Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Glen48]

From Kitco Gold Forum: FYI
I’m posting my corespondents with Jaggards here because this gold set is still listed for sale for the same price, http://www.jaggards.com.au/shop/view...&categoryid=66
but they don’t want to sell it. So be aware with them.

February 04, 2009
I had an order for the 2005 Six Coin Gold Proof Set on the weekend.
I was waiting for email conformation before payment

February 6, 2009
Yes thats fine. you can fax or email me the details, or i can call.Thanks,Ari


February 6, 2009
I want to make a direct transfer to your account for the amount of $4510.
Please confirm your account details.
The Delivery address is: X. Y. W Street Qld.
Regards Peter


February 11, 2009,
Hi Peter, JAGGARDS PTY LTD.BSB 032002Account # 160661 Thanks,Ari


February 16, 2009
Hi Ari Still have not received any contact or confirmation since the $4510.00 has been transferred to your account last Thursday. Please do send me a conformation email. Regards Peter

February 16, 2009
Hi Peter,Can you email me your phone number and a good time to call? Ari


February 17, 2009
Hi Ari, I don’t quite understand what else you want to talk about after the deal is done, but you have not contacted me yesterday anyway.
Since we made a deal with a very serious amount of money, I did confirm, this deal twice with you before I did transfer any money to your account. Once with the actual sell and price of the coins, and once again with your account details.
After this I expecting postal delivery of the coins to the address: X.Y. W Street Qld.
The bank confirmed me that you have received the money, so the only thing left from you part is to advise me of the time of postage, and the registration number of the delivery.
Regards Peter

February 18, 2009,
Hi Peter, We will have to refund the money, and will this m0rning. There has been a few problems. I can forward links to new laws in Australia regarding gold sales.Basically, we now (by law) need for any customer to come into our shop in person, and fill out a form, we need to sight 100 points of ID, and register the customers name.We then can sell gold (if its pure).Next purchase that customer doesnt need to come to the store as we have them on file. If ASIC decides they can then come to us and obtain any record of gold purchases from us.Its been very hard to deal with as Im sure you understand we mainly deal in gold, and as such are losing a lot of customers already (this just happened.We are having a meeting with ASIC shortly, and trying to resolve the issues - but it doesnt look good. The fines are quite hefty also. I wanted to call reallyt as its complicated, but maybe this explains it all. If you want a copy of the new rules, Im happy to forward. Also please let me know bank details and Ill get the funds back ASAP. Sorry about that, I hoped we could have sorted it. Sincere regards, Ari

February 18, 2009
Thanks for you quick replay.
I think we can resolve this problem very easily.
Let me suggest only the 2 most practical way doing it.
1; You can sell me the set broken up so each transaction would be under the reporting level.
2; Since the transfer coming from my mothers account who is also the delivery address, she can send you a certified copy of the 100 point check by mail.
Hope this will satisfy your legal requirements. Let me know which one you like.

I haven’t herd from this new law, only found the current sales requirements on the Perth Mint website copied below. Also did some enquire from various numismatic clubs and no one had any problems.

This is from the Perth mint website:
http://www.perthmint.com.au/metalpri...selling. aspx
BUYING: or SELLING:
All transactions of $10,000 or more will require an AUSTRAC 100 Point Check form to be completed. A current driver’s licence and birth certificate/passport is sufficient to fulfil this one-off requirement. We require certified copies of these documents for clients who conduct transactions over the telephone.

Also here is the revellent law
7 Definition of ‘bullion' for the purposes of the AML/CTF Act

7.1 AUSTRAC considers that the following definition of ‘bullion' is appropriate for the purposes of the AML/CTF Act:
‘Bullion' means gold, silver, platinum or palladium authenticated to a specified fineness in the form of:
(a) bars, ingots, plates, wafers or other similar mass form; or
(b) coins
which trade at a price determined by reference to the market value of the constituent metal and the authenticated fineness of the item.
‘authentication of fineness' means commercially acceptable hallmark or stamping, or by means of the base form of an item, such as in the case of coins. AUSTRAC guidance note 09/01 – Definition of 'bullion' under the AML/CTF Act February 2009, original issue (v1), Page 4 of 4
2 AUSTRAC considers that collector, proof or other coins which are traded on the basis of their numismatic, commemorative or rarity value are not bullion.
Regards Peter


