Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[bankit]

Some interesting points are made in this article.

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/investorsdigest/digest.pdf

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Unusually quiet on the gold front? $10-15 price range for 3 days now, and the Warwick Capper comes out at $850 like clockwork, after the caps earlier at $930 & $870? Bollinger bands must be getting close to touching now - imminent break out again?

Despite the contagion from the pleb shares, bargain hunters out in force in gold shares this arvo, some good bid volumes coming in eg NCM

I feel a geoplitical issue will make some sort of impact soon - not sure Pakistan & nuclear are a comfortable juxtaposition? Talk of Israel pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuke facilities before their US buddies are kicked out of Washington?

 

[bankit]

Obviously some people know what they are doing



Zurich Bank's Vault Is `Full to the Top' With Gold (Update1)

By Rachel Graham
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Zuercher Kantonalbank, the Swiss lender that manages about $107 billion, said its gold vault is full after a surge in demand from investors seeking a haven during the credit crunch.
Assets in the Zurich-based bank's ZKB Gold ETF, backed by about 2.66 million ounces of the metal, have risen to a record for seven consecutive weeks. That amount of gold is worth about $2.25 billion at today's prices and equal to about 12 days of global production.
``Demand is so strong,'' Susanne Toren, a metals analyst at the bank, said by telephone from Zurich today. ``Our vaults are full right up to the top.''
Investors are buying gold coins and bars, and exchange- traded funds backed by physical metal, after banks including Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed. Assets in SPDR Gold Trust, the largest ETF backed by bullion, advanced to a record 770.64 tons (24.78 million ounces) on Oct. 10.
Zuercher Kantonalbank, which is owned by the Canton of Zurich, also manages funds for silver, platinum and palladium. Sibylle Umiker, a spokeswoman for the bank in Zurich, confirmed the vault is full and said the company is looking for more space in Switzerland.
Rand Refinery Ltd., the world's largest gold refinery, in August said it ran out of South African Krugerrands. The Perth Mint, producer of 10 percent of the world's bullion, doubled output in the past six months. Muenze Oesterreich AG, the Austrian mint, increased production of its Philharmonic bullion coin almost fourfold.
The amount of gold held by nine ETFs and two closed-ended funds monitored by London-based researcher GFMS Ltd. reached a record 1,128.7 tons on Sept. 30, 25 percent more than at the end of last year.
To contact the reporter on this story: Rachel Graham in London at rgraham13@

 

[explod]

Coincidentally, a leaflet appeared in the mail box today which promotes a new 1 ounce silver coin being produced by the Perth mint, the cost of each coin, wait for it.........$82.50 each plus $6.50 ship and handling. In a nice case of course. With the official silver price of Aussie silver at $15.66 ,, that is not a bad cop.

Or are the Kitco charts telling the truth right now?

Interesting time for a gold bug indeed.

 

[chops_a_must]

Coincidentally, a leaflet appeared in the mail box today which promotes a new 1 ounce silver coin being produced by the Perth mint, the cost of each coin, wait for it.........$82.50 each plus $6.50 ship and handling. In a nice case of course. With the official silver price of Aussie silver at $15.66 ,, that is not a bad cop.

Or are the Kitco charts telling the truth right now?

Interesting time for a gold bug indeed.

They always sell at a massive premium.

The bullion silver coins were about 30 bucks when I last checked...

 

[Reealjrd]

Hello All,

It is true gold per ounze may reach 350-410 and the inflation rate might be effect greatly. The same can happen with the indian economy.

 

[kransky]

Hello All,

It is true gold per ounze may reach 350-410 and the inflation rate might be effect greatly. The same can happen with the indian economy.

gold per ounce is currently around $850 USD or $1300 AUD..

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

 

[bankit]

This guy has been waiting for gold to go up and he looks like I feel

 

[M34N]

Unusually quiet on the gold front? $10-15 price range for 3 days now, and the Warwick Capper comes out at $850 like clockwork, after the caps earlier at $930 & $870? Bollinger bands must be getting close to touching now - imminent break out again?

Despite the contagion from the pleb shares, bargain hunters out in force in gold shares this arvo, some good bid volumes coming in eg NCM

I feel a geoplitical issue will make some sort of impact soon - not sure Pakistan & nuclear are a comfortable juxtaposition? Talk of Israel pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuke facilities before their US buddies are kicked out of Washington?

Well there goes your $15 price range, down that amount right now

It's pretty funny, with this financial crisis, mess on the markets and fear all around, Bernanke talking about rate cuts, talk of inflation; but the 'safe haven' gold has gone hardly anywhere.

I'm a firm believer in gold because of these reasons, but it's still sitting there and, like right now, actually going down! What's it going to take to go up?

 

[barrett]

The H&S might bring a trading opportunity either way.
Gold stocks leading the way.. hopefully not...

