Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Whiskers]

That's... interesting, mate... but what's it all mean?

What are the heavy lines? Are they software generated?


Basically it's my take on EW... showing that we may be in an intermediate W3 of a larger W5... so expect.. and as happened... a sharp impulsive drop...

Cheers
.........Kauri

That's what I was afraid you meant.

I got worried as soon as it broke to a new low, had a target of 729. If it broke that and headed for 629, I would have made a right royal mess of my chart, but I'm not sure yet.

It's in a consolidation zone between 800 and 250 :

Nah, gotta give it a bit more upside... 1100 and 250.

But seriously though, I'm thinking as I mentioned earlier, everytime oil and the USD index move gold gets utthedoor: for awhile. But Oil and the USD are due to correct back anytime so that should send gold back toward 800 again pretty quick.

 

[Whiskers]

The other positive fundamental factor is the reducing mine supply world wide, combined with a growing affluent population with a cultural attachment to gold.

There is very clear value in some of the junior gold stocks and this final fall will hopefully cause the 'final clearance' sort of capitulation that is needed for a steady recovery to start to build.

One of the risks is that some of the better quality juniors will be the subject of opportunistic takeover bids and shareholders won't get to realise the full potential of the assets.

I totally agree there and as someone else mentioned earlier, some are even virtually priced at their cash account.

I've certainly earmarked a few that could reward handsomely in the medium to longer term.

 

[explod]

Barricun 4 bean but,

the Tanks are broke,

dont' know it yet

I got gold and wont get wet

 

[refined silver]

There's been a massive financial earthquake deep in the bowels of the system. Everyone was waiting for a huge gold tsunami to come crashing ashore.

Instead, the tide suddenly started to go out. Then it kept going out and out (while the USD went up and up and up) further than anyone expected, creating a huge spectacle. Many people went down on the beach to look at this strange phenomena.

Maybe they should have been running for the hills........

 

[bean]

POG has closed down 9 days straight on Comex
= record
What goes down must go UP?
Well in Golds case anyway

Some rocket fuel to help IKE upgraded
And
Another one bites the dust
http://http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080911/lehman.html

Filling up yesterday and today
I Have a Full tank

POG up $16
But better still US GOLD index HUI +10%
XAU + 10%
Start of Wave 3 has commenced?

Waited a long time for this!!!!

 

[Sean K]

POG up $16
But better still US GOLD index HUI +10%
XAU + 10%
Start of Wave 3 has commenced?

Waited a long time for this!!!!

Yes, you have.

Calling a bottom?

 

[Kauri]

POG up $16
But better still US GOLD index HUI +10%
XAU + 10%
Start of Wave 3 has commenced?

Waited a long time for this!!!!

I don't get the best results subdividing waves into smaller fractals... butt... if this was the 3rd (blue line), of the 5th (white line), it pulled up just short of the typical 162%, before tracing into a 4th??? as for bottom picking, I'm not piling into that yet... one days push up doesn't provide relief.. on its own..
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[explod]

I don't get the best results subdividing waves into smaller fractals... butt... if this was the 3rd (blue line), of the 5th (white line), it pulled up just short of the typical 162%, before tracing into a 4th??? as for bottom picking, I'm not piling into that yet... one days push up doesn't provide relief.. on its own..
Cheers
..........Kauri

I sit between yourself and Bean. The change is on but needs confirmation by a clear rise over the next couple of trading days. I too have been a big fan of the HUI as a turning point. Those gold bugs just seem to smell it. The weekly HUI looks very interesting indeed.

But my copy would not post

 

[Sean K]

I sit between yourself and Bean. The change is on but needs confirmation by a clear rise over the next couple of trading days. I too have been a big fan of the HUI as a turning point. Those gold bugs just seem to smell it. The weekly HUI looks very interesting indeed.

But my copy would not post

Yes, but there was a significant breakout as well, that I was about to put the house on, that failed terribly.

That was when I friend ....?? went to the mint....

Others have done the same.

Not banking on ANYTHING, and being willing to sell, or buy, if your analysis is going pear shaped by the charts, might be a thought...

Must go, getting kicked out of this internet cafe.

caio!

 

[bean]

A few US Gold Index have now filled gaps that they made in December 2005.
I always thought that for them to be able to fill the gaps POG would be about US 550-630. However it appears that needs not be the case. The various US Gold Index have made a significant bottom. POG will follow higher quickly. The US $ will now more than likely drop 50%. Of course when the GM market starts its next wave down Goldies may follow to a degree but should not take out this bottom otherwise (POG may be ready to start a Bear).

How confident am I

Never purchased options before until a week or so ago had to be 99.99% correct of the direction, price and time
So bought Puts sold them wednesday.
The out of money call options on NCM, LGL, OZL I purchase on thursday and friday should be well in the money over the next few days. And I am not selling quickly.
The stocks led POG down now they will lead it up
But POG may have huge daily moves but mainly up.
The train has left the station!!!
(but remember we may have to have a few stops along the way for the GM markets. And to Pick up survivors, late comers and new believers )

 

[bean]

FED meets tuesday. I am hearing rumors surprise 50 point rate cut before then!!!
Helicopters on the ready.

http://http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080913/lehman_meeting.html

 

[noirua]

Has gold really gone down much in Aussie$ terms. So the price will appear weak in US$ prices. Gold mines are over depressed, in Australia, as mining costs should not increase much going forward with the oil price tanking.