February 19, 2009
Can you please respond to my emails so we can resolve this issue ASAP.
Sine I made so much enquirers, and even forwarded the relevant law, seem to me we are able to go ahead with the deal, and even friends offering personal assistance in Sydney as the last resort to help me out.
Regards Peter

February 20, 2009
Hi Peter,I have spoken to my Boss, and at this stage we prefer to refund. Please provide bank details or I can send a cheque to you.Sorry and best regards,Ari

 

[electronicmaster]

From Kitco Gold Forum:

February 20, 2009
Hi Peter,I have spoken to my Boss, and at this stage we prefer to refund. Please provide bank details or I can send a cheque to you.Sorry and best regards,Ari

Would that be because the order is registered under the same invoice number?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Very quiet in here. Is that the silent confidence thingo? :

 

[Glen48]

E. M. I think it has some thing top do with the ATO and declaring certain items over 10K maybe the ATO is worried people will buy Gold and they will have no register???
Not sure if I posted this but:

By Tim Treadgold

February 25, 2009

PORTFOLIO POINT: Having briefly topped $US1000 an ounce, the gold price appears to be following a familiar pattern.

Too far, too fast. That’s what hurt gold this week after its moment at a price above $US1000 an ounce, and then a fast retreat as demand dried up and sellers quit investment positions. Moreover, gold scrap, old jewellery and even old gold teeth had started to hit the market in volume in recent weeks, a sure sign of a “top”.

Will gold run up again? “Probably” is the only safe answer because gold is an extremely price-sensitive commodity with thousands of tonnes available every time the price rises too quickly.

For investors with an interest in gold (and that ought to be everyone) now might be a good time to sit on the sidelines or even trim their exposure because last week’s surge in the gold price changed the dynamics of the market.

Once the $US1000 mark was breached, gold investors, many simply active in the exchange-trade fund (ETF) market, were swamped by sellers of physical gold keen to cash out of surplus gold assets.

In one case, according to a US television report on Tuesday, the president of Gold and Jewelry Buyers of America, Jim Mataich, said he had even bought gold teeth last weekend at his store in Parma, Ohio.

“People were coming out of the woodwork to unload stuff just to get them through another month or two,” Mataich said. “Coins, rings, jewellery, heirlooms … even the gold teeth they had sitting in a drawer.”

That dramatic description, from a regional US pawn broker operating a shop called Cash-4-Gold, highlights the two-faced nature of gold, which is both a form of money and just another commodity used as a body adornment, by some industries, and in dentistry.

Until the $US1000 mark was cracked, gold was in its monetary mood, acting as a safe haven for investors fleeing most other investment classes. Over the weekend gold put on its commodity face with recession-hit households around the world cashing in everything from old bracelets to Granny’s teeth.

It was the high of $US1007.70 in New York last Friday that spooked the gold market, in a precise re-run of what happened 11 months ago.



On March 14 last year gold closed in London at $US1003.50 an ounce, peaked the next day at $US1011.25, then started a slow decline that took the price back to $US712 by October – a 29.9% slide.

That downward move was broken by the global financial crisis which followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the US, and “runs” on other US banks as the financial system teetered on collapse.

Between October and last Friday, as stockmarkets crashed around the world, the gold price soared by 41% in US dollar terms, and even more in other currencies. In Australia, the gold price passed the $1500 mark last week, but is now back around $1490.

It is reasonable to assume – unless you are a one-eyed gold addict who believes the end of the world is nigh – that the flood of gold scrap will continue to hit the market over the next few months thanks, in part, to the very reason it rose so quickly: fear of recession.

Investors controlled the leg up as they shifted cash out of banks and shares into gold. Households desperate to raise cash as the recession bites are now in control of the market – a classic tug of war between buyers and sellers.

To put the gold market into clearer focus consider what happened over the past two weeks to one of the world’s top gold analysts, Bart Melek, from the Canadian investment bank, BMO Capital Markets.

