Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Kauri said:
Many traders in the commodity currencies have been left scratching their heads with gold rocketing some 5% on the day and showing no correlation to Kiwi price action which traditionally would be bid on such a rally in gold prices. However, the reason for the breakdown in the correlation has more to do with the factors behind the run up in gold. Maybe gold is now starting to trade back on the traditional themes of a hedge against risk and flight to safety rather than the gold that had been driving higher over the past years on the growth story. If this is indeed true, then Kiwi would not benefit in the same way from the higher commodity price as the driving force behind the gold move would be based on heightened risk aversion, something that forces Kiwi selling. I tunk... and hope.. :)

Crude Invent. Down 6.3 mln; Gas Down 3.3 mln

Cheers
..............Kauri
Click to expand...


Thanks for making some sense of it.. what has really blown me away tonight is the complete lack of correspondence between what gold is doing with what the USD, Euro and Oil are doing. It's very unusual. Maybe it does suggest that 'the market has changed'.

The biggest question in my mind over these recent weeks has been, why are people so eager to receive a return of 2% on treasuries when CPI is running at almost 9%? Since when was a -7% dividend considered something worth having? Gold's consistent 0% dividend and international acceptance as a store of value has always won the bid when interest rates on government currencies became strongly negative. Hopefully tonight is a semaphore that logic will prevail.. and not just some big latecomers who got caught on the wrong side of a trade!
 
Uncle Festivus said:
Throw away the charts, entering uncharted territory dictated by fear, greed and dare I say it, official intervention (in all markets) where necessary?

A period of $50 daily swings in POG, lot's of money to be made (or lost) on the swings ie nice $20 spike down to $764 just then then bounce up again. DXY up/down 2 pts!

This is going to be a wild ride! Decoupling time?
Click to expand...

Kauri said:
Decoupling.... what/who is decoupling now.... not the old "the world economy from the US economy " chestnut, that decoupling theory actually derailed... so who is decoupling from who... now ???
Cheers
...........Kauri
Click to expand...


barrett said:
Thanks for making some sense of it.. what has really blown me away tonight is the complete lack of correspondence between what gold is doing with what the USD, Euro and Oil are doing. It's very unusual. Maybe it does suggest that 'the market has changed'.
Click to expand...

Gold de-coupling from everything in action!
 
Its all about flight to safety.

With the volatility that's coming TA may be not much help, but thats not a flag forming as we speak is it?

Those who went to bed early are in for a shock in the morning! :eek:
 
refined silver said:
Its all about flight to safety.

With the volatility that's coming TA may be not much help, but thats not a flag forming as we speak is it?

Those who went to bed early are in for a shock in the morning! :eek:
Click to expand...

Oh are they what! Up a cool 60 bucks so far at 943... I think it might retrace a little from here though. My golds all up 10% so far. Even so I feel like finding the buyers and banging their heads against a very hard surface and saying 'where the f... were you last week and the week before!'. I mean, everyone suddenly decides to move into gold at once, when all this crap has been so f-ing obvious for years? Times like tonight the market shows what a pissweak measure of value it really is. Anyway congratulations to anyone who went long at 735 or thereabouts.. I nearly did.. but no cigar
 
BTW, my short term Idiot Wave forecast for gold after today's move is for either

1/ Price continues strong upward momentum

2/ Price retraces some part of this move before moving up

3/ Price retraces all of this move before moving up

4/ It's all downhill from now

5/ Price stalls and moves sideways

:cool:
 
cuttlefish said:
Why still optimistic ....

The biggest reason is in the event of a USD/global currency related black swan sort of event I still see gold as having the potential to rise very sharply and significantly.
Click to expand...


Looks like a few people want to exchange their sorbent tissue for something of value tonight.

