The daily chart hasn't even breached the last Lower Low yet and is yet to make a Higher High.
Needs to break $930 to get bullish.
I'm no T/A guru, far from it, but a little voice in the back of my head keeps saying "gaps get filled" and on a long term AUD gold price chart there's a very noticeable gap around $1000.
I can follow all the fundamental arguments, but the chart in AUD has me thinking that maybe there's a dip coming and that would be a better time to add to positions? Or have I got it all wrong? I'm no chart expert as I said.
This from Money & Markets if true should push Gold up???
But just to give you a sense of the magnitude of the problem, Bank of America and Citigroup's combined credit default swaps are more than sixty times larger than the $90 billion they've received so far in capital infusions from the Treasury Department.
My conservative prediction - $US1000 $AU2000 gold by at least August 09, gold equities to be ahead of the gold price by several multiples?[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]AMERICANS are bracing for more bad news this week, when data will probably show that the US economy shrank by an annualised 5 to 5.5 per cent in the last three months of 2008, the biggest contraction in decades. [/FONT]
Good morning everyone, I only woke up an hour ago!
The Reuters Precious Metals Survey 2009 results are out:
Looking at your chart, the last pivot low was at around $800, so we are no where close to it... but we have made a higher high by passing $885. So starting from $670, we clearly have an uptrend of higher lows and higher highs.. a good consolidation / pullback under $930 should see more upside
Sorry, I mean Lower High not LL.
We are still yet to breach the last Lower High, real HH's are yet to be made.
Interested to see how it goes tonight.
In my opinion they probably can't stop the trend reversal now, they will be
"exporting deflation" for a long time to come, and this will mean a strong USD whether they like it or not.
By Pham-Duy Nguyen
Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to the highest closing price in almost five months in New York on speculation that government spending will spur inflation, boosting demand for the precious metal as a hedge. Silver also gained.
Disagreed with you sinner but thought I would let the news talk.
The waning interest in US T bonds (no yield and the growing debt making them look risky going forward) is making the $US dollar look very dodgy too.
By Pham-Duy Nguyen
Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to the highest closing price in almost five months in New York on speculation that government spending will spur inflation, boosting demand for the precious metal as a hedge. Silver also gained.
Well if the comex price should follow the physical then perhaps we will see a push to $2000AU p/o as bullion houses around the world cannot keep up with demand. I was with a customer the other day when a gentleman walked right in and asked for $400,000 worth of bullion.
Anything less than 1100AU p/o is considered a bargain now in the physical world. (Even if it tanks like it did back in October).
Gold attracts more flows amid recession
Wed Jan 28, 2009 9:29am GMT
By Frank Tang and Jennifer Ablan
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold, the traditional safe haven in times of economic turmoil, proved to be more a commodity that everyone loved to hate last year even amid the turbulence that engulfed world markets.
But as 2009 gets under way the yellow metal has found huge traction with money managers.
In the last eight sessions, gold has rallied as much as $100 (70 pounds) an ounce to hit a near four-month high of $915.30 on Monday ”” in spite of a rising dollar.
The furious rally in the bullion stems from expectations that the U.S. government will need to borrow about $2 trillion of debt this year to finance its rescue packages for the battered banking sector. Already, outstanding Treasury debt stood at $5.5 trillion at the end of September.
Against this backdrop, investors are largely shunning everything from U.S. Treasuries to stocks, which are down 10 percent and 7.5 percent so far this year, respectively, while pouring cash into gold.
"I think gold is rising because of fiscal deterioration and the prospect that the U.S. may be downgraded," said Tom Sowanick, chief investment officer for $22 billion in assets at Clearbrook Financial LLC in Princeton, New Jersey.
Even the bond market has finally figured this one out – as lousy as the economic data gets (did you see that new home sales hit a 14 year low according to today’s data release) the bonds still cannot muster much of an upward move. Traders there are slowly coming to realize that bonds are not such a “safe haven” when the feds are multiplying them faster than ACORN can register non-existent or dead voters. Bond traders rightly fear a tidal wave of supply that is going to overwhelm whatever demand still exists for them.
The bond chart has turned absolutely horrendous with today’s sell off breaching a short term support level which had emerged near the 128 ^15 level. There looks to be nothing in the way of technical chart support until down near the 100 day moving average at 125 ^08. About the only thing that the bond bulls have going for them is the extremely oversold level but that is not a lot to hang your hat on once sentiment shifts, especially in a market that had blown up into a bubble of cosmic proportions. Tomorrow’s weekly and monthly close in the bonds will be significant.
All of this contributed to gold’s rise from support – if bonds are no longer safe havens then where can one go with their wealth to protect it from the depredations being inflicted upon it by Central Bankers and ignorant politicians. Answer - Gold. Pause here as the camera pans in closer to zoom in on the bullions coins I am holding in my hand and then pans back out so that you can see the 800 telephone number to phone so that you can purchase some gold and pay for the cost of the advertisement.
The Bond market is the one to watch now.
Posted: Jan 30 2009 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: January 30, 2009 at 3:47 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
Dear CIGAs,
Gold buying accelerated as Europe opened for trading in the overnight hours here in the States with the currency crisis the main factor propelling European based gold prices sharply higher. Paper is definitely OUT in Europe and metal is in. I suppose what is so revealing about this is that is marks an abrupt reversal from a pattern that has been seen for most of the better part of the entire near-9 year bull market in gold. Asian buying would take the metal higher whereupon the return of Europe based traders to their desks, it would be summarily derailed around the 2:00 AM CST period. What is happening now is that the price is accelerating higher near or about this hour. It has become obvious that a sea-change in sentiment towards the yellow metal has occurred in Europe and particularly in Britain. With no where to put money for a safe haven as bonds become suspect, gold is seeing significant hedge fund activity which is beating back the incessant selling by the bullion banks. That buying drove Gold priced in Euro terms to another brand new, all-time high for the London PM Fix at €715.620. Euro gold has taken out €700, quite a significant feat! So much for the deflationists’ arguments…
Once trade moved into New York, the bullion banks resurfaced in force and attempt to stem the tide. Today they initially showed their hand near and above the $920 level. Their footprint is more than obvious for those who can read price charts. However, in what must have been quite a stunner to these bullies of the sand box, they were beaten back out of their castle as the bulls pushed right through their picket lines. They have been feverishly attempting to stem the rise near $920 as failure means the highs made back in September-October last year around the $940 level would then be in play. If those give way, $1000 is a given and they know it.
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