Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[MRC & Co]

Exactly.

And that daily above is all LHs and LLs after a long uptrend. From memory, most times I see that pattern, on most timeframes, it always ends up falling off a cliff.

I think a similar pattern I described played out on the SPI today, funnily enough.

 

[explod]

The chart above shows overlapping waves and best count I can give it is A B C X A B now needs another low for C probably around $600 or so and then it might be time for a rally or if deflation really takes hold could go a lot lower imo
Also most of you seem bullish which is not good for a rally of any size
am not trying to say you are wrong just that when most people think something is going one way it usually goes the other

What you say seems to follow the paper market place itself. The following excerpt from Don Denarchi.

Technically, you could not get a more classic definition of a washout which is exhausting itself as both shrinking volume and collapsing open interest signal that this is NOT the beginning of a bear trend but rather a technical washout that is winding down. I especially like the fact that volume is so anemic – it indicates no particular enthusiasm for the downside but more of a general disgust type of trade. Every single technical analysis book that I have ever read over the years will tell the shorts to be very careful selling a market in which volume and open interest are falling off – you simply never know when the last long who is going to run has run – when they do, that is it and the shorts then lose since there is simply no one left to sell the market to. For now they are sitting pretty but I suspect many buyers are waiting in the wings and should this market move down to near the $730- $720 level in February, these will emerge and make their presence felt quite strongly. The risk/reward no longer favors the shorts at these levels. What do they have, maybe $60 on the downside at the absolute best?

Still, all things considered, even paper gold is holding very well compared to the carnage in the rest of the commodity markets. For instance, crude topped out near $150/ barrel. Today is dropped below $41. That is nearly a 73% price collapse. December corn hit $8.00 bushel this past summer. Today it broke below $3.00 – the first time in two years it has been below the $3.00 level. That is a price drop of 62%. Platinum peaked at over $2200/ounce earlier this year. Today it was trading at $790 – a drop of a “mere” 64%. Copper is 67% off its peak. Silver is down 56% off its best levels seen this year. Yet gold is only down 27% off its peak price. Even with all the paper selling at the Comex, gold has withstood the orgy of redemption related selling pretty doggone well. And we know that demand for the real deal, the actual yellow metal is phenomenal, paper games at the Comex notwithstanding.

February to March next year after the new US Pres. gets in is my view of the big action upside. Patience and a rest over the festive is the go for awhile.

 

[joeyr46]

What you say seems to follow the paper market place itself. The following excerpt from Don Denarchi.



February to March next year after the new US Pres. gets in is my view of the big action upside. Patience and a rest over the festive is the go for awhile.

The move doesn't look impulsive so volume should generally decrease and so should open interest only signal I ever saw from open interest was in trading range when it suddenly dropped or shot up and you could guarantee next move
If it dropped next move of size would be up and vice versa BUT it must be a trading range and it was not a timing signal followed it for some time
Usually if prices are going down open interest should decline as producers stop forward selling at lower prices but never managed to see when low would be as it is relative not definitive and conversely if the uptrend is strong open interest should rise as more producers lock in higher prices and commercials lock in today's prices before it rises too much Have seen a lot of other things written about open interest but most got it wrong an not tradeable (for me at any rate)

 

[explod]

"The Privateer" newsletter. written up by a brilliant independent economist has over the last few years given me great peace of mind and he is always spot on.

End of his Sat night gold report

In mid (northern) summer, we had a new entry on the table for the first time since Gold topped the $US 1000 level in March. On July 17, Gold rose to 103233 Yen. That was a new 2008 high for the metal in terms of the Japanese currency. Then the Fannie/Freddie bailout plan went to work. Three weeks ago, on October 8, with the announcement of co-ordinated interest rate cuts by SIX major world central banks (including the Fed), Gold hit new all time highs in terms of the Australian Dollar, the Euro and many other major world currencies. That situation was reversed with the onset of savage global deleveraging which is still going on. How much longer? Watch the US Dollar exchange rates. And watch US Treasury yields.

 

[bankit]

Hi All,

The attached is of interest and I would say particularly to the cycle analysts.

It does seem to tell a story

http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/flash_cycle.html

Bankit

 

[mazzatelli1000]

Hi mazzatelli. I'm pretty new to EW too.

Maybe I should have labled (1) as (a) and (2) as (b), as I am anticipating (for lack of other realistically foreseeable alternatives) an Expanded Flat for wave 3, consequently making the larger cycle a Diagonal Triangle where wave 4 would retrace most if not all of my anticaped wave 3 by late 2009 or 2010.

Of course, as I mentioned, if the latest low is a fifth wave down, we must be in the corrective abc now and ultimately headed lower still towards (I think roughly) mid 400's. I just can't imagine any circumstamce where that might happen, yet.

So, assuming that count isn't right it seems we're pretty much left with an Expanded Flat leading off the next leg 3... unless someone can enlighten us to another count alternative... or the ar*e falling right out of gold too in the near future.

Just goes to show that EW may not be for me
By applying counts I am forming a bias about what I want to see rather than what is on the chart.