On February 9, as a preparatory document before BMO’s annual Global Metals and Mining investment conference in Florida, Melek published a report titled: A perfect storm brewing for gold.

No one who has followed the gold sector for many years, including me, could fault anything in that report, which concluded that gold should be “a strong performer for at least the next three years”.

But, in the detail of Melek’s report was this comment: “Gold appears to have run ahead of its main drivers; the US dollar is strengthening and disinflationary risks are growing in the short run.”



In other words, two critically important factors that underpin the gold price – fear of inflation eroding the value of paper (fiat) money, and a decline in the value of the US dollar – are missing in the latest speculative rush into gold, and away from other asset classes.

Melek added: “It is possible that gold will retrench below $US850, before trending up toward $US1000 later in the year.”

He was right. Just early, and it was the dash up (and over) the $US1000 mark that has caused gold advocates to draw back and for gold sellers to take control of the market, at least in the short term.

No one is tipping that gold will retreat back to $US712 as it did last year, but it would be reasonable to believe that a period of price contraction has started as surplus gold is absorbed by the market.

A table and a graph in Melek’s February 9 gold analysis are useful tools in understanding the dynamics of the gold market.







In the table (A), which is a gold supply and demand model, it can be seen that primary gold production (new gold from mines) has been in decline since hitting a peak of 2621 tonnes in 2003, and falling by 9% to 2385 tonnes (and perhaps rising slightly this year thanks to the lure of a high price).

Sticking with 2008 it can be seen that primary gold production was boosted by official sector (government) sales of 279 tonnes and 1108 tonnes of scrap to lift total gold supply of 3772 tonnes.





The importance of scrap in the equation (including Granny’s teeth) is shown by the fact that it represented 29.4% of total supply last year – and the higher the price rises the more scrap makes it to market.

On the demand side, equally interesting things have been happening. As the gold price has risen jewellery and industrial/dental demand has dropped, a classic example of price sensitivity.

Taking up the slack in demand has been investment, especially bars, coins and the new boy on the block, exchange-traded funds.

The importance of ETFs, products that hold gold in precise proportion to cash invested, is shown in the rise from just three tonnes in 2002 to 308 tonnes last year, a rise tracked in a separate graph (B) which, unfortunately uses troy ounces as its demand measure. Australia's biggest ETF is the ASX listed Gold Bullion Securities (GOLD).

Useful as the BMO graphics are to understanding what drives the gold market (up and down) there is a third illustration that highlights why gold should be part of a balanced investment portfolio.

Governments, the same people flooding the world with paper money as a means of beating back recession, remain true believers in gold.

According to the BMO table (using data provided by the World Gold Council, Bloomberg and other sources) governments around the world, despite some high profile sales, retain 26,354 tonnes of gold.

Interesting as that number is there are two other numbers that catch the eye. The US, with its 8133.5 tonnes of gold stuffed into Fort Knox, owns gold that represents 577% of its reserves – in other words, it’s the only positive asset on the US balance sheet.

But, the really important number for investors is at the bottom of the table – the 11.3% gold occupies as the total of all government reserves.



There’s a message in that percentage and one that I’ve written about before. Gold is an important part of any investment portfolio, private or public, with 10% being a rough guide to how much exposure you should have.

The tricky questions are how to buy gold (shares, bullion, ETFs) and when?

For purists, you cannot beat taking physical possession of gold, complete with the cost of safely storing it. However, well-run ETFs are a reasonable substitute though in truth they do carry an implied trust because all you are actually getting is a piece of paper, which says you’re entitled to a certain amount of gold – just don’t expect to be able to ever see it.

Gold shares come in all shapes and sizes, from the well-run and profitable producers such as Newcrest and Lihir, to the re-emerging producers such as Kingsgate and Resolute, and the new boys on the block, such as Centamin.

Interestingly, the new float game is not (yet) being played with gold despite the high price. There are no new floats listed with the ASX, just Ballarat South which tried (but failed) to float last year.

Most recent raisings have been for recapitalisation of existing gold miners such as Newmont and Newcrest, both of which attracted a flood of money. In the case of Newcrest, it asked for $500 million and took in $750 million, virtually overnight.