The thought of the US failing is a scary thought still - but disorganised knee jerk reactions by the treasury haven't looked convincing at all. The US is looking a lot like a badly managed business trying to juggle cashflow and aged debtors and trading themselves deeper and deeper into a mess at the moment - there doesn't seem to be much order to it.
 
wayneL said:
BTW, my short term Idiot Wave forecast for gold after today's move is for either

1/ Price continues strong upward momentum

2/ Price retraces some part of this move before moving up

3/ Price retraces all of this move before moving up

4/ It's all downhill from now

5/ Price stalls and moves sideways

:cool:
Click to expand...

Bases covered there...I predict you get it right.
 
Investing in Gold ? Just curious.

I presumed that most Gold investors simply invest in companies that mine gold.

Is it possible to directly invest in the gold price, or do you have to actually physically buy and keep it ? You can invest directly in the commodity price right ?
 
deadset said:
Investing in Gold ? Just curious.

I presumed that most Gold investors simply invest in companies that mine gold.

Is it possible to directly invest in the gold price, or do you have to actually physically buy and keep it ? You can invest directly in the commodity price right ?
Click to expand...

Some of the direct gold investment options would include gold futures, gold ETF's (e.g. GOLD which is listed on the ASX and tradeable like any other ASX listed stock), unallocated gold from perth mint, allocated gold from perth mint, or direct purchases of gold from bullion dealers (e.g. AGR Matthey, Ainslie bullion etc.).
 
wayneL said:
BTW, my short term Idiot Wave forecast for gold after today's move is for either

1/ Price continues strong upward momentum

2/ Price retraces some part of this move before moving up

3/ Price retraces all of this move before moving up

4/ It's all downhill from now

5/ Price stalls and moves sideways

:cool:
Click to expand...

everything and anything well covered... now how to sell it to the punters... methinks your address must be No1 Wall St... :)

Cheers
............Kauri
 
bean said:
A few US Gold Index have now filled gaps that they made in December 2005.
I always thought that for them to be able to fill the gaps POG would be about US 550-630. However it appears that needs not be the case. The various US Gold Index have made a significant bottom. POG will follow higher quickly. The US $ will now more than likely drop 50%. Of course when the GM market starts its next wave down Goldies may follow to a degree but should not take out this bottom otherwise (POG may be ready to start a Bear).

How confident am I

Never purchased options before until a week or so ago had to be 99.99% correct of the direction, price and time
So bought Puts sold them wednesday.
The out of money call options on NCM, LGL, OZL I purchase on thursday and friday should be well in the money over the next few days. And I am not selling quickly.
The stocks led POG down now they will lead it up
But POG may have huge daily moves but mainly up.
The train has left the station!!!
(but remember we may have to have a few stops along the way for the GM markets. And to Pick up survivors, late comers and new believers )
Click to expand...

A US Gold site I subscribed to picked the bottom last week.

All the out of money call options I purchased. I think are going to be in or near money now/soon

I also said wave three had started.

I was wrong its only wave TWO
 
bean said:
A US Gold site I subscribed to picked the bottom last week.

All the out of money call options I purchased. I think are going to be in or near money now/soon

I also said wave three had started.

I was wrong its only wave TWO
Click to expand...
Gold still hasn ´t made a higher high or low yet has it....or broken critical resistance around $800. Therefore how can anyone have called a difinitive bottom... other than pluck.

Hope it was though for you bean.

But werent you calling for $600s......

:confused: as hell...
 
kennas said:
Gold still hasn ´t made a higher high or low yet has it....or broken critical resistance around $800. Therefore how can anyone have called a difinitive bottom... other than pluck.

Hope it was though for you bean.

But werent you calling for $600s......

:confused: as hell...
Click to expand...

Kennas
Check the POG and charts
Last night It jumped US$ 90
to about US$ 870

HUI almost 12% up
 
Holy M@#$!@#% @#$%@!!

That's the biggest move ever over the last 2 decades!

I thought I was dreaming when I just about to left for work this morning and saw the financial news reporting gold is now at USD $860ish. I was like....WTF??!! That's impossible, something is wrong!

Now I just wish I had brought more at the mid $700s and some junior shares, but already fully commited. Oh well, at least there are profits. :D

I wondered how would our junior gold shares do today...it would probably sky rocket to some extraordinary value.
 

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