Ahhh well, I would like your projections to happen...but the forecast deflation as mentioned by others might not let that come into fruitation

 

[amory]

Elliott Wave ... especially after completion of wave-5 ... offers any number of alternatives. inevitably, one of them will come to fruition & in hindsight, will look convincing & plausible. but only in hindsight.

don't know about gold, but certainly that's where the Dow & the XAO are now. hence the directionless uncertainty all over the place during the last week.

 

[bankit]

Hi All,

Following on from my posts of 22nd and 26th November about backwardation in gold, the following link RED ALERT: GOLD BACKWARDATION again emphasises the importance of this event.

I hope the information starts to sink in because we will not be warned by the mainstream media of the consequences, that is for sure.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/fekete120508.html

 

[joeyr46]

Just goes to show that EW may not be for me
By applying counts I am forming a bias about what I want to see rather than what is on the chart.

Ahhh well, I would like your projections to happen...but the forecast deflation as mentioned by others might not let that come into fruitation

Keep at it we all get it wrong or the alternate count happens but when it lines up and your right you can se were to place stops and how far the wave is likely to carry. I still see things with my personal bias but EW lets me know quickly when I'm wrong usually. and unfortunately there often several ways to count it as it is happening particularly if it is a corrective move But its like when you hit a golf ball right when you do get it right

 

[joeyr46]

Keep at it we all get it wrong or the alternate count happens but when it lines up and your right you can se were to place stops and how far the wave is likely to carry. I still see things with my personal bias but EW lets me know quickly when I'm wrong usually. and unfortunately there often several ways to count it as it is happening particularly if it is a corrective move But its like when you hit a golf ball right when you do get it right

I don't do that very often either

 

[Temjin]

Anyone seen this EW Gold Update?

http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1227596760.php

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);
Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);
Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);
Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

Of course, his wave counts could be wrong, but I couldn't imagine a world with gold price at $10k/oz. I'd rather not have that to happen because the world would be in a depressing state by then.

 

[explod]

Anyone seen this EW Gold Update?

http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1227596760.php



Of course, his wave counts could be wrong, but I couldn't imagine a world with gold price at $10k/oz. I'd rather not have that to happen because the world would be in a depressing state by then.

If Zimbabwe can mint 5 billion dollar notes who knows. Just depends how much substance/value is behind the instrument buying the ounce of gold I believe.

 

[amory]

unbelievable the amount of garbage being spewed out by way of scientific/well informed/technical POG projection! Not I hasten to add by any of the posters on this forum ... no I'm talking about the socalled experts ... on the one hand predicting gold to $10K, on the other collapse of gold along with other metals/commodities/minerals, the POG to scrape 600.

the only way to keep ones sanity in this environment is to watch carefully what the USdollar is doing (not too badly at the moment) and what shape the Flight into Security is taking ... mainly into Treasuries, gold taking a very cramped back seat.

how long for is anyone's guess, but until something does happen I would just as soon wait & see. one risk that is virtually non-existent: to be caught unawares ... there will be plenty of time to get in (or out) when the time comes. like with all forms of investment ... not necessarily at the precise top or bottom, but safely with an evolving trend ... notoriously absent in the POG at this precise point in time.

just my personal opinion FWIW

 

[bankit]

Hi All,

Below is a snap of our Gold index the XDJ which needs no further comment.

Bankit

 

[Sean K]

Hi All,

Below is a snap of our Gold index the XDJ which needs no further comment.

Bankit

Looks like NCMs last few months too. Interesting juncture.

 

[Temjin]

Another interesting article from Conard.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/109210-the-manipulation-of-gold-prices?source=article_sb_popular

This is a VERY GOOD READ. But I'm looking for a counter argument against his analysis.

 

[explod]

Another interesting article from Conard.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/109210-the-manipulation-of-gold-prices?source=article_sb_popular

This is a VERY GOOD READ. But I'm looking for a counter argument against his analysis.

This article sums up some of the matters that the economists I have followed of the last few years have been aware of.

A must read, copy and pass round. Well spotted Temjin

 

[Trembling Hand]

Funny how naked ........... whatever is always blamed by the people in love with their own ideas for falls/manipulation. Was a very interesting experiment when shorting was banned on the ASX and we tanked some 30%.

No futures contract in the world in any instrument, commodities, FX, Equity, weather is actually backed by supply. They are a price discovery and hedging product.

GOLD BUGS GET OVER IT!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or start complaining about how the weather is manipulated by the naked insurance shorts :

 

[explod]

Funny how naked ........... whatever is always blamed by the people in love with their own ideas for falls/manipulation. Was a very interesting experiment when shorting was banned on the ASX and we tanked some 30%.

No futures contract in the world in any instrument, commodities, FX, Equity, weather is actually backed by supply. They are a price discovery and hedging product.

GOLD BUGS GET OVER IT!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or start complaining about how the weather is manipulated by the naked insurance shorts :

Maybe the short of rain round here wots killing the hedge.

One day you will take all the credit for promoting gold T H, cant wait till about March 09.

Then maybe you have a point, good technical analysis is based on the past.

 

[Trembling Hand]

One day you will take all the credit for promoting gold T H, cant wait till about March 09.

LOL, as usual willing to take a "Guru's" facts as gospel although they are without exception WRONG. I don't give a toss whether it goes to $300 or $3000 explod but if someone REPEATEDLY states something that is wrong I will repeatedly point it out.



Just LOL!!