Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[refined silver]

If this really is the end, and look at the evidence:

1. Daily bankrupcies of the largest financial institutions on planet - centred in the US, but affecting many other places.
2. Unwinding of the quadrillion dollar OTC derivative mkt which has no clearing house, no regulations, no market, is dependent on the loser for payment etc, has just started.
3. Money market funds starting to fail.
4. The FIDC which had about $50b is now said to be very low and needs to go the Fed.
5. The SIPC which is broker insurance, is funded to $1.5b!! How soon are they going to go broke?
6. ETFs failing. Pool silver and gold accounts in big trouble.

What are the options?

Cash in hand? Physical gold or silver in hand or safety deposit box? very select shares in PM co's that are ASX and on CHESS in your name, or if overseas, either certificated, or DRS? (otherwise if the broker goes belly up, you'd want to have had a lawyer check the custodial clauses were airtight.)

Govt bonds. But how long til these blow as well?

 

[refined silver]

But watch out here she goes

Yep nice. Not quite end of the world stuff yet though.

 

[wayneL]

OK officially joining the gold bulls here.

 

[Whiskers]

Yep nice. Not quite end of the world stuff yet though.

Yep nice alright.

Keeps my much critised EW count in play.

That 802 makes iii of 3 of 5 for wave C which I'm thinking will be wave 1. By my count (if it's right) it should get up around 850 for C and 5 again pretty soon before it corrects into wave 2.

PS: Well make that 817 odd for iii, so far.

 

[refined silver]

Yep nice. Not quite end of the world stuff yet though.

Well now its up nearly $40 in less than an hour. Thats the biggest up move this bull mkt since 01.

Maybe it is the end of the world?

 

[wayneL]

Yep nice alright.

Keeps my much critised EW count in play.

That 802 makes iii of 3 of 5 for wave C which I'm thinking will be wave 1. By my count (if it's right) it should get up around 850 for C and 5 again pretty soon before it corrects into wave 2.

That was nothing to do with EW counts mate.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Looky at dem dar shorts go runnin' pa!

Go Ricky, Go Ricky

Elvis has left the building.......................................

Ahem, regaining some composure, it was good while it lasted

(NEM up 7.5%, LGL up 9% so far, against Dow down 200 = decouple)

 

[Trembling Hand]

Well now its up nearly $40 in less than an hour. Thats the biggest up move this bull mkt since 01.

Maybe it is the end of the world?

And some pretty big volume moving too.

I tried to help you guys throwing my 1 lot trade into the mix on the break.

Or maybe it was Whiskers EW that did it

 

[Kauri]

Many traders in the commodity currencies have been left scratching their heads with gold rocketing some 5% on the day and showing no correlation to Kiwi price action which traditionally would be bid on such a rally in gold prices. However, the reason for the breakdown in the correlation has more to do with the factors behind the run up in gold. Maybe gold is now starting to trade back on the traditional themes of a hedge against risk and flight to safety rather than the gold that had been driving higher over the past years on the growth story. If this is indeed true, then Kiwi would not benefit in the same way from the higher commodity price as the driving force behind the gold move would be based on heightened risk aversion, something that forces Kiwi selling. I tunk... and hope..

Crude Invent. Down 6.3 mln; Gas Down 3.3 mln

Cheers
..............Kauri

 

[refined silver]

And some pretty big volume moving too.
I tried to help you guys throwing my 1 lot trade into the mix on the break.
Or maybe it was Whiskers EW that did it

Thanks mate! It all helps!

The small specs were had loaded up on shorts on the last COT report. Ouch!

The nicest thing about the last hour (wonder how long it lasts!) is that gold shares are finally going the opposite way to the general mkt. They are supposedly the only stocks that historically have a Beta or inverse relationship to the normal mkts but we haven't seen it much lately.

HUI is now up nearly 10% and Dow down 240pts.

 

[Whiskers]

That was nothing to do with EW counts mate.

That's true, cos not many people believe in such stuff... but if they did and had the knack, they'd have seen it coming.

But wait a minute... are ya sure! I did have it forecast on the thread though. Wish the bludy XAO would turn around soon too... that'd show em.

But my FA saw it coming anyway... this EW thing is proving to be of some value in terms of range finding though.

 

[wayneL]

Holy Crap!

Another > $10 in 3 minutes.

 

[Trembling Hand]

This hour is going to set records for volume traded. (recent history

The shorts haven't stepped aside yet.

 

[refined silver]

I tried to help you guys throwing my 1 lot trade into the mix on the break.

Let us know when you close it. You could buy all the goldies a drink on it! (especially if its still open.)

 

[wayneL]

That's true, cos not many people believe in such stuff... but if they did and had the knack, they'd have seen it coming.

But wait a minute... are ya sure! I did have it forecast on the thread though. Wish the bludy XAO would turn around soon too... that'd show em.

But my FA saw it coming anyway... this EW thing is proving to be of some value in terms of range finding though.

For any psych students out , here is a study in cognitive bias.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Let us know when you close it. You could buy all the goldies a drink on it! (especially if its still open.)

LOL!! Sorry but like a true flipper I left most of it for the true belivers. Long gone

 

[Kauri]

With a surge in gold buying as the final sign of capitulation, Asian accounts rumoured to be prolific buyers, the Yen is also rising as Japanese money managers take more chips off the table. USD/JPY has dropped to 104.70 US session lows, and looks set to probe lower, as US equities remain in a sustained slump, off 2.2% this morning. The Yen has firmed across the board; EUR/JPY is down to 148.65 having peaked at 151.53 in Asia last night, the low has been 148.23, however with yesterday"s 147.07 lows as the downside marker stops are meant to be quite a way from here.
AUD/JPY has collapsed to 82.51 from 84.05 at the NY open, even a buoyant gold price can't save the Oz it seems; gold is up a staggering fifty bucks at present - the reason it isn"t helping the Aussie is that this is a defensive move into gold, and a general de-leveraging of market positions which is hurting carry trades. GBP/JPY has dropped from 189.40 to 187.90 and is actually holding in quite well, mainly because traders are dumping long EUR/GBP positions which are pressuring EUR.

Oh well... back to work..

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[refined silver]

SEC just issued rule against naked shorting in all listed stocks today.

Could help gold shares if shorters haven't actually borrowed the shares. This was already illegal, just might make a difference if its now going to be enforced.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Aussie gold $1050, up $78, 8%

 

[refined silver]

LOL!! Sorry but like a true flipper I left most of it for the true belivers. Long gone

We need it! Got a lot of recent red to make back up!!!