Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Uncle Festivus · 11 February 2009

....and...you'll soon be able to buy gold directly from gold companies...at least one I have shares in will offer 1oz bars for sale.....

If the open interest is anything to go by I think the $1K peak reaction bear market for gold has finally worked it's way through the system? With stimulus packages yet to 'show us the money' doubt is growing over whether the CB maestros can pull a big rabbit out of their big, stretched hats, or will end up busking at the local railway station

Ageo · 11 February 2009

Uncle Festivus said:
....and...you'll soon be able to buy gold directly from gold companies...at least one I have shares in will offer 1oz bars for sale.....

Yep thats what we have been in talks with so far, and some are looking at instead of refining the bars the mining companies are looking at removing the quartz (special machine) and other non precious metals and selling it as alluvial.

Its much faster and free's up alot of cash.

Phillip · 11 February 2009

explod said:
From Jim Sinclair's site this morning.

I am not a Sinclair fan, I think he is abit of a goose.

He has been getting it wrong for best part of the past year. Hugh Hendry has his finger on the pulse.

explod · 11 February 2009

Phillip said:
I am not a Sinclair fan, I think he is abit of a goose.

He has been getting it wrong for best part of the past year. Hugh Hendry has his finger on the pulse.

I agree but it was from his site, Dan Norcini, who does know his stuff.

In fact my own leads came from quite a number of books by economists from about 2004. Many of them called it too early but the fundamentals were correct and have therefore kept me on the right track. In fact from 2004 Paul Van Eaden (not one of the above but a newsletter, find him on Kitco) has been spot on. Again it has been the Austrian fundamentals as apposed to Keynesian from a philosophical stance, dont' ask for an explanation of all that, two years reading.

You will note I contribute mush less than I used to because a proper explanation takes pages. You need to do your own research but this entire thread if read will provide all the answers you will ever need.

Wall street fell as gold rose this morning which is a big departure from the recent trend in action. The dow is but a whisper from its five year low and a fall tonight could see a bloodbath. If that plays out gold may go to $US 950. The US dollar too has become very volatile in tha last few days. It is trying to follow gold and if the two depart tonight with gold up then it will be very bullish indeed.

Having said all that I still think the big train will not leave till March 09

cheers explod

Glen48 · 11 February 2009

IMO it looks like the bail out Mk. 1111.2 is a dud and wall street see it the same way therefore the USD must take a hit and B.O. has fired his first and last shot.
USA have to get the bailout passed and then find the loot to spend, I think China and the rest are out of spending money and looking for a bailout themselves.
What will take over from the USD I can only assume will be Gold.
I think this will be the start of the big one and we are now entering the next stage of the crash or 09

Glen48 · 11 February 2009

From GFT:
[GOLD] remains close to session highs at Usd 916 after a narrow range o/nite. Continued press reports of investors piling into bullion and coin - the US mint sales of its American Eagle up 400% y/y in Jan, while flows into Gold ETFs in Jan hit a record - SPDR ETF bullion holding have hot yet another daily record. Mkt talk that fund profit taking weighing on the upside - IMM accounts built up hefty net longs in the latest reporting week (ad up over 25% in 2W) and chatter that Usd 933 would have to break for the next spurt higher

Page · 11 February 2009

Gold will remain up. There are news in the market as it can come down in some days or months.

nunthewiser · 11 February 2009

Page said:
Gold will remain up. There are news in the market as it can come down in some days or months.

uh?

Glen48 · 11 February 2009

Nunthewiser Nunthewiser?

nunthewiser · 11 February 2009

Glen48 said:
Nunthewiser Nunthewiser?

Im a nun not a translator

Glen48 · 11 February 2009

sinner · 12 February 2009

Hi guys,

It has been almost a fortnight since we came close to challenging resistance.

The current daily bar is slightly lower than the previous attempt on 30th of Jan. After which we bounced nicely off the previous channel peak at 891 to get to where we are.

The daily RSI and stochastic are both calling for lower prices, and the weekly stochastic has hit previous highs and gone flat after a long leg up.