 

[CanOz]

oil price tanking.

This (oil's tanking) is a retracement at best. The medium term demand for oil may have taken some instituational money out of the market but oil will not go below 80 USD per barrel. I would be surprised to see it go much under 100.

Once the USD finished its little rally maybe gold will resume its bull.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[Whiskers]

I don't get the best results subdividing waves into smaller fractals... butt... if this was the 3rd (blue line), of the 5th (white line), it pulled up just short of the typical 162%, before tracing into a 4th??? as for bottom picking, I'm not piling into that yet... one days push up doesn't provide relief.. on its own..
Cheers
..........Kauri

Well kauri, ya got me to step back and have another look at the big picture for my weekend homework.

Still not set in concrete, but if it goes to sub 729 for any length of time... or even hangs down around these numbers for any length of time, my plan will need revamping.

However, I've noticed interestingly, that this drop has stopped short of the (well, at east my) wave (3). That bodes well for a more impulsive, greater uptrend in the longer term.

In the short term though, I'm still going with an Expanded Flat for wave 1 of an impulse up.

An interesting note that I find about Expanded Flats is that they "virtually always precede or follow extensions". On that point my initial target for C and 2 was 801 but with the caution that C could extend, which I reckon it did.

Just keeping an open mind though, another possibility is that my (a), (b) and (c) maybe (1), (2) and (3) with this Expanded Flat as (4) opening up that bludy 250 or somethin that those jokers were foolin with earlier.

But, I'm still pretty comfortable with my 2 and heading for 1 of (5) of 3 atm.

 

[noirua]

This (oil's tanking) is a retracement at best. The medium term demand for oil may have taken some instituational money out of the market but oil will not go below 80 USD per barrel. I would be surprised to see it go much under 100.
Once the USD finished its little rally maybe gold will resume its bull.
Cheers,
CanOz

Exchange rates are the major key here. Reduced oil prices will cut mining costs. A depreciating Aussie$ will help keep up the returns on Aussie gold sales.

 

[barrett]

I sit between yourself and Bean. The change is on but needs confirmation by a clear rise over the next couple of trading days. I too have been a big fan of the HUI as a turning point. Those gold bugs just seem to smell it. The weekly HUI looks very interesting indeed.

But my copy would not post

The premium stocks in the sector can also be useful indicators, seeing as they tend to be last to turn down and the first to turn up.

The world's best large cap gold and silver company (on asset quality&growth, management&technical team, production & cash cost growth, diversification, political risk, paper etc)? Arguably perennial market favourite Agnico Eagle (AEM:NYSE). AEM was the last to go down in the recent selloff, along with Ian Telfer's Goldcorp (GG:NYSE), another top shelf large cap gold.

Noticed on Friday AEM had a 17% one day rise on no news, and on near-record volume. As Kauri said, one day does not make a reversal, not from a selldown of this size.. anyway, just wanted to note the strength of this astonishing one-day move in AEM. Bear rallies can be sharp but it would be unusual for them to have such huge volume. Also noticed the RSI non-confirmation of AEM's new low made last week.

What other sorts of things will people here be looking out for to confirm a reversal in gold?
Cheers

 

[noirua]

Perhaps gold bugs should consider a situation with a long bull market in the US$. That trend may not be consistent and short periods of bearish behaviour, perhaps covering several months, may mislead many an investor.
All previous bull and bear runs have been overdone. We may see the Aussie$ down to AU$1.30 - AU$1.40 to the greenback in 2008 and AU$1.50 - AU$1.60 in 2009. That's if previous runs come to pass, once again.

 

[CanOz]

Perhaps gold bugs should consider a situation with a long bull market in the US$. That trend may not be consistent and short periods of bearish behaviour, perhaps covering several months, may mislead many an investor.
All previous bull and bear runs have been overdone. We may see the Aussie$ down to AU$1.30 - AU$1.40 to the greenback in 2008 and AU$1.50 - AU$1.60 in 2009. That's if previous runs come to pass, once again.

The USD is not fundamentally capable of a bull market let alone a sustained rally. Once the interest rate differentials and the facts of the US economy finally dawn on the dollar bulls they will be dropping the buck like bad habit. The US Government is insolvent and getting buried under an even bigger pile of debt than anyone could ever have imagined.

The rally may last another month or so, but its day will come again soon. The Aussie and Canadian Dollars are backed with solid fiscal management and stronger economies.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[explod]

I sit between yourself and Bean. The change is on but needs confirmation by a clear rise over the next couple of trading days. I too have been a big fan of the HUI as a turning point. Those gold bugs just seem to smell it. The weekly HUI looks very interesting indeed.

But my copy would not post

And I think we are going to have it. Gold up almost $US30 since this time last Friday, 20 of that this morning. The HUI will lead the way and last weeks Weekly chart will complete the reversal. A look back for the last 5 years indicates that it is the HUI reversal as in progress now that has been the best indicator of the next upleg. Most pundits expect plus $US1200 before years end. We will see.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Is this the precipice? All things going to mush in a big way today over the Lemon Bros no brainer - Futures/markets down, gold up.