Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[nunthewiser]

I like gold.

The physical stuff though.

I have some hidden that I bought from the Perth Mint.

I've never traded it though.

I prefer the physical, its pretty and when things go to s**t its tradeable for things like food and fuel.

I guess it will follow the market inversely in the short term.

gg

gday m8.

I hold physical Gold also, bought last year and also hidden but guarded by a mean ole staffy with aids , not traded kept for a rainy day,
i also trade the stock GOLD and also hold stock in a small producer which is currently kicking me in the moosh

life goes on

cheers

 

[explod]

gday m8.

I hold physical Gold also, bought last year and also hidden but guarded by a mean ole staffy with aids , not traded kept for a rainy day,
i also trade the stock GOLD and also hold stock in a small producer which is currently kicking me in the moosh

life goes on

cheers

Me too, and though it maybe does not put the world on fire to the criteria of some high performers who post their brilliance here sometimes. However gold has more than held its own when most other things have fallen away.

Great insurance.

Since Matthey's closed here in Melbourne not sure of where I am going to dispose of mine when the times comes yet but sure the answer will soon come when everyone wants to buy it.

 

[rederob]

Me too, and though it maybe does not put the world on fire to the criteria of some high performers who post their brilliance here sometimes. However gold has more than held its own when most other things have fallen away.

Great insurance.

Since Matthey's closed here in Melbourne not sure of where I am going to dispose of mine when the times comes yet but sure the answer will soon come when everyone wants to buy it.

There is massive buying of physical precious metals, out of kilter with futures action.
The futures are subject to wide speculative swings, presently driven by funds needing cash counterbalanced against cashed up longs. I'm not sure how much more fund liquidation is probable, but the trend has a life span.
When gold price volatility declines considerably we will see a steady and sustained march north.
I think the speculators are mostly in their death throes on gold.

 

[nunthewiser]

There is massive buying of physical precious metals, out of kilter with futures action.
The futures are subject to wide speculative swings, presently driven by funds needing cash counterbalanced against cashed up longs. I'm not sure how much more fund liquidation is probable, but the trend has a life span.
When gold price volatility declines considerably we will see a steady and sustained march north.
I think the speculators are mostly in their death throes on gold.

like i said , mines for a rainy day , not intrested in the trading of the stuff , will stay buried with my dear ole nannas falsies and all the other bits and pieces that are sitting in the "armageddon " box

cheers

 

[Temjin]

Hmm..I did not expect this to happen SO SOON.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24476457-462,00.html

For some, gloom is good as gold


THANKS to the financial firestorm sweeping the globe, business in one niche of the Australian economy has never been better.


Gold bullion dealers around the country are reporting spectacular sales as investors flock from traditional forms of investment such as stocks and bonds into the "safe haven" of gold and silver bullion.



In one Sydney bullion house in the past week, a senior Westpac Bank manager walked in and bought nearly $300,000 of physical gold, equivalent at current prices to roughly 6.5kg of the metal.



The manager said he had made the decision after he saw many of his staff (investment advisers) converting their cash and other savings into gold.
Scary stuff.



The price of gold, of course, like shares and bonds, can also fluctuate wildly, but unlike shares, the investment can never just be wiped off the face of the earth overnight.



Regardless of the risks inherent with investing in commodities - in the past month the price has fluctuated between about $US740 and $US900 an ounce - gold is becoming the new black.





Lisa Casagrande, who in a former life was a champion striker for the Australian soccer team the Matildas, runs Gold and Silver Bullion Australia, located on the Gold Coast. She says that, in the past week or two, there has been a 60 to 70 per cent spike in business as people flee banks and share investment.



Currently, her business is shifting between 500 and 1000 ounces of gold bullion a day (1000 ounces is worth about $1.3 million at today's price).
Gold's sister metal is also in high demand. Casegrande maintains that "there is a lot of investment at the moment in silver bullion . . . so much so that a lot of the refineries have a 10-week waiting list".



The way people are buying has also changed.



Casegrande says: "A lot of the bigger investors are taking much larger amounts of bullion."

I was not expecting this type of news be out so early. So the number of contrarians have risen since the crisis started. It's a surprise that a lot of the mainstream advisers are now catching on the trend. It wouldn't be long until the general public start doing it. Day of reckoning soon???



The ranks of gold bug have increased quite significantly over the past few weeks.

 

[IFocus]

Hmm..I did not expect this to happen SO SOON.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24476457-462,00.html




I was not expecting this type of news be out so early. So the number of contrarians have risen since the crisis started. It's a surprise that a lot of the mainstream advisers are now catching on the trend. It wouldn't be long until the general public start doing it. Day of reckoning soon???



The ranks of gold bug have increased quite significantly over the past few weeks.

