Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[cuttlefish]

NCM and LGL both looking interesting lately.

 

[explod]

LOL, as usual willing to take a "Guru's" facts as gospel although they are without exception WRONG. I don't give a toss whether it goes to $300 or $3000 explod but if someone REPEATEDLY states something that is wrong I will repeatedly point it out.



Just LOL!!

And respect that. I just do not see where it is fundamentally wrong. Though he qualifies, that it is just his view, and that is my stance. But you uneqivically (can you spell that for me) say WRONG. I would appreciate some qualification. There are shades of grey i think, and sure as hell prefer to hold gold than US T Bonds which are near zero yield, anyway we shall see.

cheers explod

 

[Trembling Hand]

What I am referring to is this conspiracy of the open interest is larger than the holding of gold. Or that there is more contracts than deliverable gold.

Its not a conspiracy. That's how futs work. They are not backed by physical or they don't have to be.

For example yesterday the open interest on the SPI increased by 5000 contracts. That was not followed by the issuing of some extra $450 mil of shares? The open interest in a fut has nothing to do with the underlying asset. Obviously the larger the asset the larger the open interest will be but there is no need for a direct link like the Gold bug guru's keep using as evidence of manipulation.

Its just mischievous at best or as I see it down right misleading and dangerous "information".

As for the actual direction of gold to me its still in a nasty down-trend. That's all I know

 

[Whiskers]

Hi All,

Below is a snap of our Gold index the XDJ which needs no further comment.

Bankit

'A break above the green line and we are off'... after extending my ESP and 'L' plate EW last night, I'm also still leaning to the northern trajectory in the short to med term... but if my count is right, or at least partly right, the little diag triangle suggests a max of 871 for leg v of 1.

But that would be ok... wave 2 retrace a little before 3 attacks the high again.

 

[rub92me]

Looks like it's trying to break out chartwise. Knocked back once; a 'bad economic news day' in the US today may push it over the line.

 

[hotbmw]

i saw this question in an old thread that no one answered. i have the same question. your opinions please guys:

Hi, i'm fairly new to this stuff (and new to this forum ) but after doing a bit of reading (namely crash proof by Peter Schiff, http://www.chrismartenson.com/crash-course and various other web sources) I subscribe to the view that the USD is in serious trouble in the not too distant future will crash under the U.S. debt burden and the actions of the fed. As a result I have become interested in gold as an investment.

Say, after a short period of deflation, high inflation and possibly hyperinflation takes hold in the US. US citizens would no doubt be climbing over each other to get their hands on physical gold in an effort to preserve their wealth causing the price of gold to sky rocket. However, at the same time the rapidly weakening USD would depreciate substantially against the AUD. So while gold is increasing in USD, USD are worth less in Australian dollars.

So my question is this - assuming the above scenario does in fact happen would an Australian that was already holding gold realise a good return on their investment or would the weakness of the USD in terms of the AUD essentially wipe out any gains?

I assume that if the price of gold is rising in real terms its gains will outweigh any currency risk ie the nominal rise in gold in the US will outweigh the decline in the USD making it a worthwhile investment for Australians. Is this the case or am I completely off base? Hopefully I explained it ok.

I'd appreciate the thoughts and comment of those that are wiser and more knowledgeable than myself

Thank You!

 

[Sean K]

Could POG just have made a higher low bouncing off the $750/60 ish support zone?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Could POG just have made a higher low bouncing off the $750/60 ish support zone?

Its still in that down trend. You would like it to break that first then make a Higher low on a retracement.

But will give it to the Bugs....... interesting point in time for POG. :robot2:

 

[explod]

Its still in that down trend. You would like it to break that first then make a Higher low on a retracement.

But will give it to the Bugs....... interesting point in time for POG. :robot2:

Gold needs a close above US$830 before we can get too excited. Bullish signs are the rise of the HUI index in the last week or so. The US dollar index is sitting on support as we speak, a drop of a half percent in the next day or so will also be bullish for gold. The Dow rose this morning, for some time the Comex and the Dow have been in tandem. If you look at the daily chart for the Dow the last few days are candle tails up which often precipitates a fall. This on recent performance will bring the gold price down too.

Still say our big day in the sunshine will not happen till March next year.

Intersting days indeed.
Cheers explod

 

[bankit]

Hi Kennas,

I find that when we have a genuine move coming up in Spot Gold, gold stocks move up higher with increased volume prior to a move in Spot gold and this is evidenced in the update of yesterdays close in the XGD chart below.


Bankit.

 

[sinner]

Hi guys,

This is a link all those interested in the December COMEX gold shenanigans should have bookmarked...

http://meltdown2011.wordpress.com/category/silver-gold/vaporize-comex-countdown/

A sample:

 

[Temjin]

Hi guys,

This is a link all those interested in the December COMEX gold shenanigans should have bookmarked...

http://meltdown2011.wordpress.com/category/silver-gold/vaporize-comex-countdown/

A sample:

Yeah, have been following it since day one. But I highly doubt COMEX will default anytime soon. Ted Butler and Casey have both indicated that it will not default unless there is a sudden increase in delivery demand from the long people. This wouldn't happen unless something extraordinary happen in the real world or some miracle organised event.

 

[sinner]

Hi Temjin,

I am certainly not proposing this will go one way or another. Just a good link for people who are interested to follow.