But, that was last week, before gold’s mad dash through the $US1000 mark with the next few months likely to see a retreat.

BMO’s Melek reckons the average price in the first half of this year will be about $US850 an ounce, a tip that implies a substantial fall. In the second half, the average is forecast to be $US925, with the same price tip applying to 2010.

Those prices are, obviously, one man’s view of the gold market. But it is a well-informed view that should not be ignored.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Very quiet in here. Is that the silent confidence thingo? :

Just waiting for the kiddies to finish with their games - at least they are predictable, letting everyone play their short game at the same time of day so we can get some sleep

It's hit my lower channel line here (post 6434) so see if it holds or it needs more time to consolidate sideways or lower?

 

[sinner]

Very quiet in here. Is that the silent confidence thingo? :

I have not been confident of golds price action since it breached the upside of my own 681-940ish trading channel in an overbought condition.

However, I guess it all depends on how you draw the charts. I like mine because they closely match the price action on the other side of the March highs. Nonetheless, here are two from Chris V showing gold is still behaving nicely on a technical level. If you had followed his recommendations over the last three weeks you would not have had too much trouble. A few other goldbugs also dumping everything but physical at 1000 or even before.

From http://www.safehaven.com/article-12723.htm

They are a couple of days old so I have not attached them. Included below instead is the chart I use, which has made me far more money than it has lost (both short and long).

The trend/channel lines are all identical. You can ignore the fib numbers, I only included them to show the 50% retracement matching the trendline.

Also, the "golden cross" - 50MA moving strongly over 200MA - has not yet been invalidated (afaik 0 cases of the golden cross failing in gold market) and this remains strongly bullish imho. If the cross is invalidated very soon, then this would be strongly bearish for gold.

We have also entered stochastic overbought territory (with the RSI indicating some more downside to come) with thankfully no technical damage to the chart.

If the stochastic can round down nicely now for another leg up that would conform best to my opinion (Chris V is looking for 900 and a reversal candle, and the lower Boll band provides some credence to this) but I recognise the possibility we may exit the channel to the downside, fill the gap at/near 850, and hopefully find strong resistance for another leg up from the 200MA.

Only time will tell.

 

[explod]

Just waiting for the kiddies to finish with their games - at least they are predictable, letting everyone play their short game at the same time of day so we can get some sleep

It's hit my lower channel line here (post 6434) so see if it holds or it needs more time to consolidate sideways or lower?

Yep and a new game just arrived is the spreading of rumours

Two rumors are starting to move around through the gold chat rooms. I wanted to give you a heads up so you can be prepared to quickly inform the community about them as you see fit. Both rumors have potential to shock weak gold holders into selling.


Volcker replaces Timmy. This could lead to a kneejerk gold selloff (based on the past) and equity volatility in both directions.
A gold exchange traders fund may have been holding bogus gold bars which have been fabricated by China. This piggybacks some phony Chinese gold coins that have shown up through an article in coin world. This would supposedly cause a selloff in GLD, therein frightening the community.

If the US$880 support holds (the uptick channel from end of Oct 08) then the current round of news should see the new high not far away.

Maybe very quiet at times, but always alert and wary.

cheers explod

 

[solomon]

From: http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={3995BA80-B185-4D12-80D5-0F560285A487}

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The Bank of England on Thursday cut its key lending rate to an all-time low of 0.5% from 1%, and said it would begin buying assets worth up to 75 billion pounds in an effort to boost the money supply. End of Story

I think governments are getting the message that people are getting pretty pissed at all the money they are plunging into black holes and bankers' pockets. As a consequence they will move to the far less obvious and far more destructive measure of massively inflating the money supply. So I'm now seeing how the POG could very well be multiple times its current price in the next few years. But no doubt it will be a very bumpy ride! You could say I've seen the golden light.