Temjin when I read this the thought when through my head to short gold

The manager said he had made the decision after he saw many of his staff (investment advisers) converting their cash and other savings into gold.
Scary stuff.

 

[nunthewiser]

Temjin when I read this the thought when through my head to short gold

Short this sucka as much as you want boys and girls .heck i,ll probably join ya .. BUT ...i will also be one of them ole skool wierdo,s that sitting there waiting to pick up a piece down the track

one of those long windy road kinda deals

 

[bean]

World's Markets May Close---New Bretton Woods
Berlusconi Says Leaders May Close World's Markets (Update1)
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said political leaders are discussing the idea of closing the world's financial markets while they ``rewrite the rules of international finance.''

``The idea of suspending the markets for the time it takes to rewrite the rules is being discussed,'' Berlusconi said today after a Cabinet meeting in Naples, Italy. A solution to More..the financial crisis ``can't just be for one country, or even just for Europe, but global.''

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much 8.1 percent in early trading and pared most of those losses after Berlusconi's remarks. The Dow was down 0.5 percent to 8540.52 at 10:10 in New York.

Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers are meeting in Washington today, and will stay in town for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings this weekend. European Union leaders may gather in Paris on Oct. 12, three days before a scheduled summit in Brussels, Berlusconi said today, while Group of Eight leaders may hold a meeting on the crisis ``in coming days,'' he said.

Berlusconi didn't give any details about what kind of rules leaders were looking to change, except to say that leaders are ``talking about a new Bretton Woods.''

The Bretton Woods Agreements were adopted to rebuild the international economic system after World War II in a hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. The aim of the agreements was to establish a monetary management system, initially by pegging currencies to gold. The IMF was set up later to help manage the international financial system
Less..

 

[Dowdy]

Peter Schiff saids the DOW and Gold will be 1:1 ratio sometime in the future. I think he could be right

 

[Nick Radge]

Would that Peter Schiff be the same one sprouting about the "3 best stocks you must own to beat the global meltdown" ...one of which was Great Southerns (GTP)?

 

[michael_selway]

Peter Schiff saids the DOW and Gold will be 1:1 ratio sometime in the future. I think he could be right

http://www.europac.net/media/Schiff-CNN-10-6-08_lg.wmv

Yep in that video

thx

MS

 

[chops_a_must]

What's your strategy at the moment Chops. Are you just holding long, or trading the moves.

Basically buying the volatility short term.

Looking at a flat and bullish outlook medium and long term.

 

[explod]

Gold is very much about politics/currencies or, if you like, the fundamental world stage. The 10 year gold chart shows gold in a long term up trend and in the last 12 months the gain is 16%

Gold sales desks world wide are reporting huge public sales and the depletion of stock. The big days for gold bugs must be close by.

Although, as I have always believed, it will probably not be allowed to bolt till after the Presidential election. Only a month away now though.

I have no big picture report this week because my last Saturday message above still holds.

Cheers to the gold bugs. But remember a lot of misery is going tocome to many people near you out of all this.

 

[Dowdy]

Would that Peter Schiff be the same one sprouting about the "3 best stocks you must own to beat the global meltdown" ...one of which was Great Southerns (GTP)?

Not too sure. The peter schiff i'm talking about predicted the dot com bust, housing bust, credit crunch so he's pretty good at analysing the market and the fundamentals

 

[GreatPig]

a senior Westpac Bank manager walked in and bought nearly $300,000 of physical gold

Hmm... remind me not to put any term deposits into Westpac any time soon.

If the rats are abandoning ship...

GP

 

[amory]

Gold Price - Where is it heading? wouldn't you all like to know. the answer is so simple I shouldn't even have to tell youse. Gold will go up & down like everything else & maybe sometimes in a contrarian direction

but it won't outperform, until such time as the USDollar goes into collapse mode, only then will the POG come into its own.

not looking too dapper, the dollar, is it? true true, but its not in freefall like the rest of the market. the dollar refusing to roll over & die, that's whats keeping gold down. WATCH THE DOLLAR! simple, isnt it.

another little hint: even if the market survives its current ailments, what will be the lasting outcome, the byproduct if you like? Massive Inflation, right? stands to reason, this will precede above-said collapse. so now you know what you're looking for, thanks very much.

 

[michael_selway]

Gold Price - Where is it heading? wouldn't you all like to know. the answer is so simple I shouldn't even have to tell youse. Gold will go up & down like everything else & maybe sometimes in a contrarian direction

but it won't outperform, until such time as the USDollar goes into collapse mode, only then will the POG come into its own.

not looking too dapper, the dollar, is it? true true, but its not in freefall like the rest of the market. the dollar refusing to roll over & die, that's whats keeping gold down. WATCH THE DOLLAR! simple, isnt it.

another little hint: even if the market survives its current ailments, what will be the lasting outcome, the byproduct if you like? Massive Inflation, right? stands to reason, this will precede above-said collapse. so now you know what you're looking for, thanks very much.

