year.Purely from an Elliot wave perspective, no fundamental reason.

 

[Glen48]

With all this doom and gloom GE GM going down 650K loose their jobs USA broke and paying $1M a second in interest, Gold should worthy more power than 10 pussy's???

 

[explod]

Porper Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Quote:
Originally Posted by explod
, within months there will be empty shelves and many of the Supermarkets will be closed. I have stored up on backed beans but there is a limit.


Blimey explod, I know we are in a recession but let's not get carried away. Now on to the topic, Gold is going down in my opinion, at the very least for the best part of this year.Purely from an Elliot wave perspective, no fundamental reason.

Not sure of your time frame, I have no medium or short term idea on gold and maybe not a lot of long term. Money is losing value, most medium to longer term investors have lost 50% in the last year or so; I just think gold is a good palce to park money till we can see where the world goes after it pans out.

Elliot wave, well there is consideraqble argument always in this, I liken it to a taught wire, push it up far enough and it will want to come down, it over shoots and then returns when the pressure again gets too great. Seasonal, financial and reporting cycles play a part as well. As a matter of fact an analyst by the name of Alf Field postulates ( on Elliot Wave theory) that gold is soon to go to $US 3,500 an ounce, we will wait and see. Find him and his articles ajfield@attglobal.net , the article to which I refer was reprinted at USAGOLD, Alf has been close to the mark with his gold direction but he also looks at other technicals and fundamentals.

Glen48 Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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With all this doom and gloom GE GM going down 650K loose their jobs USA broke and paying $1M a second in interest, Gold should worthy more power than 10 pussy's???

Not young or fit enough to consider the pussy's anymore so I suppose just the baked beans to take me out.

 

[GumbyLearner]

The world isn't coming to an end , things will just be tough for a few years.

Now on to the topic, Gold is going down in my opinion, at the very least for the best part of this year.Purely from an Elliot wave perspective, no fundamental reason.

I agree Porper. I don't think the world will end as we know it but I do think that the system of capital has been turned on it's head. Many people thought Ben Chifley was pretty kooky because he wanted to Nationalize the banks. Funny now that many of the doyens of international finance are now being rescued by Government's around the world, an approach they despised as socialist and wrong in the past.

As a capitalist who believes the democratic system is the best in comparison to all others to borrow from the great man Winston Churchill. I think it's difficult to predict further losses and their impact on the market. But certainly the banking system ATM is a con and value is being eroded across the board.

However, explod is correct and one of the better places to protect your store of wealth is gold. In an environment of non-disclosure I prefer Bernstein to Graham, when it comes to the strength of gold.

This is not financial advice.
Just an opinion
DYOR

 

[Glen48]

EX Policeman
Maybe you should work out a ratio on how much a can of BB's are worth in Gold to a 1 BB (Chinese for pussy) so when the demise starts we can know our wealth when we fill in our Tax return.
Sorry to hear jo I is no longer important to you but it must be good to be free of the pussy power.
Now back to Gold .gggggggggggrrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

[Glen48]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83UUkiLyd0U

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gz8v2xnWaLE

 

[GumbyLearner]

Frauds and Ponzi schemes to surface within gold and oil markets.

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Di...h=March2009&file=Business_News20090308802.xml

 

[joeyr46]

Not sure of your time frame, I have no medium or short term idea on gold and maybe not a lot of long term. Money is losing value, most medium to longer term investors have lost 50% in the last year or so; I just think gold is a good palce to park money till we can see where the world goes after it pans out.


Surely you've got this backwards most investors have lost value as there shares have halved or if they invested in cash they have made serious money as it is now worth twice as much. Nobody seems to think of investing in cash even now after the biggest sharemarket correction for a long time Why if were facing deflation would you invest in gold (its an inflation hedge )
I know printing money is usually a recipe for inflation but not this time because we have had credit inflation for several years and all printing money is going to do is stave the deflation of a little not stop it. We'll know in plenty of time if we have inflation as both gold and interest rates will take off, otherrwise we are in for major deleveraging with all prices of assets going down and cash going up in value or what it can buy, and this will continue till everybody thinks cash is an investment again IMO and nobody is interested in either shares or gold

 

[explod]

Surely you've got this backwards most investors have lost value as there shares have halved or if they invested in cash they have made serious money as it is now worth twice as much. Nobody seems to think of investing in cash even now after the biggest sharemarket correction for a long time Why if were facing deflation would you invest in gold (its an inflation hedge )

The great thing about gold is that it protects against both inflation and deflation. The deflation we have is of banks and businesses losing value, that is reflected in the 44% loss last year in the average world markets, this year allready we are down 20% on world markets. Gold however is holding up against both markets and the value of money. In this shorter term the $us has gained some but, as I pointed out a few posts back, for very good reasons, this will be temporary and gold will break up further.