 

[Glen48]

From Gary Gibson:
What’s going on? It’s a worldwide trend. Investors have been flocking to gold and silver. There’s a money migration going on. And I mean BIG money is migrating. It’s like those herds of zebras or wildebeests or gazelles in Africa. When they migrate, the earth shakes and the ground is just a moving kaleidoscope of hides and footprints. The dust clouds blow high into the sky.
Yes, the world economy might be in a recession. People across the world are worried about their job and security for their family. But other people with big bucks are scooping up gold and silver. Those buyers are looking for investment safety.
Moneyed investors don’t trust the world’s governments or paper currencies. So they are going with gold and silver. The mines and mints are having trouble keeping up with demand. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs like, for example, SPDR Gold Shares, GLD are buying huge volumes of gold and silver. (And they ought to be buying more. At the margins, at least, it appears that even the ETFs are holding “paper” gold rights, as opposed to the real McCoy metal.)
Who’s Holding the Metal?
Let’s look at silver. In January 2006, the total silver held in ETFs was about 40 million ounces. By January of this year, 2009, the total silver in ETFs exceeds 280 million ounces. That’s an increase by a factor of seven in just three years.

The story with gold is just as dramatic. Who ever heard of a gold ETF until just a few years ago? But by the end of 2008, gold holdings of ETFs reached a record level of 1,090 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Thus, ETF holdings now exceed those of Switzerland and many other large and important nations. (Check the listing below.) In the fourth quarter of 2008, investors purchased ETF gold interests representing 96 tonnes of gold. (Far more than the total gold reserves of Australia.) This followed the purchase of an unprecedented 145 tonnes (more than the reserves of Saudi Arabia) in the previous quarter, according to the WGC. These are astonishing levels of demand, where there was almost none just a few years ago.
Gold seems to know what President Obama’s plan will do to the dollar…
Over the next two years, you’ll witness the greatest surge in gold prices in market history, at least 100% above where gold sits today, as I write this.
But… I’ve just discovered a way for you to sneak into the soaring gold market for next to nothing, with what I call “penny-per-ounce” gold.
Gold Holding and Gold Hoarding
Much of the gold in the vaults of the worlds’ central banks has accumulated over many decades. Much of the U.S. government gold reserve, for example, dates from the national gold confiscation of 1933 under President Franklin Roosevelt. Roosevelt had a compliant Congress to do his bidding. Eventually, even the Supreme Court backed him up. So what’s that old expression? “It CAN happen here.”
Many other countries of the world are currently buying gold, fresh from the mine. Today, China is the world’s largest gold-producing nation, and its central bank is buying and building reserves. Russia, too, has a tradition of holding gold and today is acquiring gold from its own mine output and via purchases on international markets. Or look at tiny Qatar, a small nation in the middle of the Persian Gulf. Qatar had only 8 tonnes of gold about three years ago. Now it has 12 tonnes, an increase of 50% in a very short time. What do the Chinese, the Russians or the Qataris know? They know that they want gold. They can buy it. They will hold it. And they are hoarding it.
I won’t be surprised to see $3,000 gold.
Coins and ingots are the kinds of things you keep in your bank safe deposit box or in a well-hidden home safe. Some people keep them in their “second” home safe. Why a second safe? Well, the first safe is the one with a few hundred bucks of cash and some good-looking costume jewelry in it. You would open the first safe if a Rob broke into your house and held a gun to your head. (Sorry, I’m not kidding. We live in a tough world.)

And for as much as I urge you to own some gold or ingots, you should never talk about it. OK, you might tell a few family members or maybe a trusted friend or two. But the fact that you have a stash of real gold is too valuable to broadcast or advertise. As I said above, “It CAN happen here.” It already has happened here. It might happen again, if things get too rough out there.

For all the talk in Washington about getting the national economy back on track and spending under control, I think you still need to keep an eye on gold and silver. Get some. Own some. Hold some.

Until we meet again,
Byron W. King

 

[Trembling Hand]

Glen who the hell is Gary Gibson??

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Volcker? Who cares? Let him try & put interest rates up in this climate, which was his greatest claim to inflation taming fame? All central bankers & treasuries have been effectively emasculated by their zero bound interest rates now, and the Oz bobble heads can cut but will the banks pass it on?

The 'velocity' of the gold price action the last few days suggested waning selling pressure and it looks to have bounced off the support nicely.

