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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Not in AUD gold price - I don't have an AUD gold price chart handy but you would be pretty much breakeven or maybe even slightly ahead.
 
Trembling Hand said:
Not sure what your point is. But I will be quiet from here. I must be rubbing the wrong way.
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No, all good healthy discussion, but you have asked how in previous posts how there is money to be made with gold, so I put up an example.

Apart from the classic ascending triangle set up 2 days ago, I think trying to predict gold, 'going forward' (as the doodle heads say), is impossible now with the transition to the 'new world order' of 'on the run' financial management rhetoric & contagion containment measures.

Gold looks like a countertrade to the Dow now?
 
Trembling Hand said:
Just my punt. Simply because of the volume. Who ever was on the other side (if it wasn't covering) will not be folding that easy. they never do.
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Thats very true. They've never folded easily for the last 7 years.

They certainly haven't folded here either. There'll be a lot more violent back and forth (which is good for you), but there will come a period when they are overun, when SWFs and others really start buying. In the 70s, CBs were sellers for the first 2/3 to 3/4 of the gold bull, ( not bearish - it just allowed big buyers to take positions), and buyers for the last 1/4. Will be the same again. (Then that will be good for us!)
 
What is going on in the US is now quite mind blowing. I think the Govt/Fed(s) are genuinely scared now. They'll need to inject a lot more funds to prop up the various institutions by the looks of it - which may include some of their major banks - and the question is can they afford it.

My view is they need to try to manage an orderly but large decline of the USD and they will also need to try to manage an orderly inflationary process. That is going to be like trying to balance a shovel - personally I don't think its achievable and the wildness of the swings is reflecting that.

I wonder if they'll come to a point where they'll consider the govt intervening to regulate the USD exchange rate (instead of trying to manipulate it the way they are now). They could possibly do a short term intervention and ratchet the dollar down in a series of moves over a period of 6 months or so and then try to somehow deregulate it again. That would allow them to let the insitutions that need to fail actually fail rather than continuing the bailouts and would also allow them to print the money they need to to fund the insitutions that are necessary. It would of course create a black market in the USD exchange rate in the meantime and effectively put the US economy into protection mode but if the problem is as big as its looking it might be an option they consider. (they've effectively gone the protectionist route by nationalising insitutions and all these bailouts anway haven't they?).

The only complexity with that idea is that the US is the reserve currency for other currencies and the amount of USD based assets held by foreign governments and institutions.

What I'm talking about is all a bit far fetched I know but just thinking aloud I guess.
 
Another option they may consider is to have a moratorium, a bit like the govt has done in Australia with illegal guns. The US Govt could offer a 90 day window in which bad debt/securitised debt could be exchanged for a particular (new) form of Govt fixed interest security.

It is a stupid idea, but it just the kind of thing the US might do, because it will give stability until after the election, and it doesn't involve immediate printing of money.
 

Yes when it all depends on the whims of government officials.. pretty hard to predict anything longer term than scalping..

I guess technically last night did look like a reversal on very high volume.. then again all of the volume occurred on the way up and the selloff was really on low volume (gold 5min attached).

More importantly I think the USD will find it very hard to rally much further than it has (see trendline against the EUR attached + closeup of what looks to me like a convincing bottom last week) which should help to put a bit of a floor under gold at least...

...........unless the government actually decides to drop money out of helicopters - since today's Wall Street geniuses would probably use the piles of fallen notes to continue buying government bonds right up until their calorific value exceeds their price. What's the world coming to when an eight figure bonus isn't enough to attract someone who understands money! I'm just looking forward to the free garden mulch:
 

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  • EURUSD weekly 2000-2008.JPG
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  • EURUSD bottom mid Sept 08.JPG
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Uncle Festivus said:
Picking some arbitrary point in time , say last week when gold was $735, to todays close around $850 would give you a return of 15%, for the week. Anything else come close to that?
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Thousands of stocks actually. Not to mention a host of other commodities as well.

But stock isn't as sexy as gold.
 
With all the bailouts announced over the past two weeks, gold will deviate from oil trend in the short term. And the worst is not over yet so having a percentage of your portfolio in gold is not a bad idea.
 
wayneL said:
160% on what? Margin?

Dumb dumb dumb way of looking at profit.
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No margin. Bought LGL call options oct - nov - dec
Been selling some on way up buying gold and buying more gold shares
For example bought some LGL 2.5 oct call option s for 0.04 cents
sold yesterday for .40cents with proceeds purchase more gold and gold shares

LGL had another good day on US markets so may sell some more but still have 2.75 3.0 3.25 and 3.5 and my nov and dec
some May 09

GOLD IS GOING TO THE MOON === A MUST READ
WHAT PRICE GOLD???
http://http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=173208
 
wayneL said:
Here we go again.
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You must work for the banking system Waynel. They hate gold and us gold bugs because because they dont' get any commissions from it. Want us to make deposits as a safe haven. Looking very unsafe at the moment. Like Bean I have done very well out of gold the last week.

In fact most of the financial system talk gold down, no trailing fees etc.

Anyhow finished on a one month high at the close this morning and up $100 for the week.
 
Eh? I'm long gold in a big way atm explod... futures and futures options.

Take a look at my avatar, what do you see?

Have a look at my post #5161

wayneL said:
OK officially joining the gold bulls here.
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I've traded gold futures for years long and short.

The banking system IS THE ENEMY. I hate banks (but I'll still trade them )
 
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