Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[cuttlefish]

Aussie gold price up 15% for the night.

Yes I feel sorry for the other carnage too, but cant say we did not point out the alternatives for preserving wealth.

Your decision to back physical gold has been proven right thus far. The USD capitulation when it occurs (and I see it occurring regardless of whether we're having an inflationary or deflationary depression) will be telling and will imo be when the real gains in gold ar made. But it seems that the denial might continue for a while yet.

I can understand china/japan wanting to maintain the status quo for a while yet but the size of the unfillable hole makes me think that they and the US govt have a very challenging task ahead if they think they can keep it stable without intervention.

China's level of USD based assets reminds me of the old adage ... "If you owe the bank $10,000 and you can't pay it bank - you've got a problem. If you owe the bank $10 million and you can't pay it back - the banks got a problem". And the real challenge for the cashed up asian/middle eastern economies is competing with each other for the mantle created by the US vacuum. How they all manage their USD asset situation will be telling and an interesting game of chess.

 

[Ageo]

There is alot of volatility with physical gold thow also, refineries have increased their spread to the largest i have seen in a while. No1 is buying anywhere near the current spot price because they`re not sure if this is sustainable growth or driven all by emotion.

 

[amory]

wherever the Gold price is heading, the leading Gold stocks sure aren't.
first they went down with everything else, then when the rest of the market made an about-turn & went up, the Golds continued on down & finished at their lows for the day. a very strange performance after how the POG went up overnite, and not very promising.

considering moreover, that the POG-attack was based on a good fundamental basis. there is nothing more conducive to a rise in gold than a fall in the USDollar, such as we saw happening overnite. go figure.....

 

[Whiskers]

Nunthewiser, anyone... care to nominate where gold's headed to... next turn point.

I'll say, hmmm lets see, 911.

 

[nunthewiser]

lol scroll back m8 . posted my guesses but yeah around that level u stated i would expect a slight pull back b4 continuing north

cheers

PS I WOULD LIKE TO STATE THAT MY IDEAS ON DIRECTION < NUMBERS <CALLS ARE MERELY MY OPINION < NO HEED IS TO BE TAKEN

 

[chops_a_must]

wherever the Gold price is heading, the leading Gold stocks sure aren't.
first they went down with everything else, then when the rest of the market made an about-turn & went up, the Golds continued on down & finished at their lows for the day. a very strange performance after how the POG went up overnite, and not very promising.

considering moreover, that the POG-attack was based on a good fundamental basis. there is nothing more conducive to a rise in gold than a fall in the USDollar, such as we saw happening overnite. go figure.....

Yep.

AUD gold goes blue sky at all time highs, and LGL and NCM get absolutely smashed...

It's looking pretty strong in european trading as well...

 

[M34N]

Yep.

AUD gold goes blue sky at all time highs, and LGL and NCM get absolutely smashed...

It's looking pretty strong in european trading as well...

+$25US now in Europe mid-morning, Dow futures took a sharp turnaround just before inline with the rising gold price.

Fear reigning supreme? Someone else got a reason for it?

EDIT: Found this on CNBC just before, more rumours it seems regarding the Euro trading session:

Banks were the top weighted losers on the index, with Royal Bank of Scotland down 33 percent on speculation that it was in talks for UK government funding, and Deutsche Bank down 14 percent on talk of a capital increase, though a financial source dismissed the speculation.

 

[bean]

Just maybe GOLD is about to take center stage.
Nearly there just got to get over US 900 tonight and we are off to the moon

Here is an interesting article worth reading

$$$ Impending US Economic Collapse/Death of Democracy Clive Maund 321gold

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund100608.html

 

[chops_a_must]

Yeah, was just going to say that another bunch of runs looks quite likely.

Also, Iceland saying overnight they could well be bankrupt is another factor. Certainly wont be last country in this fiasco to do so.

 

[Temjin]

Geez, all this is happening when the USD Index looks quite bullish in the short/medium term, from a technical analysis anyway. (at least it was yesterday hehe)

FEAR!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

A picture is worth a thousand words - if only irrational panic didn't apply to Aussie gold mining stocks! Aussie gold approaching $1300 per oz!

US DX topping out head formation, Aussie dollar may rebound a bit but not back to 90's at least? Slingshot now in full force

 

[chops_a_must]

Options now at the money. Stoked.

 

[Whiskers]

A picture is worth a thousand words - if only irrational panic didn't apply to Aussie gold mining stocks! Aussie gold approaching $1300 per oz!

US DX topping out head formation, Aussie dollar may rebound a bit but not back to 90's at least? Slingshot now in full force

Yep, noting AUD gold too, uncle... up abt 30% for the last few weeks.