Scrap sales - eventually that too will fail to suppress - it's all about fiat money destruction/debasement on a global scale now?

 

[GumbyLearner]

From: http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={3995BA80-B185-4D12-80D5-0F560285A487}

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The Bank of England on Thursday cut its key lending rate to an all-time low of 0.5% from 1%, and said it would begin buying assets worth up to 75 billion pounds in an effort to boost the money supply. End of Story

I think governments are getting the message that people are getting pretty pissed at all the money they are plunging into black holes and bankers' pockets. As a consequence they will move to the far less obvious and far more destructive measure of massively inflating the money supply. So I'm now seeing how the POG could very well be multiple times its current price in the next few years. But no doubt it will be a very bumpy ride! You could say I've seen the golden light.

Print in print :xmaswave

The Bank of England is to pump out 75 billion pounds sterling ($163.43 billion) of newly-printed money after slashing interest rates to a record-low 0.5% in a twin-pronged attack on the global credit crunch.

In an extraordinary bid to free Britain from its first recession in 18 years, the BoE said it would issue the equivalent of $US106 billion or 84 billion euros via so-called "quantitative easing" measures.

http://business.theage.com.au/busin...to-print-money--75b-pounds-20090306-8q8y.html

 

[electronicmaster]

Oh boy.

 

[sinner]

Sorry electronicmaster, can't view those videos at work!

Here is Mish latest on gold and HUI.

A prominent (and so far correct) deflationist bullish on gold. He also meets Trembling Hands "money where your mouth is" criteria in terms of those that not only called the slump but profited him and his clients from it.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/03/gold-hui-looking-good.html

In a deflation, purchasing power (money) is king. Gold is money, according to Mish.

 

[GumbyLearner]

The Inconvenient Debt

 

[sinner]

Hi guys,

I have been up all night on shift and still cannot make my mind up on gold for the week.

A couple of days ago we reached the point I explained earlier. Bottom of the boll band, the 50MA and the psychologically important 900 level providing support for a (so far) small bounce. This has also generated a nice signal on the stochastic (assuming there is no damage to the chart in the next few hours).

The moving averages are starting to converge and are somewhat close to generating a buy signal for my discretionary gold trading strategy. However, it all is not sitting right with me, and beginning to feel very nervous about gold. I will not be trading gold next week and have already minimised my positions to only very long term buys as of last week.

We have moved up too far too fast and now what was clear to me since October has become murky.

The HUI is also at a crucial juncture right now. We already broke below the 50MA. I unfortunately doubt we will close above it tonight (even though there has been some strong moves up by the miners today, there is obviously strong selling pressure above the 50MA!), which could indicate the beginnings of a long term bearish trend. This is confirmed as the HUI continues to underperform gold.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Hi guys,

I have been up all night on shift and still cannot make my mind up on gold for the week.

A couple of days ago we reached the point I explained earlier. Bottom of the boll band, the 50MA and the psychologically important 900 level providing support for a (so far) small bounce. This has also generated a nice signal on the stochastic (assuming there is no damage to the chart in the next few hours).

The moving averages are starting to converge and are somewhat close to generating a buy signal for my discretionary gold trading strategy. However, it all is not sitting right with me, and beginning to feel very nervous about gold. I will not be trading gold next week and have already minimised my positions to only very long term buys as of last week.

We have moved up too far too fast and now what was clear to me since October has become murky.

The HUI is also at a crucial juncture right now. We already broke below the 50MA. I unfortunately doubt we will close above it tonight (even though there has been some strong moves up by the miners today, there is obviously strong selling pressure above the 50MA!), which could indicate the beginnings of a long term bearish trend. This is confirmed as the HUI continues to underperform gold.

Look sinner I hope you don't get rid of all your holdings. But you sound like the kind of guy who should hold onto them! If that's not the case, THE BAD NEWS IS OVER!

 

[sinner]

Look sinner I hope you don't get rid of all your holdings. But you sound like the kind of guy who should hold onto them! If that's not the case, THE BAD NEWS IS OVER!