The deflation has really only accellerated from the crash in October 2008, there is more to come with further stock market falls yet but there is evidence emerging (and the Aussie Reserve signaled it last week) that deflation and the lowering of interest rates is at an end. Of course in many places they are so low that they cannot lower more. There is also clear evidence that money is tight and hard to obtain. Does not this perhaps signal the commencement of inflation from the tangible assets side (food and necissities) and with the printing of money commenced by the UK the deflation of money which will make gold skyrocket.

One of the problems you have old pal is the the Keynes methods of 1936, of pouring more in and spending our way out is collapsing. The world has never been in this situation before, ever, so the old rules and sayings may not apply.

While we have such uncertain times I feel safest sitting with gold. When inflation becomes rampant for real assets I may then consider going back into some property also. At the moment we will see. Have a ponder on the following chart, courtesy the "Privateer" newsletter.

Market March 27-02 Mar-6-09 Result Percent
$US Gold $302.20 $942.70 +$640.50 +211.95%
$US Index 118.91 88.55 -30.36 -25.53%
Dow 10427 6626 -3801 -36.45%

 

[sinner]

I have no reply to any of the comments posted here.

They just highlight how silly both the hardcore deflationists (can't recognise gold is money) and hardcore inflationists (can't recognise deflation even if it bites them in the ****) arguments are.

Neither hold any water (otherwise they would be reflected by market prices), yet both camps still cling to their argument.

From now on I will just ignore silly comments by both camps instead of trying to put forth a rational viewpoint thanks to the response received in this thread.

All you will get from me now is a quiet chart or two.

I have finally added a new trendline on my gold 1h chart (first new addition since 30th Dec) at 5am on the 7th March.

Tonights price action has confirmed this new line very very well and negated any chance of a strong upward move for several days!

 

[sinner]

Just wanted to clarify one point which really bugged me, gold has not been rallying against market slumps in the last two weeks. In fact it has been selling off with the broader market, with continuously declining open interest.

I challenge anyone to prove this statement as incorrect.

We have just broken below a major point on my chart, the 100SMA. Gold-bugs beware.

 

[Glen48]

The more bad news the lower it goes????
Having remained in a very tight band below $940/oz throughout the EU am session and right up until very recently, [GOLD] has broken lower to test early $920/oz levels on spot. The move has come against the backdrop of the latest recovery in stock markets, which has diminished the appeal of Gold as a safe-haven instrument, while investors put some money back in to equities. Note, however, the current rebound remains fragile, like so many others recently,

 

[projack]

Surely you've got this backwards most investors have lost value as there shares have halved or if they invested in cash they have made serious money as it is now worth twice as much. Nobody seems to think of investing in cash even now after the biggest sharemarket correction for a long time Why if were facing deflation would you invest in gold (its an inflation hedge )
I know printing money is usually a recipe for inflation but not this time because we have had credit inflation for several years and all printing money is going to do is stave the deflation of a little not stop it. We'll know in plenty of time if we have inflation as both gold and interest rates will take off, otherrwise we are in for major deleveraging with all prices of assets going down and cash going up in value or what it can buy, and this will continue till everybody thinks cash is an investment again IMO and nobody is interested in either shares or gold

So basically what you say; U.S. debt is the safe haven?

So if we start producing things only few people wants and the price of those goods drops, then the purchasing power of your money will increase because nobody will buy those goods. In this case nobody spends money because cash is such a great investment, so the government is OK to print money to save you from the increasing purchasing power of you cash, and you can buy those previously unwanted goods again on the original prices because so much more money is around.
I’ve got it now.

 

[Glen48]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/37fcba70-0...0779fd2ac.html

 

[GumbyLearner]

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. posted its worst results ever in 2008, said the economy “has fallen off a cliff” and that efforts to stimulate recovery may lead to inflation higher than the 1970s.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azL2a7n4_.Wc&refer=home

 

[explod]

sinner Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Tonights price action has confirmed this new line very very well and negated any chance of a strong upward move for several days!

Have no problem with that, the short term move looks correct, my time frame is different.

What got up the skirt was your criticism of Gumbylearner. We are all entitled to our views and none of us are necessarily correct at any time. The curent financial mess and the price of gold is like that this time.

You analysis is in fact very good and informative.

cheers explod

 

[sinner]

Have no problem with that, the short term move looks correct, my time frame is different.