Must eventually translate into share prices.

Not sure the USD is gonna crash anytime soon though. With the EU not able to get a united economic plan going, I'm tipping the US to look the better of a bad bunch in the medium term.

 

[Nick Radge]

Continuing on from post #5419, we can now see Gold is reversing out of the 'typical' retracement zone after completing a 3-wave correction. The EW mantra is validate or invalidate. Whilst prices continue to trace out their expected pattern we have no reason to doubt the analysis and expect the patterns to continue to unfold. However, we need to know what's to be expected in order to be alert for invalidation.

So far we have:

1. A strong impulse off the the Sep 11 lows.
2. A 3-wave counter trend move
3. A retracement into the 'typical' wave-2 or -B zone

We're still not to know if this is a wave-3 of a new trend higher or part of a larger corrective pattern. Firstly it doesn't matter because we're still afforded a trading opportunity, and secondly we can deduce what should happen from here if proven correct but also be aware at what point things are going wrong.

If this is a wave-3 we should trade straight higher with minimal wiggling and ideally we should shoot straight through the $1013 level. That level is defined by measuring the length of wave-1 or -A and adding it onto wave-2 or -B. Therefore $1013 is the minimum length a wave-3 will take and likely to be the maximum length that a wave-C will take, Therefore, if prices reverse off $1013, or thereabouts, then chances are we have a larger A-B-C pattern and not a new impulse which then means prices will fall again.

However, if prices zip straight through $1013 then we're certainly trading in a wave-3 impulse and continue to expect higher prices. Note to the left of that $1013 high we have the major highs? This to me adds some weight that a stall may occur, so if one is long one would be tightening up stops as that level is approached.

The other important level is the Sep 18 highs labeled here as wave-1 or -A. Note the high volume and weak closes? This means sellers and therefore adds a slight risk of a reversal and possible failure of the pattern.

That said until we're proven wrong we should expect prices to continue through to $1013 but the style in which that happens and how prices react at that high are also important indications for the next pattern.




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[refined silver]

Well CBs are stopping leasing gold!

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=643285

The 5yr average gold lease rate is 0.12%. It has spiked to over 20 times that. If you look at the kitco lease charts its all lease time frames that have gone up and are rising very fast

They are also not rolling over maturing leases.

This means either:

1. The leasees must buy back in the mkt the gold they have leased and sold sending the price skyward.

2. The CBs accept cash payment instead of gold payment, meaning the gold CBs have been counting on their books is sold and gone forever. (There has been much written about CB accounting procedures which allows leased gold to still be counted as an asset, and as part of their gold reserves. Some estimate as much as 15,000 tonnes have been leased over the last 10-15yrs.
)
3. With no new leasing. It means another source of gold supply has dried up.

Since so many previously unthinkable things have happened and are happening, I think we may not be far away from defaults on paper gold markets and the huge tightness in the physical markets taking over in price setting in the gold market. That would be a straight line price move. (But with many forms of paper gold missing out.)

 

[rederob]

UPDATE: Mint Widens Halt On Gold Coin Sales As Inventories Get Depleted
October 07, 2008: 02:16 PM EST

NEW YORK (Dow Jones) -- Citing extraordinary demand, the U.S. has broadened its freeze on sales of gold bullion coins in another sign that retail investors who are priced out of the futures markets have been piling up their holdings of the metal as a hedge against market uncertainty.

"Due to the extreme fluctuating market conditions for 2008, as well as current market conditions, gold and silver demand is unprecedented and the demand for platinum is unusually high," the U.S. Mint said in a memorandum released to its authorized purchasers.

Physical demand is through the roof!

 

[chops_a_must]

Physical demand is through the roof!

Lol.

Looks like my physical is going to be worth a whole heap.

We've got to see a big pop soon, surely.

 

[cuttlefish]

I'm regretting not buying more physical a little while back - only holding a fairly small amount but its nicely profitable. The gold equities can't ignore price rises forever (I hope.)

 

[Ageo]

Just watch out for those spreads, you will be buying at well above the spot price if buying physical.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I'm regretting not buying more physical a little while back - only holding a fairly small amount but its nicely profitable. The gold equities can't ignore price rises forever (I hope.)

Will there be a disconnect, as in the 1930's? Obviously the baby is getting thrown out with the bath water today - pick a stock, any stock! Even if the 'discounting' was due to less revenue from the copper offtakes it's hard to ignore the fundamental figures for pure profit from gold companies, at this point in time.

You can't beat a gold play for pure leverage, but it apparently needs more than logic and bare facts to convince the weak and/or irrational hands to hold tight to their goldies. I bought some NCM today.