Hi GumbyLearner,

I have said it before and will say it again. What the hell do you know or are you talking about? Where do you even get your information from? Is it all sourced directly from Youtube nuts?

Gold has managed to save the gold bugs from themselves, despite their own stupidity.

Not you or any of the other goldbugs can explain why gold has been going up in price nor provide any valid reasoning for any such explanation. Until last month the lot of you were screaming hyperinflation is on its way. We hear talk of currency debasement but the USD continues to rise with gold. Gold is not rising and falling based on the indices or anything else that you claim.

I was trying to show people since I signed up to this site, how gold and the USD were not inversely correlated. This has turned out to be true since September but none of the gold bugs have anything to say about this or how it fits into their predictions for 4 digit gold.

They hold onto gold and their pre-crash arguments of why it is so great, even though these arguments have been invalidated for months now. In any other market, this would have left you all at a serious cash loss. Luckily gold has risen for other reasons (which I have tried to highlight many times now), and saved you from your own stupidity.

Why don't you explain to us all why I should take your advice and not sell my gold (even though I never said I was going to)?

 

[explod]

Hi GumbyLearner,

I have said it before and will say it again. What the hell do you know or are you talking about? Where do you even get your information from? Is it all sourced directly from Youtube nuts?

Gold has managed to save the gold bugs from themselves, despite their own stupidity.

Fair bit of arrogance there on your part as well Sinner. The gold bugs I know have been following a very good trend from 2002. Short term stuff is not on many radar screens.

Not you or any of the other goldbugs can explain why gold has been going up in price nor provide any valid reasoning for any such explanation. Until last month the lot of you were screaming hyperinflation is on its way. We hear talk of currency debasement but the USD continues to rise with gold. Gold is not rising and falling based on the indices or anything else that you claim.

And we can, gold is going up due to currency debasement. The US dollar (at this time) is going up due to repatriation, margin calls and percieved safe haven (due to Wall Street jawboning, you sound a bit like them sometimes) buying and Asia, particularly China trying to protect thier trade and now just the treasuries they hold.

Two recent gold spikes and the most recent, Thursday and Friday gold went up due to the stockmarkets collapsing.

I was trying to show people since I signed up to this site, how gold and the USD were not inversely correlated. This has turned out to be true since September but none of the gold bugs have anything to say about this or how it fits into their predictions for 4 digit gold.

We do not need to be shown, we can all make our own choices and we like to read what everyone has to say without being too critical, that is how we help each other. Sometimes of course we awake from slumber to stick up em, so to speak. In my humble opinion the rise of the US dollar, particularly since as you say September last year is an abberation created by fear that will when it changes cause the US dollar to plunge much faster than it has risen (just like the Dow is) based on fundamentals, the US is broke and there is no productive value behind their economy anymore.

They hold onto gold and their pre-crash arguments of why it is so great, even though these arguments have been invalidated for months now. In any other market, this would have left you all at a serious cash loss. Luckily gold has risen for other reasons (which I have tried to highlight many times now), and saved you from your own stupidity.

And my oath I am holding onto my gold, you try to buy it now, mine accumulated (since 2004 onwards) easily straight over the counter on the day (mind you) Here in Aus they will only sell it now in overpriced one ounce coins. And the pre-crash arguments; HOW HAVE THEY BEEN INVALIDATED ?

Why don't you explain to us all why I should take your advice and not sell my gold (even though I never said I was going to)?

WHO IS GIVING ADVICE ? it is illegal to do so here in Aus unless you are trained and licensed to do so. Dont' be trapped by our sometimes vehement arguments for our particular stance which has nothing to do with giving advice. And if you have gold to sell there will be plenty of takers well above the phoney comex rate.

Cheers on this wonderful Sunday

explod

 

[Glen48]

WHO IS GIVING ADVICE ? it is illegal to do so here in Aus unless you are trained ..
Of course this doesn't apply to R E agents who can saddle you up with 100's K of debt...the only reason the USD is strong is because the rest are falling in a heap but the USD can't keep strong for ever if/ when G E folds 300K workers loose their jobs, GM thousands more if ever Gold was to go up it has to be this depression.
Next few weeks should tell...if no call me back and I will eat humble pie