Hm tiem will tell...

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/flash/business/20081011_BEAR_MARKETS/economic_crisis.swf


http://www.worldofwallstreet.us/200...al-banks-not-rolling-forward-gold-leases.html

October 08, 2008
Big Shift In Gold Fundamentals: Central Banks Not Rolling Forward Gold Leases
Here's an important quote from a 10/7/2008 Financial Times article: "central banks... are not rolling forward old leases after maturity."

To understand what this is about, one must understand the basics of central bank gold leasing. The Gold Antitrust Action Committee (GATA) is convinced (and I accept their claims), that the US Treasury and its allies, including the European central banks, have been suppressing the price of gold for about a decade by strategically selling their gold. They do this, GATA claims, to limit gold's ability to supplant their fiat (not backed by anything) currencies (US$, GBP, Euro) while they continually debase these currencies.

Whether you accept GATA's claims or not, the fact is that the supply of gold (as seen by those buying and selling gold) has been increased by two central bank actions:

(1) Direct gold sales. The amount to be sold was negotiated four years ago by a treaty known as the Washington Agreement which expired in September 2008.

(2) Gold leases to third parties (at extremely low interest rates). Those third parties then sold the gold and used the proceeds to invest in other vehicles where they expected higher returns. When such a gold lease matures it must either be rolled over, or the lessee must obtain (buy) the leased amount of gold and return it to the central bank.

With this in mind we can see the importance of the following two quotes from the above article:

(1) "Central banks have all but stopped lending gold to commercial and investment banks and other participants in the precious metals market" - this eliminates a significant fraction of supply seen by the gold markets. It also implies that central banks have changed their view of the significance of gold and will probably not continue to sell it as they have in the past (again eliminating a significant fraction of gold supply, roughly equivalent to 20% of annual mine production).

(2) "central banks... are not rolling forward old leases after maturity." - this means that as these leases mature, the lessees must buy gold to return it to the central banks. This creates a significant new form of demand for gold.

Together this is a significant increase in demand relative to supply equivalent to something like a 20 to 25% reduction in gold mine production. This should, according to economics 101 and with all things being otherwise equal, push the price of gold significantly higher. Its interesting to note that what happened to the price of lead (Pb), the heavy metal, when it took only a 3% reduction of supply in the form of a mine closing in 2007. The price of lead (Pb) rose more than 100% (from $.80/lb to around $1.80/lb). Its a natural to conclude that the price of gold, based on this larger change in demand / supply dynamics, will react even more substantially. We'll see. Only God knows what is going to happen in the future, especially with the crazy things happening now.

Click here for an earlier discussion of central bank selling and gold fundamentals from August 2008.

 

[Sean K]

Not too sure. The peter schiff i'm talking about predicted the dot com bust, housing bust, credit crunch so he's pretty good at analysing the market and the fundamentals

Anything else that he predicted that didn't come true? Or, is he a 100% correct all the time analyst? Must be pretty wealthy...

 

[amory]

Hmm Time will tell, says Michael. then proceeds - quote

<< ....This should, according to economics 101 and with all things being otherwise equal, push the price of gold significantly higher. Its interesting to note that what happened to the price of lead (Pb), the heavy metal, when it took only a 3% reduction of supply in the form of a mine closing in 2007. The price of lead (Pb) rose more than 100% (from $.80/lb to around $1.80/lb). Its a natural to conclude that the price of gold, based on this larger change in demand / supply dynamics, will react even more substantially. We'll see. Only God knows what is going to happen in the future, especially with the crazy things happening now. >>

but all these arguments are not new. we all know or should know by now, having been bombarded by JimSinclair & other "experts" reasoning for quite a number of years, that the POG should be somewhere in the upper atmospheric regions ... trouble is it isn't & as long as it can be manipulated by one or another, it won't be! so much so that every now & again, it sinks right back into the "just another commodity" classification. but as long as some peasant in Bangladesh sews a small goldbar into his garment before sneaking across the border into India, that too is a misrepresentation.

that is the facts ... as against idle hand-wringing should be & would be speculation. that is where I am trying to supply the simple answer & what do I get in return? shrugged off at best, abused and ridiculed more often than not.

i) massive inflation ... wait for it. ii) a nice genuine collapse of the USDollar, such as they've been predicting since adam was a little boy ... it will happen when it does & iii) then Gold will take off into the stratosphere & not a day sooner ... serendipity!

<< Only God knows ...>> well now that makes two of us.

 

[MrBurns]

Anyone ever heard of JWS multi level marketing or gold sheckels ?