What got up the skirt was your criticism of Gumbylearner. We are all entitled to our views and none of us are necessarily correct at any time. The curent financial mess and the price of gold is like that this time.

You analysis is in fact very good and informative.

cheers explod

Even though I said I would not reply you have once again goaded me into anger.

GumbyLearner deserves to be called out on his propaganda spreading junk. You also.

He could not explain the net short positions by the big instos in gold if he ever even tried. Just seeing them net short on the COMEX is enough for him to cry conspiracy.

What happened to the COMEX busting in December? Never happened did it.

Despite the fact that the gold price has been rising against this net short position for almost a decade (which completely invalidates his and your conspiracy theory), it also completely ignores the fact that just like other forms of money (of which gold is one) it must be lent out to make a profit. The same way central banks lease their money, they lease gold. Of course they will be net short! This is the job of the dealer! Do you think the bank makes money by leaving their cash in accounts? No! They loan it out! Just like gold!

Otherwise the natural rate of debasement for gold is 2% per annum, roughly the same as a basket of world currencies today. Also remember, international central bank holdings in gold is roughly 13% of total reserves and holdings, just like most portfolios should have! So these currencies are 13% backed by gold price!

He also claims quantitative easing as another reason gold will go up, but he cannot explain this measure at all or the mechanisms behind it or why any of this has any relation to gold whatsoever. This unchecked and willful ignorance sickens me. How can you claim quantitative easing will cause gold price to go up when every word you spout shows you don't even know what quantitative easing is or how it works.

I think the funniest thing of all is that all of you crazies are happy enough to rant against the banks and how they will all fall over and everything but you've still got a brokerage account with one or the other of them, probably long a bunch of gold miners which you expect to cash in for fiat at a huge profit.

i.e. you apparently detest fiat and the banks, but are happy to hold trading accounts and fiat backed shares on a fiat market with the goal of playing this market for a fiat profit. You say there is nowhere safe to put your money but gold explod, yet I know you hold or held gold mining shares since September. This is a blatant hypocrisy.

Just look at this quote

And by the way where do you get your info from a chart and an economists argument about deflation? You tell me a bloody economist who has correctly forecast this downturn or a bank mouthpiece who hasn't talked down how dire the state of the banking system really is in.

I can name several contrarian and Austrian school analysts who picked the downturn (correct), forecast deflation (correct), forecast USD increase (correct), forecast gold increase (correct), went short financials (correct).

But I won't. You have to go back and look through my posts if you want to see this as I have spent countless hours researching and linking to spoon-feed you like children while you post links to silly youtube nuts. Why should I contribute to your willful ignorance any further?

Instead you follow the nutter camp who claimed hyperinflation (incorrect), USD collapse (incorrect), commodities boom (incorrect), oil boom (incorrect) and only got two right: gold increase and short financials. What a joke.

So you can see just how gold has saved the nuts from themselves. You yourself claimed gold was rallying against market collapse but there is no proof of this since 1007 gold as I have challenged in my last above post. Gold has been selling off with the broader market with rapidly declining open interest.

If you are all so sure of hyperinflation, you should be short treasuries, not long gold! But not one of you has the guts to do this even though if your claims were only halfway correct you would be as rich as a Saudi oil prince by now.

The least funny thing is that I have repeatedly said all this before to GumbyLearner, he just ignored me and spouted more of the same crap which simply does not hold water. None of the mods care because they are so used to seeing irrational junk being spouted on this thread by the goldbugs.

This is the only thread on ASF where people can talk baseless trash and get away with it.

EDIT: Oh one more bone to pick.

explod you say you will be holding onto your physical because it will be impossible to get more once you sell it (or pay a "ridiculous" premium). Yeah right! How long have you even been buying gold? I have been a long term buyer (since I was as young as 5 I have held gold because of my heritage) and many of the "rational goldbugs" aka Austrian school traders I speak have been buying gold since it was 200 or less. This is the same premium as it was last year and all the years before that.

I can walk into Aus Bullion and buy an ounce of minted 999 gold coin or bar on the spot without filling out any forms or anything. The premium is 14% for 1oz and decreases as your purchase size increases. If you buy a 5oz bar the premium is less again and less again for a 10oz bar, etcetera.

There is no shortage in physical gold, just a production bottleneck for the increased demand in small denominations. 400oz LBMA bars are in fluid availability all over the world. You can take delivery on COMEX or CBOT bars just like any other commodity, but it will be in 400oz bars.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Sinner LOL!