COMEX default definitely leans on the conspiracy goldbug fringe side of things.

Think it started with Max Keiser (who is definitely on that side of the line, appearing in interviews with noted nutter Alex Jones etc).

He at least provided a semi-reasonable possible explanation that those fed up with perceived gold price manipulation in the futures market (I think he specifically mentions pissed off Russians) would be making a highly leveraged play (i.e. everything they could throw) and asking for as soon as possible delivery.

As mentioned I have adopted a wait and see attitude mostly because my play on the market should pretty much be unaffected if it turns out wrong. But even Mish said he hopes it happens!

However, the fact that a COMEX default is even possible raises some interesting food for thought and discussion. It is my understanding that Barrick gold is in a similar position, attempting a $1bn capital raising venture or possible financing (I can't recall exactly) very recently as well as the recent natural disaster at one of their producers can't be good for the traditional COMEX bullion banks and their cronies.

We will soon know if there is a failure to deliver in December gold. I actually hope there will be!

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/no-fever-like-gold-fever-response.html

Landslide
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-12-06-papua-new-guinea-landslide_N.htm

Barrick "We're the world largest, can we have $1bn please?"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=avZfyIi72iK4&refer=canada

 

[Temjin]

Hi Temjin,

I am certainly not proposing this will go one way or another. Just a good link for people who are interested to follow.

COMEX default definitely leans on the conspiracy goldbug fringe side of things.

Think it started with Max Keiser (who is definitely on that side of the line, appearing in interviews with noted nutter Alex Jones etc).

He at least provided a semi-reasonable possible explanation that those fed up with perceived gold price manipulation in the futures market (I think he specifically mentions pissed off Russians) would be making a highly leveraged play (i.e. everything they could throw) and asking for as soon as possible delivery.

As mentioned I have adopted a wait and see attitude mostly because my play on the market should pretty much be unaffected if it turns out wrong. But even Mish said he hopes it happens!

However, the fact that a COMEX default is even possible raises some interesting food for thought and discussion. It is my understanding that Barrick gold is in a similar position, attempting a $1bn capital raising venture or possible financing (I can't recall exactly) very recently as well as the recent natural disaster at one of their producers can't be good for the traditional COMEX bullion banks and their cronies.


http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/no-fever-like-gold-fever-response.html

Landslide
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-12-06-papua-new-guinea-landslide_N.htm

Barrick "We're the world largest, can we have $1bn please?"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=avZfyIi72iK4&refer=canada

Interestingly, the Chinese government is also pissed off with the while how the US dollar is doing at the moment. They aren't stupid and certainly not stupid enough to announce their intentions publicy. They will be accumulating gold over time to diversify away from the USD Foreign Reserve holdings but in a way that would maximise their "return".

Comex have defaulted on nickel before, so there are no reasons why it wouldn't on gold if it comes to that. So I agree with the "wait and see what happens". But I am in the position to profit if they do default but doesn't hurt if they don't. Either way, it's not my main focus in the grand scheme of things anyway. (to me that is hehe)

 

[GumbyLearner]

Interestingly, the Chinese government is also pissed off with the while how the US dollar is doing at the moment. They aren't stupid and certainly not stupid enough to announce their intentions publicy. They will be accumulating gold over time to diversify away from the USD Foreign Reserve holdings but in a way that would maximise their "return".

Well heres a new announcement from China today, Temjin.

Interesting indeed

China to increase money supply in 2009

China said it wants to increase money supply by 17 percent in 2009 as part of new measures to keep the world's fourth-largest economy ticking over in the face of the global slowdown.

http://news.theage.com.au/world/china-to-increase-money-supply-in-2009-20081214-6y7c.html

 

[cuttlefish]

Nice action occurring lately in gold stocks. LGL, NCM and XGD have all made good breaks through the downtrend resistance line.

A few juniors starting to show some good moves as well on a combination of news and renewed interest in the gold sector.


If gold manages to get a run going it looks like the gold stocks will go along with it this time - they seem to be leading the gold price a bit at the moment.

 

[joeyr46]

Bankit
This is the same chart as yours but on a log scale be interesting to see which way it goes. If the log chart trendline stops it or not but not sure if volume is very encouraging yet although LGL has certainly broken it's downtrend line on bothnormal and log charts

 

[sinner]

Slightly longer term look (log chart), very consistent indicators on this one. If you had bought on break up through S and E 200 day MA and sold on break down following this chart you would be sitting pretty!

Worth watching this chart for the next few days/weeks, looks like we are approaching the break through area very rapidly with support signals from the MACD.

But we are not there yet, and slow stochastics seem to be playing a different game. (although if you examine a sustained peak in slow stochastic at beginning of 2002, we might see a repitition so this indicator is not nescessarily bearish).

 

[bankit]

Bankit
This is the same chart as yours but on a log scale be interesting to see which way it goes. If the log chart trendline stops it or not but not sure if volume is very encouraging yet although LGL has certainly broken it's downtrend line on bothnormal and log charts

Hi Joey,

I think we have a pretty good chance of seeing a good run in gold. In the past couple of months we have seen some great moves in our major producers with moves in excess of 70% in some stocks like SGX, NCM, BDG, LGL and DOM.

Bankit

 

[aleckara]

Well as of today Gold per ounce is worth more than platinum. People are very bullish on gold at the moment questioning the financial system and its integrity most probably.

Wonder how long it will stay this way.