Given that savings deposits are being protected by the Fed, the main driver for gold is still inflation.. but investors won't be too worried about inflation until the markets stabilise.. in the meantime they're more worried about "the return of their money than the return on their money".. so they buy treasury bonds for their guaranteed nominal value. It won't be until the markets stabilise that people will start to worry that treasury bonds are returning -7% or -8%pa. But gold's rise will come well before that time, since gold anticipates, rather than responds to, inflation - and generally does so about 9-12 months in advance. So I would say that selling long term holdings based on 'deflation fears' at this point would be a mistake.

I hold a lot of gold stocks, but I haven't bought any in over two years, because I expected some sort of collateral damage in between the credit cycle correcting itself and the central banks responding. I didn't think it would be this bad though... the US gold stocks have really been bashed into a pulp in the past two months. I think it will be time to buy soon but first let's see what happens on the chart... looking at the fundamentals for what next is useless in this lunacy!

 

[amory]

I have been saying for years ... elsewhere if not here ... that the Fed is only interested in the dollar. gold & the market can drop by the wayside, but the USdollar must be saved!

even the experts are beginning to realize the truth of this:

<< "Gold's fared relatively better than other assets in the financial crisis, but with price swings and central banks sales, some investors may prefer cash now,'' Wallace Ng, precious metals trader in Asia at Fortis Bank, said today by phone from Hong Kong. >>

Investors prefer cash, well what do you know? the worthless fiat-currency, not worth the paper its printed on, how many times have we heard that? say what you like about Bernanke & co, but the man in the street feels safe close to the Fed ... via the dollar.

and that's bad news for gold.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Well there goes your $15 price range, down that amount right now

It's pretty funny, with this financial crisis, mess on the markets and fear all around, Bernanke talking about rate cuts, talk of inflation; but the 'safe haven' gold has gone hardly anywhere.

I'm a firm believer in gold because of these reasons, but it's still sitting there and, like right now, actually going down! What's it going to take to go up?

Doh - would you believe $20 then .

It's all relative really - when compared to other stuff gold is not only holding it's ground (US DX) it's actually appreciating against all else! As Barrett says, gold will do it's thing in it's own time, when Joe Public realises that even US treasuries are not the place to park your life savings. China is starting to realise this now, having been sold a pup with Freddie & Fannie toxic sludge.

 

[Reealjrd]

Gold prices for now in forex will be uncertain. While in indian market they at their hike. Gold per ounze might come down to $750. As this condition might come seeing the US economial conditions.

 

[barrett]

I have been saying for years ... elsewhere if not here ... that the Fed is only interested in the dollar. gold & the market can drop by the wayside, but the USdollar must be saved!

even the experts are beginning to realize the truth of this:

<< "Gold's fared relatively better than other assets in the financial crisis, but with price swings and central banks sales, some investors may prefer cash now,'' Wallace Ng, precious metals trader in Asia at Fortis Bank, said today by phone from Hong Kong. >>

Investors prefer cash, well what do you know? the worthless fiat-currency, not worth the paper its printed on, how many times have we heard that? say what you like about Bernanke & co, but the man in the street feels safe close to the Fed ... via the dollar.

and that's bad news for gold.

Amory, your view may be right in the short term, but be aware that the US dollar has experienced a strong rally at the beginning of every global economic slowdown since 1971. This is nothing new. Nor is the propensity of governments to sacrifice the value of their currency when faced with unrepayable debts, as the US Fed and Treasury are doing now. I respect your view, but it's going to take more than a short US dollar rally in the midst of the biggest US dollar devaluation in history to prove it correct.

 

[Whiskers]

Yes, I think it's getting close to lifting off.

I think it looks like it has to go sub 819 again, maybe as low as 803/4 first... then 1,000 should be challenged pretty quickly.

Gessus... blink and it's gone... 797.

 

[Kauri]

Gold Price - Where is it heading? .... not sure... but it is going there in a hand cart...

Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[hitmanlam]

Looking at the charts, looks like 800 is the support for now. Its abit of a pschological one. If it drops to to under 785, the 750 is the major support and it'd should settle there.

 

[Whiskers]

Got a bit too much acceleration up and overshot me target a bit. Hope it don't do that again or I'll have to re-evaluate my analysis.

That must have been due to better than expected CPI and jobless claims, maybe.

Watch where this settles now and get set to go long... very long I hope.

 

[kransky]

That must have been due to better than expected CPI and jobless claims, maybe.

or maybe someone needing some cash?

 

[Whiskers]

or maybe someone needing some cash?

Yeah, was wondering that afterwards.

Gold, oil, base metals all went down but the USDX is up and looks like the US indicies are going up again.

I know... musta been the PPT dumping some gold etc to pump up the stocks... er buy into their banks cheap.