Not sure what to expect here really. How long can this channel keep up?

amory · 12 February 2009

"How long can this channel keep up?"

as long as the Dow & the USDollar keep going down. the Dollar being the more important one of the two.

sinner · 12 February 2009

Yibbede-yibbede, that's all folks! Just a hair under 944 before retracing.

SP500 and DJIA both up from yesterdays close. USDJPY at 90.

Break up from here would be rediculously bullish, and a bit too fast for my liking. Unfortunately hitting the upside of the channel so quickly leaves not much room but down!

Let's all be grateful for a higher high on the weekly

5min chart:

Wysiwyg · 12 February 2009

How bizarre.First trade for awhile and soon as i entered short at 925 (within 2 minutes) gold took off to 945 +.How bizarre.
(listening for giggles )

Glen48 · 12 February 2009

Keep up the good work. Thanks

Uncle Festivus · 12 February 2009

LONDON, Feb 11 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said it does not intend to alter plans to sell just over 400 tonnes of gold to fund changes to its financing base, an IMF spokeswoman said on Wednesday.
A recent surge in IMF lending to countries facing balance of payments crises related to the global economic slowdown and financial turmoil has led analysts to question whether the Washington-based institution will proceed with the plan.

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=750248

Now the gooses are selling the golden eggs in return for IOU noughts. Transferring wealth to those glad to oblige no doubt. Is it that simple or are they setting us up for an almighty fall when the time is right? Gold is now, more than ever, a competitor to fiat stimulus currency and so takes away the effectiveness of the priming efforts ie put that money into consuming nik naks from China instead of gold.

"Gold is now being sought as the best alternative to cash," said Kaname Gokon, deputy general manager at Okato Shoji Co.
"The correction is set to be short-lived as buying from long-term investors is expected on any dips," he said, adding that gold was seen well supported at $920-$930.
The holdings of SPDR, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 40.37 tonnes, or 4.5 percent, to a record 935.09 tonnes on Feb. 11. [GOL/SPDR]
They have climbed by more than 150 tonnes since the beginning of the year, and traders said long-term investors who usually pay little attention to day-to-day price movements were behind the jump.
Just as demand has increased for long-dated U.S. Treasury debt, investors are shifting their focus to gold and gold-backed securities amid worries over the effectiveness of the latest rescue plan for the U.S. financial industry.

Still, ride the golden bull for all it's worth - interesting times for humanity?

explod · 12 February 2009

Uncle Festivus said:
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=750248

Now the gooses are selling the golden eggs in return for IOU noughts. Transferring wealth to those glad to oblige no doubt. Is it that simple or are they setting us up for an almighty fall when the time is right? Gold is now, more than ever, a competitor to fiat stimulus currency and so takes away the effectiveness of the priming efforts ie put that money into consuming nik naks from China instead of gold.

Still, ride the golden bull for all it's worth - interesting times for humanity?

Yep, Kitko headline this morning, :"Gold at 7 month high" and straight under that "IMF to sell 400 tonnes of gold" Nadler trots something like that out every time there is an up tick. In fact the way physical is being absorbed now any amount of gold dumps are being taken very quickly.

Some predictions (note I do not make them myself, though got it close last night he he) to ponder.

Alf Fields:
Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);
Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);
Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);
Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

Martin Armstrong:
A major high is possible as early as 2010-2011 with the potential for an exponential rally into 2015 if there is any kind of a low going into 2011.

Still dashed pleased with my LGL trade so far.

Nick Radge · 12 February 2009

explod,
Just checking - that's the same Marty Armstrong jailed for fraud and theft of investor money?

So_Cynical · 12 February 2009

^^^^
Posting in the Gold thread Nick...does that mean the trendy's are getting aboard?

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Uncle Festivus

Ageo

Phillip

explod

explod

Glen48

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Glen48

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Page

nunthewiser

Glen48

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sinner

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amory

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Glen48

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Uncle Festivus

explod

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Nick Radge

So_Cynical

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